This isn’t quite right - it’s just because I only calculated the returns for a limited part of the distribution. If you think extremely large negative outcomes are possible, rather than just moderate negative outcomes, then lower strike prices offer bigger returns. For example, if you think that -50% returns are a likely outcome in the Apple example, the $100 put results in a 367% return, the $110 put results in a 300% return, and the $120 put results in a 244% return.
It’s kind of like choosing a deductible for your car or home insurance. You pay less for higher deductibles, but that doesn’t make them necessarily good or bad choices. It all depends on the distribution of insured events you think will occur.
It’s insane that Tesla could offer to buy some of the other top automakers in a pure stock deal and they’d pretty much have no option but to take the offer if Tesla was aggressive enough.
Yeah, I did realize that. I just thought even -30% was was fairly unlikely so scenarios involving losses greater than that were so unlikely that they would not really affect the EV calculation. But that’s just an assumption.
How about my hypothetical question to suzzer? I’ve got I get $100K of Euro banknotes and stick it in a safe deposit box. At some point (several years later) I sell them for dollars and get back >$100K. Is that gain ordinary income?
OK, so let’s say he keeps the Euros in his safe deposit box for a few years and then Suzzer goes on his world tour. First, he spends his Euros in Europe. Is there anything taxable about this?
Now lets say he moves on to Asia and converts his Euros to other currencies but never back to USD. Still nothing taxable?
My actual plan once I sell my condo is to put a lot of that money into an account HSBC in Germany or Belgium something. I read up and it doesn’t seem that hard for an American to do. I’d love to have a chunk completely divorced from the US just in case shit gets super cray cray here.
I could see Trump 2.0 finding some excuse to raid everyone’s IRAs. Or maybe just people who bail on the US and live abroad or something.
I can’t imagine I’d have to pay taxes on that if the Euro increases against the $$, right?
Although I’d probably also want that in a trading account so I can keep most of it in Euro stonk funds or something.
Once you figure out how to do this, let me know. Opening a free checking type account in another country if you’re not a citizen or legal resident is not that easy. I haven’t looked into that many countries though.
At first glance, it seems like the kind of thing that would be super convenient for walking around money, but I don’t know how comfortable I’d be parking 100K on there.
Opening up a bank account for foreigners in Belgium is easy and straight forward. You can open an online account without setting foot in a bank or just go to any bank office and take a proof of identity - a passport or a Belgian ID is usually enough - and you will get a bank account in no time.