Right, but my point was that we all have a pretty good idea of where this is heading in terms of medical developments, ICU capacity, spread of the virus… He’s a window into Wall Street’s thinking. There’s a big gap between the two, if he represents an average Wall Street finance bro’s thinking.
More simply: it’s likely the market isn’t pricing this in correctly yet.
This is where finance bros are all like, “I model cash flows for a living, which basically means starting with current period free cash flow and increasing it exponentially at some wild-assed-guess of a growth rate. All I have to do is change the label from “free cash flow” to “deaths” and I am instantly smarter than any epidemiologist. Thank you for attending my TED talk.”
Yeah someone really, really needs to explain to finance bros that discounted cash flow can be done with an 8th fucking grade education. The reason you get paid so much is because the job absolutely sucks, not because you’re special.
My wife and daughter are scheduled to fly to Ireland in May with about 5 other families. At this point, I assume its 100% they’re not going, regardless of whether its formally cancelled by the airline. The travel agent is encouraging us to buy travel insurance, which is something I’ve never done. Looking at the policy, it seems completely unlikely that there would be a payoff:
This can’t be +EV, right?
Wait I thought we were talking about the DOW. I thought you meant Wall. St. going up because of their tax break.
Yeah employer match for sure.
DO
NOT
BUY
TRAVEL
INSURANCE
still not approved for options. fml dow 18k is 2 bad days away.
but online poker is sure taking off
Sorry my bad I might have mixed up conversations about corporate tax rates for large corps vs a question about participating in a 401k to get a personal tax deduction. I think we’re all on the same page in terms a guidance.
That’s where I’m at. I mean, it doesn’t cover the airline exeperiencing financial default (cessation of all flights) because it’s been more than 15 days since we purchased our tickets. And it doesn’t cover the airline or tour group cancelling an individual flight, nor does it cover us just changing plans without specified causes. There’s no chance this would pay off for us, and I feel like ripping this travel agent for recommending it.
It covers essentially nothing outside of medical emergencies (that aren’t pandemic based) that have to be extensively documented. Its a ridiculous scam, that I have fallen for in the past and been refused reimbursement.
Travel Agents: we should still exist because we provide personalized service and add value
Also Travel Agents: you should but a worthless “insurance” product that will never pay off
(Sounds a lot like financial advisors!)
My non-expert opinion: Nothing has systemically changed to the point that long term investment doesn’t make sense. Still, it’s prudent to be cautious. Make full use of the employer match and save the rest in cash. Especially if you have dependents.
“The markets are all perfect, like the letter was perfect, the transcription was perfect, right?”
What could make the markets go down, some plausible stories
In a couple weeks US gets hit with an initial surge but rate of growth slows considerably and is credibly tested. The opposite happens in Mexico. Complete lack of social distancing, inability of the AMLO government to enforce any kind of quarantine or lockdowns. Mexican cases start entering the US. Trump sees this as an opportunity and indefinitely shuts down US Mexico border for all goods and people.
Trump puts in on retaliatory tariffs for China in an attempt to shift blame from his own bungling of the virus response. china responds by limiting exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients to US
Lockdowns are lifted and new cases start to grow again on an exponential path in China or Italy
A life insurance or other insurance company goes bankrupt and needs to be bailed out
What could make markets go up, some plausible stories
Basically 2 weeks of nothing unexpectedly bad happening. Social distancing slows the spread in Germany and France to a linear growth pattern.
NSAID thing is proven to be correct. Now risk of death for those under 60 becomes lower than influenza
Other antiviral treatment is proven to be effective at reducing mortality rate or shortening treatment time in the ICU
Solid science showing that warm weather will have a big impact limiting transmission along with an early heat wave forecast for Europe in beginning April
Why would a peak be anywhere in sight? What % of people do you believe are infected in Lombardy currently?
This seems likely, it could get really ugly, but I think they’ll realize they have to let trade through within a month or two and just do the most inhumane stuff possible to the immigrants trying to flee.
Wow, I didn’t think I could get more shook.
Can’t believe I missed this one, that’s definitely a thing.
Why do you think this one causes a major stock market drop?
These all make sense.
Because of their lockdowns flattening the curve to below capacity.
Fed doing an unscheduled overnight $500B repo according to CNBC.
Ok yeah, but if it only stays below capacity as long as we continue with lockdowns I don’t see any end in sight, particularly if only a few % of Lombardy being infected totally destroyed capacity.
Brag: Thought my networth was down ~30-35% according to my finance tracking, and was like damn that stinks but not too bad. But it turns out it wasn’t tracking my savings/checking account and had those at 0, so turns out I’m only 20-25% down. Good to know I’m psychologically prepared for 35% when/if it comes! Still targeting S&P ~2000ish and ~1500ish as stops where I make large buys
I wonder if they send out the cheerleaders at 3:30 PM today?