The other thing that isn’t being priced in (in my worthless opinion) is the economy today even OPEN FOR BUSINESS isn’t what it was 6 months ago. You don’t just spike up to 20% unemployment and -40% GDP growth and go back to normal immediately. Even if there are no more shutdowns there will be widespread damage that will take time to resolve. Likely some of the jobs are permanently lost as are some of the businesses that they came from.
The market before today was basically priced as if that wasn’t the case. Yes i realize there was massive stimulus and interest rates are low. That was true in 2001 and 2008 also(maybe not to this extent) and it took years and years to dig out of those holes.
That being said I am terrible at STONKS so my opinion is probably worth less than nothing.
Somehow I was smart enough to figure it out and dumb enough to still do 3% intervals instead of .5% or 1%.
Just like I was smart enough to plan for the crash to buy the dip, but not smart enough to buy a short ETF, buy puts on travel stocks, or buy ZM or CTXS before they started going up. I still am up ~100% on ZM but it could be like 150%… Or even more if I thought to buy calls.
One thing this time is I don’t think there’s much more to bet on to go up, I mean, ZM is up 223% YTD, with continued work from home priced in. Kroger is near its peak from the first runup it had when everything else crashed.
I guess it’s all gotta be puts and short ETFs? (Or just being defensive in general. I think my plan will be phased, there will be a point where I start selling, to reduce exposure, and a point where I then start buying puts or short ETFs to bet on the crash.)
This all assumes that the floor doesn’t just drop out tomorrow and Monday.
I don’t get into anything fancy and no shorting or options for sure. I just do index funds and am primarily committed to buy and hold, but I have a dynamic AA based on how I think the market is valued. Never going to make a huge score but also not going to make a huge mistake.
Some reasons why some companies might not get crushed as hard as we might expect, pulled from another thread:
So they hold onto all the money, lay a bunch of people off, collect some interest or ROI on the money while limiting their overhead/expenses, then resume operations in a year. As opposed to refunding all the money, laying people off, having no liquidity and trying to hang on white knuckle tight for a year.
I’m coming around on this idea somewhat. We’ve already scaled down our recommendations of who goes on ventilators, which is one way of avoiding the ventilator bottleneck. I assume if it comes to full hospitals - the US is going to find a more creative/deceptive way to not admit people than N. Italy’s “everyone over 50 just stay home and die” edict.
Also we’ve got more ventilators now and fewer people in the ICU with seasonal flu - which gives them a lot more wiggle room.
However there is still going to be a point where nurses and doctors are speaking out that they are swamped, and hopefully not getting thrown out of windows.
Remember back in March though when everyone was buying guns and buying up even like the crappiest canned vegetables just in case? I don’t think we’re going to hit anything close to that level of panic again in the second wave unless we wind up with a situation worse than N. Italy and not possible to hide.
That’s pretty much what the cruise lines are all doing. Everyone gets a future cruise credit instead of an actual refund. Even if they give out 10-20% extra on the back end, holding onto that money in the short term allows them to stay in business.
NYC already did it. They sent home the “less sick” COVID patients, regardless of age, and many of them went on to die at home. You take a turn for the worse so quickly that if you don’t have a pulse oximeter, you might just be dead before you realize you need to be in the hospital.
BUT, nobody is told “You’re going to die, go home.” They’re told, “You’re not sick enough to be here, go home and call your doctor if it gets worse.”
Yep, and I suspect we’re going to see a lot of use of like CPAP and O2 in expanded settings where there are more beds in the same amount of space with the same amount of doctors… So capacity goes way up, but quality of treatment goes way down.
Thus we get a higher mortality rate, but we can stay open for business without “tipping over” so easily.
Yes, but then when the governor is like, “LOL wat? We’re only at 60% of capacity,” and the doctors and nurses are all, “Well, actually, we’re at 105% of our normal capacity and growing, but you’re counting that cot in the parking garage with the IV running through a beer bong as part of our capacity…” people will have already changed the channel.
I think in a scenario where people are left to fend for themselves, you’ll see mask usage go up when people start to get scared and non-essentially activity drop significantly when people get REALLY scared, but the state government will have a great deal of power in delaying those responses beyond where they might naturally occur through misinformation and bullshitting.
Yeah, I mean, I don’t think we’re going to have foot shortages necessarily, but I am still glad to have a few months of food on hand in case it gets really bad and Instacart is at capacity again. If I had to go out in the world to work, going to the grocery store wouldn’t be as big of a deal. Since I can legitimately have no exposure, I’m going to keep it that way - especially if things get really bad.
Yeah the same thing happened with my airline credit, which I have to use by the end of the year… Obviously the odds of that happening are like 1%, but they’ll be able to say, “What? We’ve been open for business for months, all of the state and federal government entities say it’s totally safe. LOL fuck you!”
What in the ****ing world, a bankrupt company (hertz) is trying to issue NEW SHARES. A BILLION WORTH. These shares are currently worth zero but some morons on robinhood pushed the stock from nearly worthless to like 5 bucks a few days ago so here we are.
Like, are you joking? (no, they’re not, they just saw all these stupid people and went, well why not? #YOLO)
with this news, hertz stock went up initially before people who aren’t fucking idiots knocked it back down, it’s at 2. Still 4x what it was a few days ago. STONKS.
Hertz said it would warn any potential buyers “the common stock could ultimately be worthless.”
That’ll be front and center on the disclosure I’m sure.
We are in a massive bubble. Or at least some stocks are. We are literally in the 2017 shitcoins redux phase of the stock market. Chesapeake Energy which has been on the verge of bankruptcy for years went from $15 to $77 back to $15 THIS WEEK.
If you want to understand it literally go read the daily thread on wallstreetbets on reddit. Also i posted about the Hertz thing last night including this gem lol:
Is there a reason we’re not all buying Hertz puts? Actually, I’m looking now and it looks like the options market is functioning much more rationally. So I guess the only way to take the free money is to short it, which you can’t do in a retirement account, right?
Plus there’s a risk trading gets halted and you just get screwed? I don’t understand quite how that works.
Hertz is currently worth slightly over $0, and it’s trading at around $2.20, and you’re telling me that it’s not smart to try to capitalize on the stupid people who drove it up to like $6 per share?
