Investing (aka GameStonk and other gambling events)

Sure it’s a concern. Misleading headline though as she never even actually mentioned bitcoin by name. Considering bitcoin transactions are public record and traceable anyone using it to fund terrorism can and should face consequences.

Likely result is exchanges being forced into increased KYC regulation which is fine be me.

Right. The good private equity funds, putting aside ethics etc., are not giving random people with $10,000 to invest a piece of good deals at any kind of reasonable fee structure, if at all. I would much rather just buy Blackstone stock than give them money to invest in a fund, because the fees are outrageous.

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Help a layman like me out. Isnt one of the advantages of bitcoin that it is decentralized and untraceable? I get that every transaction is public record, but that doesnt mean that the actions can be traced back to a single person right? Wouldnt we know who Satoshi is otherwise?

This is getting out of my area of expertise but you might find these articles interesting. In my opinion the “bad people use it” argument isn’t really even a valid criticism of bitcoin anyway. Yellen said the same thing several years ago and of course not much came of it. I would bet that far more illegal transactions are completed using cash than any crypto, even once accounting for difference in money supply.

There are steps you can take to make transactions more private, but all it takes is one slip up in your transaction chain and your whole illegal operation could go down.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/03/why-criminals-cant-hide-behind-bitcoin

https://www.lawfareblog.com/cryptocurrency-and-dismantling-terrorism-financing-campaigns

I agree and I also have most of my invested net worth in a portfolio of US Equities/Intl Equities/Treasuries.

BTC is on sale! Get in while you can!

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Order filled today at 30.25k and thrilled with that

Ready for the trolling if I’m wrong :innocent:

Based on the giraffe it seems like everyone is buying at 30k

Its this dynamic that will make the crash, whenever it happens, very tough.A rational market where short seller can short based on fundamentals puts a floor in the market when they “buy to cover”. But with very few short sellers covering there will be few buyers when the crash happens.

At least that is my theory. I have been moving into cash on the way up and selling OOTM puts to get at least some return on the cash in my account. Ots not without risk but I am only selling puts on stocks with actual revenue that I won’t mind owning if I do get assigned.

Calling Peter Schiff …

This is like a perfect storm for a short term SPY short with all of the euphoria + stim, bonds, pinches released and high expected earnings and some transgressions to take care of all that.

What are your thoughts on real estate syndication? It’s as close as I’m willing to get to real estate (I don’t want to be a landlord…too much effort). It seems like there are some deals to be had. Maybe not as good as what you have in mind, though. I’ve heard good things, but I haven’t had a chance to really look into it yet.

True enough, bad people use hundos, and they got rid of 500 euro notes because of bad people using them. Sad!

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They can be great. They can also be terrible.

The key question is “why am I being offered this deal?” There is a very healthy and liquid market for institutional equity right now, so someone doing a syndication is probably either a) not experienced enough to access institutional capital or b) offering below market terms. There are exceptions.

I would only ever consider a multifamily syndication deal. What you want to see:

  1. No capped upside. I’ve seen tons of deals where the investor gets paid 8-10% on equity. Seems good in a no interest rate environment, right? Wrong. This is a terrible deal in CRE. You want at least 10%, paid current (not accrued) plus a declining waterfall share of cash flow and eventual gain on sale.

  2. Hungry, experienced sponsor with their own money in the deal.

  3. Be mindful of fees. Asset acquisition fees, management fees, construction management fees, the list is endless. If you don’t pay attention these can kill your returns.

  4. Supply constrained sub market. You want to be in deals where it’s very hard to build additional competitive supply.

If you have a specific deal, happy to discuss.

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head exploding

DON’T SELL PUTS ON STOCKS YOU THINK ARE OVERVALUED - YOU’RE EFFECTIVELY TAKING A LONG POSITION ON THAT STOCK.

Holy cow, I feel like I’ve time warped back to 2003. At the time, the Motley Fool was publishing articles about “getting paid while you wait” by selling puts on overvalued stocks. I got so angry that I went on a long posting rampage here:
https://boards.fool.com/getting-paid-while-you-wait-19114310.aspx?sort=whole#19114310

and ended up getting paid $100 by Motley Fool for writing them as some kind of award.

I understand that options transactions like this can look like win-win propositions: if the stock goes up, great I keep the money. If the stock goes down, great I get to buy a stock I like at an attractive price. But win-win situations do not exist in securities markets. In reality, you are writing insurance on an event that you think is likelier to happen than the average market participant - you are virtually guaranteed to receive a premium that doesn’t cover your risk.

(This isn’t directed at you personally, but I’ve discovered that I have two weak spots - I can go batshit crazy when I hear people talking about certain options strategies or about Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway. I even tell my students each year that if they’re ever bored in class, they should just ask a question about Berkshire and I’m likely to go on a tangent for the rest of class.)

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Were you on the fool boards in the late 90s? Those were good times. I was suzzer but I didn’t post much (crazy I know). My buddy Rimpinths was one of the primary bears that annoyed the crap out of the starry-eyed dotcommers. Then he actually went to work for TMF in DC for a while.

I remember some other smart posters - mmmmmBeer was awesome. Well maybe that’s the only one I remember. Oh yeah RJMason.

Lol I’m still active: https://boards.fool.com/profile/suzzer/info.aspx

Ticker 2/27/01 Shares Spent
AAPL $19.38 100 $1,938
ADBE $30.50 100 $3,050
AMD $21.98 100 $2,198
BRKS $37.13 100 $3,713
CMOS $23.44 100 $2,344
COMS $9.00 100 $900
ELON $17.63 100 $1,763
ESIO $29.88 100 $2,988
HOTT $26.81 100 $2,681
ITWO $27.56 100 $2,756
KEM $17.30 100 $1,730
LSI $18.22 100 $1,822
LTXX $14.63 100 $1,463
MSFT $59.38 100 $5,938
NOK $21.90 100 $2,190
PALM $19.81 100 $1,981
PHG $32.31 100 $3,231
T $22.91 100 $2,291
TQNT $20.44 100 $2,044
VSH $18.77 100 $1,877
Roubles $0.0348 31,712 $1,102
Total $50,000

I have no idea what this thread on TMF was about. But I predicted this portfolio (definitely not mine) will be lower after 2 years from 2/27/01. I was probably wrong and apparently seriously stupid back then. I’d be really curious what this is worth now.

Yes, I was FatOtt (my original name at 2plus2), xFatOtt, and BigPimpyGuy.

RJMason was great - he wrote a fantastic explanation of Tobin’s Q and how it applied to Amazon: https://boards.fool.com/nilecom-or-beating-amazon-at-half-the-price-10476505.aspx?sort=recommendations

He also wrote the GOAT review of Signs: https://boards.fool.com/signs-is-crap-17675643.aspx?sort=recommendations

But my two favorites are howardroark and albaby1. howardroark is probably the smartest person I’ve read in terms of analyzing and valuing stocks. albaby1 has, imo, some of the smartest political takes around. Both of them are unfailingly polite, as well. I met up with a bunch of them at one of the early 2000s Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings. I actually dragged my then-girlfriend to Omaha with me for the 2000 annual meeting, and we scrambled around Omaha the night before the meeting trying to spot Buffett.

Great success:

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Is Warren Buffet a giant or is spidercrab a manlet?

While we’re on the subject, how much BRK is too much BRK to own in a well balanced portfolio? As diverse as its holdings are, it’s still one company. On the other hand, I love how tax efficient it is.

Also, I figure there have to be other companies that are following the BRK blueprint or at least attempting to. Can you think of any such companies? Of the ones you can think of, are any of them worth looking at.