Hedges would be more important for smaller, less diversified companies. BP can weather six months or a year of low oil prices but a smaller company with just a few projects could be screwed.
I’m riding it out. 70/30, lets do this.
4 Likes
Ditto. I have a ten-year time horizon minimum, can go to 15 or maybe 20 if needed. If it’s still in the tank by then, we’ve got bigger problems to worry about.
2 Likes
Did that kind of shit even happen in 2008?
Ive got the majority of my net worth in a bond 60/40 stock fund that’s still up YTD. Lettin it ride.
Holy shit
-7% is a circuit breaker (trading halt), could be there at open
Treasuries never got that low but there were huge drops in yields that I think were comparable or larger.
Still 100% equities and feeling good about it.
1 Like
I’m going to be pissed if Dow hits 24k and I can’t get my buy order in.
At what price do you get nervous?
The 200 month average on the S&P 500 is ~1700.
I think it’s a coin flip that we get there. If we don’t it’s because of massive intervention by the fed or Congress. Though I’m not sure what that would look like. The events that are going to take place over the next 6-18 months will be profound in my humble opinion. It’s more then just a virus.
I’m shocked that Trump’s economic “boom” based on giving trillions to corporations and nothing isn’t working when we have an economic shock!
They’re going to propose a tax cut, book it.
And watch Democrats vote for a temporary payroll tax cut in exchange for boring but costly permanent shit like bonus depreciation.
What ever stimulus the pass I just hope that Donald J Trump will be explicitly excluded from gaining anything. Put his name on the fucking bill. Fuck him and his crooked ass family! I want every single one of them to go bankrupt.
Gonna say it again. Oil. Which is a huge part of the 2020 US economy is off over 30% from Friday. It was already depressed. This is a thing that matters way more than the Down Joans.
These posts seem crazy. This is not a dip buying situation and expecting the market to correct in 20 years doesn’t justify blindly standing by as the market crashes. We know what is causing this and it’s not irrational fear. Significant portions of first world countries are shutting down. And that’s a country that took the threat seriously from the start. We all understand it’s a statistical certainty that the US is headed for an even worse position with the numbers we already have and a perfect storm of hypercapitalist policy and incompetent leadership.
Imagine you are a casino dealing blackjack. You’ve always come out ahead in the long run, after all the game is designed so that the more you play, the more you win. All of a sudden advantage players flood your game and the neighboring casinos. The smart casinos recognize that this is a different situation that they’re used to, one that is statistically guaranteed to cost them money, so they ban the players. Some of you are like “Well I see that this player is likely to cost me money, but if I keep dealing blackjack the same way maybe the straight players will come back later and I’ll get back to winning.” Others are like “Well I see that this player is likely to cost me money, but if I only let them bet half their roll I can limit my risk.” Some are like “No, advantage play can’t be possible, this game is a winner for me.” These are all shitty strategies. Like I get that well concealed advantage play can be difficult to detect and you could argue that in those cases it makes more sense to always keep dealing instead of shutting your casino down. But this is not that subtle. These players are picking up cards from the shoe to see what’s coming next and are like “Oh that’s gonna give me 21, I’ll double down.” Like wtf man stop dealing that game.
Market timing simply does not work. Period. If you think you’re smarter than he world, start a thread and tell us all when to buy and sell. Better yet, start a hedge fund and become a billionaire.
1 Like
I’m not sure. 1700 would be a dip comparable to 2009. I’d like to say I would handle it with coolness and equanimity but who knows. Hopefully I’ll be smart enough to recognize that selling after a plunge like that would only lock in my losses.
1 Like
I think buying into the crash by progressively increasing my equity allocation is a decent strategy. My plan won’t get the lowest average cost per share, but it will lower my average cost/share versus standing pat at my roughly 50:50 allocation. Trying to guess the bottom is very difficult, so my plan entails willingly catching knives on the way there.
And I know no matter what happens I will not capitulate and sell when the market is way down. I went through 2000 and 2008 without breaking a sweat. Even when people were telling me to sell when the market was already down more than 20%, I never considered it.
I don’t know what’s going to happen. You don’t know what’s going to happen. The market has already priced in the news of the current situation, it’s too late to sell now. And I have no idea if the virus is going to get worse or better in the near term or long term. I suspect you don’t either. But if you’re confident that things are going to get much worse then you should sell all your stocks and buy 30 year treasuries. Good luck!
1 Like