I am probably buying in with like 20% of my cash at around S&P 2600 and then waiting until 2200, which would put us below Trump’s election night. If we get to 1700 which is almost 50% decline I will be 100% equities. There is no expertise or great logic behind those points though. No one knows the impact of the virus on corporate earnings, either this year or long term, so it is impossible to give a meaningful valuation based on the most common methods.
God there was a whole rogue’s gallery of suckers buying silver coins. It was a textbook market bubble that we got to watch in real time.
Wal Mart stock is up today because of course it is.
One thing that helps me psychologically is thinking of stocks not as speculative pieces of paper but as true ownership in the largest most profitable companies on the face of the earth. Indirectly, I’m paying tens of millions of people to work on my behalf, and they keep doing that no matter what other people happen to be willing to pay for that right this second.
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If you can’t sleep, cash out. Or put it all in the stocks that will be here in 10 years or we are all fucked. P&G. Coke. Walmart. Buy a business, not the market. Collect dividend. Sleep at night.
Personally sold Boyd Gaming I’ve been holding forever. Kinda forgot I had it. Should have been thinking ahead. Partially for obvious reasons, partially for cash, partially for ammunition going forward.
Riverman and I are thinking alike.
I need to re-evaluate.
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And if we have a 20% loss today, a 20% loss tomorrow, and a 20% loss the next day we’ll be down around March 2009 levels. Bad!
Riverman saying 10 years are yielding 1.2%, yields are gone, no room for them to move further then yields cratering to 0.4% is the most Riverman thing that has ever happened.
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Frankly, I’ve felt the market was due for a correction for a long time, and atm it seems like the natural correction + oil + CV are all feeding into together to make for pretty substantial correction. However, assuming there’s a 1% fatality rate from CV and that others have immunity for at least, say, 9 months, while that is very, very bad, it’s not exactly cataclysmic. Supply chains and travel and many other things will be significantly impacted, including oil and steel and such, obv, but there will likely be a “new normal” within a year or so, when many are no longer susceptible to CV, and probably normal, normal within 2-3 years (barring major conflicts and such).
Basically, what I’m saying is that Trump is right. J/k, I’m not saying that. I am saying that there is a limit to the negative effects and I would be shocked if the DOW went under like 20k. It’s gonna be bad for a while, but it’s not end of the world bad.
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If millions end up being infected here in the US then the Dow goes below 15k. Maybe well below.
Well, maybe I’m just in a good mood because I got a new Chinese litigation cleint yesterday (case is unrelated to effects of CV).
It really all depends on the stats and mortality rate. If it’s really only bad for 60 or 70 y/o plus or those with significant other underlying conditions, like a really bad flu (but not 1918 flu bad), I can’t imagine that significantly tanks business long term. Those individuals are not the major producers and consumers in the economy, and many are hoarding significant wealth in terms of property appreciation and such, which will be transferred to more productive uses.
What I’m saying is that there are likely boundaries on the impact, and once we understand those boundaries the broader impact should be more knowable (and those who know first and make the appropriate bets will profit significantly).
I’m doing a cash out refi at 2.375%. The appraiser shows up at 4 today. My mortgage guy thankfully didn’t lock me at 2.875% back when we started the process weeks ago. His crystal ball says this is the rate floor, but that was last week so who knows.
I will absolutely be using a majority of the proceeds to snatch up equities off the clearance rack. Children are expensive and I’m way behind on retirement.
A virus with a 1% mortality rate that mostly kills off old people shouldn’t be spooking the markets like this. More people get murdered in Chicago every year than will die in the USA from COVID-19.
Edvest changed their website so I can’t see what kind of havoc this has done to the kids’ college funds right now, but I have a son graduating high school in 3 months. His sister is only 4 years behind. Hopefully their age-based risk profiles have mitigated the damage somewhat, but I had them all set to “aggressive.” Oops.
Thanks, Trump.
Chiming in to say I couldn’t possibly be more fulfilled or more confident in my personal finance choices leading up to this moment.
Bounced around in shit jobs all my adult life until I got my act together, went back to school, and now I’m 1.5 years into this gig as a RN.
Major plusses off the top: 1) recession-proof industry, 2) always have a job, anywhere I’d ever want to live, 3) 85%+ female-dominated industry
I’ve saved 10% of every dollar I made in this gig for my retirement account to max out the match. Since I haven’t been at it that long, it’s not THAT much money. And I won’t even need it for 20+ years, so it’ll eventually come back and I’ll be fine.
Currently 100 / 0, happily picking up extra shifts for incentive pay, buying the dip ALL THE WAY DOWN, baby!
Just got off working a night shift, presently enjoying a beverage and watching it all burn
…Hopefully I wont catch it from a patient and die
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The major economic effect won’t be the tens of thousands that die, it will be the draconian quarantine measures that will be taken to keep the number of infected from rising from millions to tens of millions.That will devastate supply chains and retail businesses.
I’m basically assuming that quarantine will not be effective and the virus will run its course. If there’s widespread exposure and asymptomatic transmission, don’t expect quarantine will work. Also, there will likely be a vaccine within like a year.
In that case are we not looking at 100 million infected as a floor?
whether or not it will be effective, if hundreds of thousands are infected in the US there will be widespread quarantine measures, both official and self-imposed.
Ya, I think I’ve seen 90m estimate for the US. If 1% mortality that’s like 1m. That’s a lot, but not like double normal annual mortality (and less will die of other things because CV will get them 6 months sooner).
If you think that ninety million cases is likely, that there will be a 1% mortality rate and the Dow won’t dip below 20k then I don’t know what to tell you, my man. That isn’t how the markets will react to that scenario.
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I mean there’s the theoretical argument over whether timing the market is possible and I’m saying usually no but on this it was. I moved to 50-50 from 100% stocks in my Roth the other day, and I’ve been saving up dry powder for this. Plan on putting ~every dollar I earn over my expenses each month into the markets for the foreseeable future as well.
As for actions now I think it’s likely to drop more and my beginning of re-entry point is a little lower than this AM’s circuit breaker, then putting more and more in as it drops more. Fully expect to be losing on the early chunks for the short term and to profit on all of it in the long term obviously, and not dumb enough to try to time the perfect bottom. Hopefully I get a reasonable amount of my dry powder in reasonably close to the bottom and don’t woefully miss one way or the other. That’ll be variance, just sticking to a plan.
These are the types of numbers regarding infections and deaths that I’ve said we’ve all known here for a few days to a week. Lowest end I see at all possible is 35M infected, 200K dead but that’s with major prevention efforts and insane rungood. Most likely is in the 90-100M infected range and 500K to 2M dead. With risk for a worse death toll due to medical facility overload. Worst number of infected in projection ranges from the WHO is in the 225M range.
The lower the death toll the more lockdowns, quarantines, cancellations, work from home, etc which all slows the economy down. The less of that stuff the more infections and deaths.
We’ve got a Cat 5 hurricane bearing down on us and we’re dead center in the cone of probability. Hopefully it turns and we get a glancing blow, but Wall Street has been buying deck furniture to put outside cause it was 10% off and still sunny a few days ago.
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