Yeah my president and red-state governors worry me more than anything.
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I remember some people ITF reaching this conclusion weeks ago. And another person ITF shitting all over them for it.
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I can see a lot of ways the economy could tank from here. But the only one I felt sure enough to bet on was the hospital collapse panic. Now that I’m not sure about that, I figure I should go back to standard buy and hold. But I have a feeling that resolve is going to be severely tested.
I have no desire or need to be a day trader or make leveraged short term bets. I have enough more or less for my semi-retirement plans (but of course they get more fun with every little bit more).
If only the world would cooperate and not be impossible to travel in right now. Tomorrow is the day my 401k vests at my job and I could be free anytime after that I wanted to start up my trip again.
I’m not understanding why anyone thinks the hospitals aren’t going to get overrun. We’re still extremely early days, and the only way to fade the hospitals being overrun is probably to be mostly shut down economically for months. The current stimulus bills being proposed aren’t close to solving that.
In reality we’re still confronted with a choice between two poisoned pills and we’re like 3 weeks into a crisis that will last 18-24 months realistically. The fact that we seem to be choosing one (although Donald is busy calling that into question right now potentially setting up the absolute worst case scenario the limp-call-fold line where we take almost all the economic damage AND face tank the virus) doesn’t change the fact that the economy really has almost no shot of still even existing by the time this is over.
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uhhh you came into this thread to “spike the football” (your words) when the market fell 10% in one day.
When a climate scientist says that global warming will increase the severity of hurricanes, then several of the largest hurricanes ever recorded come through in a single season, it’s likely that the climate scientist was correct.
When a climate denier says global warming is a hoax because it snowed today, that is likely incorrect, because that’s not how science works.
When you claim several times that you’re not smart enough to figure out where the market is going despite massive red flags, you should not be challenging people who have been right for weeks.
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Do you have a strong feeling on where it’s going now?
Not strong, but I’m guessing we still have a ways to go before we hit bottom.
Whatever bailout/stimulus/etc package gets put out there will probably bump up the stock market a bit, but then it will fall once people figure out that it doesn’t even come close to addressing the real problems.
Also we haven’t seen the effects of hospitals getting overrun and unemployment spiking. It’s possible that finance people have been accounting for that recently, but I’m betting not.
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lol. The market going down 10% in a day is a hurricane that you predicted correctly, and the market going up 10% in one day is it snowed today? You’re hilarious man. Keep them coming, everyone needs a good laugh in times like these.
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I never predicted the market would go down 10% in a day. I predicted it would go down significantly more than that over a reasonably large timeframe. You still don’t understand the difference, do you know why that is? (Hint: It’s because you’re very dumb and you should stop posting)
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Fuck off asshole. Everyone will always remember your ghoulish gloating ITT. It revealed exactly what sort of person you are.
Are you mad because I called you dumb or because you realized the flaw in your argument and you are in fact dumb?
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I know I’m not dumb and that my strategy is not dumb and will work fine. And I know that you’re the sort of person who goes out of his way to gloat when people lose a bunch of money.
Futures down 2% again. Be prepared for another drop tomorrow
Not really. I’m following your theory that we may be able to escape Italy level carnage throughout most of the country. I’m waiting for more evidence though, because I don’t think I’ll miss out on much of a bump if that becomes true (or more precisely, the analysis ITF has been weeks ahead of the general public so I expect I’ll still be able to get back in cheaply if that becomes more clear) and if that becomes not true we’re likely to learn about it through a massive daily spike or prominent death or something that will tank the market hard before I can do anything about it. I also expect things to get unpredictable in the short term as Trump’s con work to push markets back up compete against reality. To be clear, markets should rise a bit if he gets his way. There’s a definite economic benefit to opening everything back up and downplaying fear at least in the short term. I’m going to channel Keed’s strategy in a way that actually makes sense though, I know the medium term outlook points to a 28% decline off ATH as not enough, so I’m staying out until the price gets more in line with reality.
I think there’s some unforeseeability in the level of badness to come. Even if many places temporarily avoid being NY/Italy, they won’t avoid it permanently without a cure or vaccine, and the economy cannot really be viably locked down for more than 2-3 months without unprecedented levels of disruption. It may be time to throw out the playbook, and we’re entering the horizon of unknown unknowns.
Like, this is the reason that one of the main exercises undertaken during the presidential transition was for a pandemic, but Trump’s people blew it off and, in any event, the people who were there are now gone, and it wouldn’t have mattered anyway because the president is an idiot. A decade ago, when Contagion came out, Charlie Rose had a roundtable discussion with the director/writer (or whomever) and some infectious disease specialists, and everyone was like, “ya, this is a real thing that will very likely happen.” Hell, Michael Lewis wrote a book about this sort of shit like a year or two ago.
All of this was pretty obvious, and it was pretty obvious that Trump and Fox News and the right wing griftosphere were playing with fire, as were republican senators when they passed on the opprotunity to get Trump out of office.
If this forum has any message for the American people it’s, “We told you so!”
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im getting that FOMO but trying to restrain
I’m getting fucking RICH from that $2000 I invested on Monday!
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