Imagine somehow correctly predicting COVID and dumping everything at the beginning of the year. You still missed a market return of 15%. Some of the best years in the markets have followed other great years. It’s all noise, you can’t predict the market.
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You sure about this? My binance account still works. The app wouldn’t work from a US IP but I’m able to trade in-browser, both on phone and PC.
I had some shitcoin scraps left in binance that I just tossed into a leveraged XRP product that binance is now offering (“XRPUP”). This should be interesting.
It’s simultaneously both. People are idiots and valuations of things will likely never be based in reality again. Bitcoin has value for the same reason that Tesla is worth more than the 7 largest automakers in the world combined. For the same reason Air BNB is worth more than Marriott and Hilton combined. For the same reason you could bet on Biden to win an election he already won for over a month after the election happened.
These things are worth that much purely based on there being enough people stupid enough to believe they’re worth that much, and we’re not looking to have a short supply of stupid people anytime soon.
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If you want exposure to bitcoin without buying Bitcoin you can buy GBTC. The pricing is at a premium because each share is supposed to be equivalent to.00095346 bitcoins and it’s currently trading at $28, but the price tends to move up and down with the price of Bitcoin.
one of my colleagues did this - he transitioned a ton to cash in February based on his prediction that COVID was going to be real bad. Was quite happy about in in March, but thought things would get even worse, and was staying in cash. Haven’t talked to him about it since we when WFH around that time.
My 2fa won’t work anymore and to disable it they make you provide some personal info. USA isn’t even an option off the dropdown for country. I think you can still trade/withdraw from the US because they just don’t care but good luck if something happens. Kucoin on the other hand I got an email this AM disabling my 2fa by request so I guess I can still trade there.
Hm weird, I also had the 2FA issue but was able to reset mine just a few days ago. I had to prove my identity, though–I don’t blame you if you don’t want to do that.
I agree, I think the only utility in worrying about whether the market will crash is to continually assess and reassess whether you can withstand a, say, 20% market drop. The fact is that could happen at any time not just when there is a general sense of unease. The right time to exit equity markets isn’t when you think it will go down, its when you think you can’t accept the risk that it might go down.
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This is a very classic problem with market timing, even if you bail just in time (which is a huge if) you still need to get the timing just right AGAIN to reenter. Its a fools errand.
The S&P is up 19% since I called bubble and bailed. QQQ is up 27%. I think it was in July. That do it for ya?
Make it all automatic so you don’t even have to look once a year.
Is that possible with a self directed account? How will it auto rebalance?
Do you have the option to invest in a Target Retirement Date fund? They rebalance automatically.
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Depends on where your money is. You can’t do it with Vanguard, but my Empower 401k can rebalance automatically quarterly or yearly. But in Vanguard you could buy a target retirement fund or a lifestrategy fund that effectively constantly rebalances.
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Were you able to do it through the website or support? The website on mine made me list my country which wasn’t available as a choice.
This is what all of my retirement money is in, Vanguard Retirement Date. I have it setup to also automatically reinvest all dividends back into it.
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My sister put everything into bonds for some reason last December and went back to her regular allocation in March. Fuckin stonk market genius.
I got shellacked betting against strip clubs in Houston two or three weeks before cases spiked there and everything shut down.
Motherfucking strip clubs.
Apparently the tits at Rick’s Cabaret are to die for.
I crushed it and deposited like 3.5x the value of my portfolio in early March, took everything to cash, and piled it in incrementally on the way down. Then in July I was like WTF this is ridiculous this recovery is bonkers, this has to unwind and be really bad.
And here we are… I’ll probably pile back in soon, and we’ll probably plummet from there back to like 5% above when I called bubble. I still think everything is ridiculously overvalued, so I might increase international exposure or something.
I’m extra salty because my MRNA options were making up for what I missed out on, and they’re on their way from a 10x return to 0 because getting the vaccine approved seems VERY VERY BAD for Moderna.
MRNA -23% from it’s peak now.
status report: up >28%
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I hear you but I’m sticking with my plan as well: 60:30:10 now until retirement. We inherited a decent chunk this summer/fall and it was tough to stick it in the market, but we did it with our now more conservative allocation.
(I was 80:20 forever and only ever screwed around last February when I moved to 50:50 due to Covid. I bought back into the falling market in March and April, so it worked out, but the market recovering so fast was just another lesson that it’s really hard to predict what will happen ahead of time.)
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