I get the instinct to be skeptical of the rally in the face of all the political incompetence and human suffering, but I think you guys are too pessimistic.
We aren’t really “printing our way out of this.” The Federal Reserve has basically said it will step in to provide liquidity, which has prompted private parties to provide that liquidity. Investors are happy to buy Fannie/Freddie MBS. Creditworthy companies are able to borrow. Nobody is using the Main Street Lending program. I honestly don’t see any real causal connection between Fed policy and a rising stock market. If indeed there were too much money printing occurring you would see inflation, but we’re more likely to experience deflation instead.
Separately, the terrible headlines and terrible president and terrible policy surrounding the virus are indeed terrible for the country but not necessarily terrible for the market. Here are the largest companies by market cap:
Apple
Microsoft
Amazon
Google
Facebook
Berkshire Hathaway
All of whom are fine. And the firms likely to go bankrupt through this mess are likely smaller private firms that will be swallowed up by and provide market share to larger publicly traded competitors. Throw in historic low rates, making each dollar of future earnings more valuable, and it mostly makes sense.
I’m not talking about short term. I’m taking about the view that the US stock market and economy is basically a multi-generational ponzi scheme that will come crashing down some day when we aren’t the world’s reserve currency. See Argentina, Greece, Zimbabwe, any country that massively over-extends themselves but doesn’t have the option of just printing more money. Our debt to GDP is approaching the WWII peak right now. United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP - 2023 Data - 2024 Forecast
So much gold in here. Inject this article straight into my veins.
People have wondered why Katzenberg and Whitman, in their late and early 60s, respectively, and not very active on social media, would believe they have uniquely penetrating insight into the unacknowledged desires of young people. When I ask Whitman what TV shows she watches, she responds, “I’m not sure I’d classify myself as an entertainment enthusiast.” But any particular shows she likes? “ Grant, ” she offered. “On the History Channel. It’s about President Grant.”
Katzenberg is on his phone all the time, but he is also among the moguls of his generation who have their emails printed out (and vertically folded, for some reason) by an assistant. In enthusing about what a show could mean for Quibi, Katzenberg would repeatedly invoke the same handful of musty touchstones — America’s Funniest Home Videos, Siskel and Ebert, and Jane Fonda’s exercise tapes. When Gal Gadot came to the offices and delivered an impassioned speech about wanting to elevate the voices of girls and women, Katzenberg wondered aloud whether she might become the new Jane Fonda and do a workout series for Quibi. (“Apparently, her face fell,” says a person briefed on the meeting.)
The crazy thing is I looked into buying some longer dated TSLA puts and even for far out of the money puts they are over $10,000 to buy one put contract. So there isn’t even a reasonable way to bet against it right now if you wanted to.
A September 18th $1,200 put costs you $11,913 currently.
Aside from a potential bubble, is it possible that stock prices are so unhinged from seemingly-rational valuations because we’re underestimating the value of data as a corporate product? Yea there are less people working and buying right now, but data-harvesting continues unabated (and perhaps accelerated), meaning that companies can further expand their power and influence largely regardless of real-world changes.
Yeah trying to re-sell me that same tent I just bought across 12 different websites - $TRILLION market.
For the last decade+, every boss and flim-flammy self-promoting architect I’ve had has put BIG DATA all over their powerpoints. My current boss thinks a giant data lake is going to somehow help us squeeze more money out of donors (combined with AI/ML of course).
I’m sure data can be useful, but in every case I’ve worked on the value amounted to precisely nothing.
Cool strawmen. Data isn’t just about manipulating you into buying dumb shit. Off the top of my head…
Data collection is partly responsible for Trump’s election in 2016, and almost certainly for Johnson/Bolsonaro as well. What dollar value would you attribute to this?
Data collection means progress toward autonomous driving.
Data collection helps to refine manufacturing AI, which means progress toward ever-cheaper production.
Data helps to refine computing AI and software, again leading to ever-more profitable business endeavors.
Data helps to predict behavior, health, and events in ways that massive increase the earning potential of businesses ranging from health insurance to farming equipment.
Data collection absolutely does influence morons to buy things. And it will be better at doing so a year from now.
