Investing (aka GameStonk and other gambling events)

Actually I think I only bought a 1/10th of a coin. I lost about $200 on the deal.

Goldman’s 2021 target for SP500 is 4300 lel. So projecting another 16% next year.

How good were their predictions for, say, each of the last 20 years?

todays headlines: Stocks go up on the prediction that the stocks will go up.

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https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1339292564265046022

Especially with institutions pumping it now. Retail is probably going to to get obliterated.

That said I’d rather have 2% in BTC than gold personally so while I’m not a permabull I’ll ride the wave a bit.

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The scale on this chart is giving me fits.

Evergreen!

A couple of big misses, but overall past 10 years have outperformed the Goldman target (from November of the previous year) by average of 5%:

goldman

I’m as shocked as you are. Even Goldman’s optimism can’t keep up with STONKS.

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I think calling that a 5% annual miss is too charitable. If you don’t net off their positive and negative one year outlooks you get something more like an 11% average miss vs. the benchmark. Also of note is that if they had just assumed the index would grow with inflation of 2% each year (i.e. no real prediction at all) then their average annual miss would have been … 12.5% instead of 11%. Huh.

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No real prediction would be inflation plus 5%.

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Sure, that’s fine too. In which case their average annual miss would have been … a little smaller than their actual miss. Lol. That chart is an advertisement for index investing.

They are just throwing darts like everybody else in the financial industry.

Not true! They’re throwing darts while wearing $5,000 suits!

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Let’s check in on lasts weeks hot IPOs

Bad STONK

Should have bought the dip!

A stonk of a cryptocurrency exchange. Convince me why I shouldn’t go all in on this immediately

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-files-for-ipo

Door Dash market cap: $50 billion

Ford Motor Company: $35 billion

JLawOK.gif

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I feel like you’re the STONKS version of someone yelling “Get off my lawn!”

“Get out of my portfolio with your overvalued tech bro startup 12x Honda bullshit stonking, you brats!!!”

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Now Ripple needs to go public and pump my XRP.

I’m afraid whether it’s logical or not BTC is going to fly. Institutions and big companies are loading up bigly so this isn’t just retail FOMO anymore.

BTC will either be 100k or zero at this point. I’m betting on the former.

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I can’t invest in something I don’t believe in. It stresses me out too much. Just can’t do BTC.