5 moderates did not vote against the bill. No chance on discharge petition imo.
I really think weâre about to see that the donors have close to zero juice. Itâs like Democrats in reverse.
Dems get all their money from small dollar hopium donors but do the bidding of corporations, the GOP gets money from wealthy donors but follows the whims of paint-sniffing cousin fucking Newsmax viewers.
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Your position is that because âGOP moderatesâ voted on the McCarthy bill, then 5 moderates are very unlikely at some later date vote for a debt limit increase that pushes the issue forward a few months?
Plus maybe they get a little something for their trouble.
How will the debt ceiling crisis be resolved? Krugman says there are four options. I added a few more.
- Discharge petition + sane Rs
- Claim debt ceiling unconstitutional
- Platinum coin
- Premium bonds
- Deal with McCarthy
- No solution (fuck around, find out)
- Other/bastard
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It gets pushed to the budget debate, and then it becomes a govt shutdown situation with some ultimate compromise.
Seems reasonable, maybe with some fucking around and finding out first then making the deal with McCarthy to do that. I mean I donât think they can resist at least taking a peek over the cliff edge.
Ultimately Biden and the Dems, and probably some decent chunk of voters think that holding the country hostage over the debt ceiling is wrong but doing it over the budget is totally fair game. And ultimately itâs a distinction without a difference (except like 2-3 months). So I expect a short term debt limit raise and kick the can until the fall.
I just donât see how this is a winning issue for McCarthy/Republicans. They got crushed the last two shutdowns and donât think they want to try it again (although there are more that do). I think at most Biden makes some super minor concessions, but think more likely he holds firm and we get a short term debt ceiling raise and then do this dance all over again.
This polling just looks terrible for Râs case if they play chicken. While people generally donât want to raise ceiling, they strongly prefer that to default, and pretty sure Republicans will get the blame again. Shutdown seems like a pure gift to Bidenâs re-election chances.
What are premium bonds?
A bond with super high interest rate. So instead of issuing a one year $100 bond with 10% interest, you issue a $50 bond with 120% interest (but then sell it in the open market for $100). For debt ceiling calculation, the second bond arguably only counts as $50, even though for both you owe $110 in a year. You could go even crazier with higher interest rates/longer term bonds.
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Seems like it should be a plot of a James Bond movie that the villain is going to assassinate the speaker of the house to force U.S. to default because they bought puts on everything.
Americans wonât remember any of the politics behind what happens with this by November 2024. However if the economy is in the shitter you better bet Biden is going to be blamed for it by most regardless of if that is true or not.
If this was happening closer to the election it might matter but there will be 100 other news cycles between now and then.
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Section 4 of the 14th amendment:strong text
The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
Not unlike the 2nd amendment the first sentence seems to qualify what debt is being referenced. However if you just remove some clauses, like the way conservatives justices seem to read the 2nd amendment then you get a most unqualified argument that the US must pay itâs debt. I think this is a valid argument even if you do read the sentence in itâs entirety with all the long winded clauses.
But even though it would be a very obvious contradiction to the way conservatives read the 2nd amendment, I can see at least 2 of the justices (maybe more) try and Calvin ball the argument as only qualified for âcivil war debtâ.
In the event we get that far without a resolution the ruling would be in the face of an ongoing economic crisis.
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You donât understand. âShall not be infringedâ means that there canât possibly be any laws that say anything ever about guns. âShall not be questionedâ means that the debt limit, not the actual debt, is what is sacrosanct and there must be budget cuts rather than issuing new bonds to cover the debt.
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So how do we best hedge the debt ceiling crisis bullshit?
âNo, Mr Biden. I expect you to default.â
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Iâm old enough to remember when Ted when on Tuckerâs show and apologized for calling the 1/6 insurrectionists âterroristsâ but yeah debt ceiling negotiators probably a better fit for the word.
The irony of these debt crisis events is that there is always a rush to âsafetyâ (US Treasuries) when ever they happen. They go and buy the security that is being threatened to default???
Either no one actually believes they wonât get resolved or there just truly is no other place to hide in a congressional induced debt panick.
The last showdown we had in 2011 resulted in 20% decline in the S&P that started in May and didnât bottom until September.
The easy answer is donât do anything and just wait it out.
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