Yeah, I think the thing is that printing money creates inflationary pressure, but an economic catastrophe creates deflationary pressure. So if you are smart or lucky, these forces offset if you print vast sums of money in a crisis. If you print vast sums of money outside of a crisis then the risk of inflation would be higher.
It’s more fun to be 100% long plus 100% short than it is to just hold cash.
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People are pulling out of the investments in their 401ks and putting that money into Robinhood, and that net-zero change in investments (ignoring the loss to tax penalties) is pushing the market up? C’mon
There are no early withdrawal penalties,no one has realized their tax liabilities and most people’s 401k was not in 100% stocks. So ya that is happening. I personally know several people doing it.
I’m too dumb to understand how stonks work; I’m just going to on to hold on to my big pile of index funds like I always do and ride the lighting.
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I mean do you think it is a coincidence meme stocks are up like 500% in the last 4 months? Probably just totally random.
Too many times in my life the market has completely surprised me. That’s why I never go all in or all out but instead move my AA in a range from a floor of about 50% equities to a ceiling of about 80% (and 90% when I was younger). I recently decreased my equities because I couldn’t imagine the market moving much higher, but here we are getting surprised every day.
If I owned a meme stock years before it became a meme stock, am I in the clear from judgement?
The whole point of meme stocks is to look cool, so I JUDGE YOU for donking into one.
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No judgment here. Making money is making money I’m just seeing a lot of people discount the retail/Robinhood moron class be the main driver for the mania in the stock market lately and I just don’t see it. Stocks with no product are having 11 digit market caps. It’s idiotic but it won’t end until the idiot class runs out of money.
Ive said it 10 times now but it’s shitcoins 2.0.
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I think it’s got more to do with stimulus checks and reduced spending on in-person entertainment.
Of course that is a huge part of it. When those factors go back to normal or close what happens next?
Who the fuck knows anymore? The market should correct, but it’s silly season out there.
if the stock market is a graph of rich people’s feelings, why wouldn’t it keep going up? They benefit the larger the class disparity becomes. This is the nature of STONKS
Go to wallstreetbets on reddit. That is the easiest way to understand what is happening.
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silver almost 29 an ounce! this is double april. Also it was 18 a month ago.
I SEE YOUR STONKS AND LAUGH BECAUSE SHINY METAL SHINYYYYYYY.
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For me a general rule is if your casual moron friends are buying sell, if they are selling buy ignore everything else. Psychology is what wins the most and being on the opposite side of it FOMO/Panic/etc
Eventually it corrects but who knows when that is, can take a long long time and timing, if they really do fire those big $ checks floated around, then timing now isn’t smart.
I don’t think there’s any way to prove either position, but I’m super skeptical that individual Robinhood/wsb type investors are leading to major increases in aggregate market levels, particularly the argument that people are pulling out (uninvested?) money of their 401ks to leverage up on options. Individual stocks? Sure, I can absolutely believe that individual morons are driving up the prices of dumbass unprofitable companies. (You are right that 401k withdrawals are probably more common now because of the temporary CARES Act. I forgot about that.)
I think an important thing to remember is that money doesn’t have to flow in or out in order for prices to go up and down, which is why you don’t even need the argument about money flowing from one place (401ks) to another (Robinhood). Like, the government could announce that Amazon is to be immediately shut down and liquidated. The stock would immediately go down by 90%, but that decline wouldn’t generate any kind of funds that would then be forced into other assets. The paper wealth based on quoted prices would just evaporate. Same thing is true for prices going up.
Even if you’re right (I don’t think you are, interest rate adjusted multiples are well within historical norms), you can’t time the exit and more importantly you can’t time the re-entry. Save yourself the stress, buy a life strategy fund and forget about the money for a few decades.
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