Investing (aka GameStonk and other gambling events)

Uber warned that its net losses would widen by $1.9 billion to $2.2 billion due to investment impairments. Uber stock rose 4.2% in the extended session

STONKS

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Futures up 3%+

Must be infrastructure week

They’ve cured covid haven’t you heard? So Wall Street thinks ‘let everyone back to work and at least once hospitals are historically overloaded they can treat everyone seamlessly’.

Seems pretty obvious “they” pick literally any random bit of good news regardless of how flimsy and plug their ears to the world all around them.

Rising after that abomination of a press conference is amazing.

It’s still true you can’t time the market, but that’s because it has no tether to reality.

Reminds me a lot of Bitcoin circa late 2017.

Tomorrow may be the day I pull out completely. I’m tempted to try to ride it higher because I could see it going up for 1-2 weeks past when states start opening, but at some point the finance bros are going to look around and be like, “Hey man, should we really be 5% off ATH? Hey man, should we really be testing the ATH? Hey, holy fuck, how is the DOW now worth MORE than it was BEFORE coronavirus???”

Doubt it

I’d be very interested to hear what he views as the likely timeline…

I’m more convinced than ever that buy and hold is right. Good fucking luck trying to time this thing.

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I have the luxury of not having all that much invested so the gains or losses I miss or time are kinda whatever, but after hearing about quant this and algorithm that and exotic swaps I had kind of ignored the fact that all that was handwaving and it was just boringly rigged.

So yeah, kinda like bitcoin.

Someone whose opinion I highly respect said this was going to be like the collapse of oil prices in 2016 or whenever to $40-50 a barrel for a bunch of industries. Everyone is going to be tripping over each other trying to beat each other to the rebound but like how the fundamental facts had changed such oil was never getting back to $100/barrel, the fundamental facts have just permanently changed for several industries and they’ll never recover. But like w/ oil, it will take several years for people to stop chasing that ghost.

Was especially pessimistic on commercial real estate, like Riverman has been saying.

I’ve been saying that, too. I think a lot of WFH will be the enduring “new normal” after this.

Well I waited 24 hours, entered everything on the IRS website exactly as my accountant says he’s been filing, and still get that useless error message. If I actually needed the money I would be furious. I can’t imagine the frustration some people are dealing with right now.

I still get it too. What a joke.

Beating a dead horse here, but yeah. When you use buy and hold, you know you will have to weather shit like this. Thats why snarky comments about how buy and hold sucks in a downturn don’t really mean anything. It’s supposed to suck in a downturn!

Cases can’t ramp up. Testing capacity is maxed out. Literally everybody could have it and it’ll look like positive tests are flat not growing. It’ll take some other signal fore the other shoe to drop.

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Same.

Testing capacity is not maxed out at all now in most places and if it is it’s because they’re all being used for sick people. I’m talking about in a month or more when presumably the flow of sick people to the hospital has been reduced to a trickle.

But yes, massive testing would be great. As is we’ll have to live with people showing up sick and getting tested. Blue states will in general do better at this than red states.

Oil is $17!!!

And Exxon up 8%. Stonks. Street must have been expecting $15/bbl.