I just filed for unemployment, which is super surreal. I’m not going to pretend like I didn’t find paying for unemployment insurance on myself super annoying up until about two days ago when I realized that I absolutely qualified. I guess I’m going to get that money back and then some… All that had to happen was a world economy wrecking pandemic. I probably won’t bitch about UI payments on myself again after this honestly.
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There’s probably a lot of people trying to file unemployment who just can’t get through on the phone too, since all reports are that the phone lines are basically just endless busy signal.
and I have friends in the same boat of employer giving 2 more paychecks to end of the month.
I don’t buy a one time wave of 3 million new claims as the worst of it at all.
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Yeah. Same for stuff like global supply chain collapse or debt unwinding or w/e. My buddy says great depression imminent. And he makes compelling arguments. But he always thinks the worst is coming. And always likes gold.
I’m like - I could certainly see a depression happening. Or maybe just a bad recession. Or maybe somehow we bounce back in 18 months-ish. I’m not smart enough to try to out guess the market on those things.
Remember the Obama days when bad unemployment #s meant the stock market would actually go UP because that was Helicopter Ben’s cue to print more money?.. yeah, none of us have any clue how this is going to play out…
I see a Great Depression coming w/ 100% certainty unless unprecedented action (on top of what has been done so far) is taken… but I also see w/ 100% certainty that unprecedented action will continue to be taken. How it shakes out, particularly for stock prices, who knows.
Trump and Mnuchin are actually pretty good in this respect, they have zero principles… which means they have zero qualms about printing money any which way possible. Them big leaguing Lindsey Graham, Tim Scott, etc. on unemployment insurance is a good example.
From the bailout thread.
So that 3.5 million has to be low. Not everyone who is going to make a claim knows how to do so or has the means to do so online.
Very credible forecast that next week’s NEW claims will be >4 million:
https://twitter.com/paulgp/status/1243204614125649924
I would have guessed Obama Phones. You know how those Welfare Queens are.
Dont forget netflix subscriptions and 40 inch tvs. Those poors need their entertainment dontcha know? And we need to hate them for it
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I played poker with a black guy who chopped 2nd in one of the LAPC events - guy paid him a $30k premium for first place and the ring lol.
Everyone at the table was like - what did you do with the money? Bailed my brother and sister out of jail. And the mood was immediately dampened.
As long as they keep extending this expanded UI, we should avoid a depression and be primed for a quick recovery once the pandemic ends/unwinds. I think it’s likely to start unwinding, slowly but surely, in 1-4 months.
Cheapest I have ever seen it is $3 here
Where is that? I’ve never seen anything like 50 cents for a dozen eggs.
The $2.50 is more normal around me.
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I don’t think we’re going into a great depression. Once this thing breaks, there’s going to be a bunch of pent up demand for restaurants, bars, and other items. Well, I mean it depends on the government keeping everybody afloat until the country can get back to work.
The demand for things hasn’t changed, just nobody can go out and fulfill it. I know I’m likely to blow off lots of money in restaurants once this thing is ever under control.*
*This assumes we get lucky and get this under control somehow.
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I had a couple of friends who maxed out the 2 years of unemployment insurance during the great recession. Racked up credit cards, whatever it took to limp through.
The girl was fine - doing projects with other people, endlessly redesigning her interior. When she finally needed to she went back to work.
Dude sank into a funk of weed and video games. Rarely left the house. Finally went back to work when he was about to be evicted. Almost ruined him. 6 months after going back to work he got his confidence back and was back to his old self.
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Same, but this assumes that my wife and I both have our jobs.
Damn. Did you totally close operations?
If trucks aren’t shipping we are headed for a catastrophe the scope of which the US hasn’t seen since the civil war. Most of the rest of the world only has to go back to WW2.
I’m already broke and wondering if I spend my old age indoors, so not that big a change for me, but the rest of you are fucked.
I have never gotten a stock trade right so for the good of humanity i just went all in on a 3x short etf. Thank me for taking one for the team later.
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Just my largest customer. I’m operating at like 1-2 shipments a week right now (so my business is generating 300-400 a week in gross income), and that’s nowhere near enough to cover my standard paycheck. The good news is that my big produce season starts 5/1 so this is going to be extremely temporary.
I’ll also very likely end up taking out forgivable loans this year for my business. In my defense I’ll very likely use them to hire 1-2 people for the produce season, and after that if they succeed at getting a few accounts of their own.
IDK this is a super weird year. I’m just trying to make the right moves and not step on any mines.
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Do you have an exit point in mind?