If oral Pepcid reduces fatality by 50% why would they be injecting 9x as much into people? Does it build up that much in your system that you need to be taking it orally for months to get the same effect as a massive injection? I guess that’s possible.
Maybe suppository form is a nice middle ground. Always worth a try!
I was heavy in AAPL because it crashed pretty hard in January of last year when the tariffs were a big thing. I got in at $142 iirc. Damn near got out at the peak, too. I was dumping it at $330 if it got there and moving to QQQ for diversification while keeping tech exposure, it got to $327 then crashed to $270. When we got that dead cat bounce through most of the market, I took advantage.
If I bought it a couple dollars off its low then sold it at it’s all time high, it might have been bad for me in the long run (too overconfident in my oracle-like instincts)… But I’d feel like a damn genius still.
It was a simple play though: look at the companies whacked the hardest by the tariffs, look at the ones I was 99.9% sure would still be around in 10-20 years, pick one and be the “fool” buying the stock of the company that had negative short term outlooks.
We are deviating form person finance here and might get better answers in the other thread, I am not an expert in these matters.
My understanding is that the active ingredient does something to impair the virus from replicating. So if it is used earlier when symptoms don’t yet exist or are mild a normal dose might be effective but once a person is in the ICU they would need a lot due to the amount of virus they already have.
Agree with BRK.B being a good option right now. My reasoning behind indexes was not trying to outsmart myself, despite my last post being a brag about how smart I was. I try to know my limitations. If I go out there and try to pick stocks with 95% of my portfolio instead of 5% I might fuck around and make an overall 5% ROI instead of 25%. If I pick indexes, I almost certainly get most of the upside.
We don’t know if it has to build up, because to be clear we don’t know anything else other than a correlation existed in a data set. No sample of injected Pepsid, because it’s usually not a thing. But it wasn’t being administered as a treatment, either, in that first data set. It was just surveying what they knew people had been on and noticing that people on Pepcid ended up faring better.
Did it protect them from catching it most severely because it was already in their system? Did it serve as a treatment? We don’t know. It’s even possible it only kept it from attacking certain organs, or that it did nothing at all and was noise in the data.
I am still not feeling bad about having moved back to 50% cash when the market first go to S&P 2800. Agree that so much risk on the downside relative to potential gains on the upside.
We can say that current knowledge is priced in but I just can’t imagine any scenario where we come out of this into an economic boom. Like absolute the best upside scenario I can think of is 2021 corporate earnings are about equal to 2019 and then we have slow growth from there.
Agree that trying to buy options is not smart unless you have a legitimate hedging interest or are doing it for the thrill of the gambool, which makes it about as smart as DFS or sports betting or anything else with no edge and a high vig.
My two triggers to get back out again are if the market gets back to its Feb highs while we’re still in the middle of this thing, or when the open-ups start to go bad around the country. The latter I think will trigger a massive sell-off at the first sign of trouble - as people won’t get caught off-guard this time, and everyone will be thinking the same thing.
If we are going to continue to print money to prop up the markets, think of it this way: the government’s policy response will have been to shift wealth from taxpayers to shareholders. If you stay in cash you only get to participate in the taxpayer side of the equation. So we can reach new all-time highs without reaching new all-time value in terms of buying power.
If DJIA 29.5K at ATH was worth 29.5 widgets and DJIA 23K was worth 23 widgets, but DJIA 32K will only be worth 27 widgets, you’re better off having being invested than not. The risk is that your cash loses buying power.
Getting back to -15% from ATH was one of my triggers, til I realized -15% in current nominal value is not necessarily the same as -15% in actual value factoring in all the printing and stimulus.
Regarding the lockdowns going poorly I agree, but how do you quantify it if, for example, Kemp isn’t letting much testing be done? For the stock market it doesn’t matter how many people die, it matters what people’s perception is of how many die. It’s sick and it’s sad, but it’s the reality we are in.
I understand the inflationary aspects of the stimulus and fed actions to asset prices, the expectation of future fed actions on top of what has already been done is likely why market is at the level it is currently at. There are still incredibly strong deflationary forces working in the other direction. People just sitting at home has impact on the velocity of money that we haven’t ever seen before which is just s important to the infaltion as the supply of money. To me the threat of additional monetary actions is still a better reason to own a little gold or other hedge than equitites. I also think we will see a return to partisan gridlock that slows or prevents additional stimulus.
Same way I quantified it last time - watch the numbers very closely, wait for the mayors to sound the alarm about hospitals (knowing they will be doing so early and with worst-case #s, as they should), use our ace in the hole will for Washington state. Chiefsplanet is a pretty good temperature check for Kansas City. The media will be all over it if hospitals start getting full again.
You can only fudge stuff like not testing for so long before it comes crashing down - as we saw the first time around - and Russia is seeing now.
It’s going to be pretty depressing for people if it becomes obvious we need to hunker down for a big chunk of the winter and there’s no way around it. I’m not sure that will happen but it seems likely. Things will get ugly imo and market sentiment will follow suit.
It’s going to be really interesting though with masks, new distancing habits, lots of work from home, no big sporting events, bars, etc. + summer. It could take a while to come roaring back and of course every case/death over the summer is a little closer to herd immunity - which I think is the unstated goal.
Remember when everyone was buying guns because societal breakdown was just around the corner? Heh. I was wishing I had one but not quite enough to go risk covid waiting in line at the gun store.
Jfc SPY back to 290
Let’s see the news headlines this morning on CNBC are another oil crash, some GOP critter wants a congressional investigation into Amazon and Google ad revenue taking a hit from Covid. That seems good for a 3% pump today lol.
Both the House and Senate will physically be back in session next week. One two punch of money machine go brrrr and a signal that America is OPENING FOR BUSINESS. Frankly don’t see America closing again no matter what.
Think I’m going to throw in the towel soon.
Came home on a Thursday in tears with a bruise on her neck and never went back.
It had been a couple years in the making. From statewide Teacher of the Year awards to a broken soul in less than 6 years. Urban public schools don’t fuck around. Her last school had 5 different principals in as many years and was featured on a few local news stories for the levels of violence within the walls. She’s happier now than I’ve ever seen her during her 15 years of inner city teaching, even at the charter ones.
Moving from private charter schools to MPS was a terrible and ultimately very expensive decision. The cost of that sweet pension and healthcare plan was very, very high.
This is amazing.
Thanks yeah I saw that. I guess that’s why DGX was up 9% yesterday but then today the rational market realized they needed to drop 3.5% today.
Is it just me that think all this stock speculation and following the ebbs/flows of the daily market content is not really “Personal Finance”? Sure, your money is involved but it almost seems like it’d be better off in a dedicated stonks or WSB thread where as this one could be more focused on more general personal finance topics. Does anyone else think that is reasonable?