Thanks. Yeah this is accurate. Seems like I should just see if I can create an auto deposit instead doing it manually and sporadically throughout the year.
Oh they are a real thing and they can definitely move individual stocks, but the reason why the market hasn’t cratered is that the fed is buying corporate bonds including clo’s. In the grand scheme of things they are just noise.
Im back in October puts and that graph makes me happy. Fading the public works in sports betting, why not STONKS.
Screw STONKS I’m on to SPACs. The WSB crowd is now pumping companies that haven’t even officially been taken public.
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Sports betting doesn’t have the fed injecting imaginary amounts of money into the economy?
It’s getting real close for me to where there doesn’t feel like much more potential upside and a whole lotta potential downside.
No doubt. I’m old enough to remember the dot com bubble. Stonks that have completely diverged from their underlying value + heavy public money didn’t go well that time. Let’s see how it plays out this time.
So how does one bet against CLOs?
There are some funds that invest in CLOs, you might be able to directly short those funds.
And then when you win your bet turns out we’re all in the breadline anyways.
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And then kick your dog when the fed makes them 100% whole.
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There are good arguments that the entire stonk market has massively diverged from underlying value even before covid.
If these get into trouble I’ll bet that the Fed will start buying the underlying bonds. They’ll be more than happy to bail out corporate debt while they wouldn’t go near bailing out mortgages.
Ya i tend to subscribe to that train of thought. If it was a bubble before what does that make it now.
Gee I wonder if the companies taking on all the risky debt might also be aware of this potential backstop? Hmmmm
This is pretty out on the open now. Our calls with institutional investors and other asset managers basically admit that value is not relevant, for an investor with a large pool of capital it’s all about A vs. B vs. C. You don’t buy A because its intrinsically under priced, you buy A because its relative position vs B and C is “attractive”.
That’s a red flag.
During the dotcom bubble, my friend (who bet the farm on AOL and Dell lol) sent me a long gobbledygook essay about how profits and earnings aren’t relevant valuations anymore. In the new inter-connected world, money is just one form of currency. Human power will become a currency. Maybe we can all IPO ourselves someday. A bunch of other completely insane nonsense. I wish I had saved it. It was nuts.
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Yeah, there’s honestly a lot of bullshit in the discussions and we’re a reputable firm. The best argument that is out there supporting a bounceback in stock markets is that there is still a lot of cash on the sidelines that still hasn’t been buying. The irrational propping up of prices might have a long tail.
People will believe anything that suggests they can be rich without working.
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But is that cash going to buy back in if the market just keeps drifting upward from here? I could see some casual investors hoping for DOW 17k throwing in the towel. But guys like Buffet will just stay cash forever right?
I guess maybe there’s a scenario where the market flatlines and covid goes away, then Buffet jumps back in.