Individual Economics in the Age of COVID-19

That ‘I won’t pay more and I won’t sign a lease… and I’ll give you 30 days notice’ is perfect if the market hasn’t cratered yet. We know they aren’t going evict you lol. When the market finally does crater you find another similar place and tell them to match it -5% or so with something insane like a 2-3 year lease term lol. That offer you let them counter, but under no circumstances do you stay if they aren’t the winning offer. You know a lot about how they see you from the way they’ve played this so far and none of it is good. These people are not people to be in business with long term without a below market rent.

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Dude move to Austin. The poker games when they are going are supposedly really good, rental prices weren’t crazy before COVID out in the burbs, and there’s no state income tax. That last part is fucking awesome btw.

Help me please I need RL friends lol.

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So I’m going to look up 2-3 other places in the area today, and see what they’re listed at. The first one was $2,100 to $3,000. Maybe fire off some e-mails and ask them what their best rate is. But the amenities here are a little nicer, as is the location. On the other hand, all of that is ~worthless to me until I feel safe going outside and using all that stuff, going to bars and restaurants, etc. So I should probably just compare them head to head and use that to set a market price?

Yeah the only thing is they still get a 9% increase here as last year the price was $3,060 and they gave a one-month rent concession, hence my effective price was $2,805. Still, time has to work in my favor on this one, so going month-to-month at $2,805 seems effective for me.

Yeah, they’re a shit company. The building has the perfect location for me once the pandemic is over, the pool really does look awesome, and I’m really bummed out that my experience here has been ruined in Year #1 by this pandemic. I should be out dating, meeting new people, socializing, enjoying the area, etc.

I’ve played there and I love the area, but no online poker seems like a huge deal right now obviously… I also don’t know anybody, it’s far from my family, I’d rather not be in the burbs, and I have a pretty sweet private home game I’m in here that I don’t think the Austin poker scene can touch.

If it never comes back post-COVID, though, who knows? It’s a shitty time to be trying to figure this out.

Me too lol… I didn’t realize you were in Austin, I pass through every year (well, you know) after the WSOP.

Lol we’ll have to hang out when you swing through after the WSOP lol. I have a sneaking suspicion the home games in Austin are great by the way. Way too much money here for that to not be the case.

EDIT: Note to self: you’re overselling again, stop overselling, Jesus Christ you’re like a lost puppy. Goddamn that’s annoying. Lol obviously I am totally sane.

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38% increase, lmao. They’re probably using a revenue management platform that isn’t capable of pricing in what’s going on correctly and is weighting historical data too much.

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Yeah I got into a private 5/T game there, but it wasn’t a home game. I was allowed in partially because I was passing through, I’m not sure if the invite would be good if I moved there. It came from a fellow pro who knew I was cool people and friendly, sociable and willing to give action. Great game, I ran REALLY bad and still lost less than a buyin lol…

I tend to suffer from chronic niceness, but situations like this accentuate my inner snark. Below is roughly what I would say, but I have no idea if it’s optimal and welcome feedback from others.

Name,

I have enjoyed my time here thus-far and welcome the opportunity to remain a part of organization name. That said, I value mutual respect and appreciation within any business arrangement. Unfortunately, your decision to drastically raise my rent in the midst of a pandemic suggests that I am viewed not as a valued customer - but as a resource to be squeezed. I find this especially strange given your current vacancy rate and the overall rental climate, both of which should make reliable tenants like myself all the more valuable.

Because I trust that organization name does in fact value its customers and would prefer to maintain a reputation in-line with that philosophy, I am eager to negotiate a new rental contract that demonstrates this. In the context of his pandemic, below is what I believe to be a fair arrangement between a valued customer and a forward-thinking business such as yours:

Insert rent price, other requests, etc.

Thank you,
Name

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My offer was a 50% increase that would have started in January and extended for an unknown but limited time only (lol). I’ve been lucky to rent from individuals who have one property that they used personally and just never sold for whatever reason. Unfortunately, the last owners decided to unload and the unit was purchased by a shell corporation in another state. They were so concerned about maintaining anonymity that the (sparse) communication was run through some 22-year-old Snooki property manager. I don’t think I would have renewed at even a 25% discount.

One thing lots of otherwise sophisticated parties don’t get, which baffles me in the age of Trump, is the value of putting the burden of action on the other party. If I were a commercial tenant, there is no way in hell I’m paying rent right now. What is a landlord going to do, evict me and undergo the costs of re-tenanting the space? No chance.

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We were looking for houses pre cover and stopped our search. Anything put on the market is still selling fast and for above market rate.

It would be crazy to buy a house right now right?

I’m in DFW. And my college roommate lives in Austin. Unless you object, I will reach out to you for a meet up when I head down there when this virus is under control.

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I don’t know the legalities, but if you sign a lease for 10 years, are you not legally on the hook for 10 years of rent if you break the lease. Unless you come to a mutually agreeable alternative?

Yes, but everything is negotiable. Most any decent sized commercial landlord is getting payment relief from their lender right now. And it costs money to enforce a lease. Its like a reverse Trump tactic, the small guy can string along the big guy and eventually settle. A mom and pop operator can credibly claim there’s no recovery.

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What does this mean?

I think it means that they will make it look like they have no assets you can go after if you try to sue them for breaching the terms of the lease.

Ugh ofc. I see where I got confused. I took “mom and pop” to refer to the landlord…

I hope @boredsocial will weigh on this but some of my feedback:

  1. Getting mad at a landlord raising the rent is like getting mad at a bee for stinging you. It’s just what they do, so the overall note seems like more effort than is required. That’s why I tried to keep my mock email to Cuse landlord just a few sentences. Let’s just get down to business, you get me? Not trying to be harsh. Let the scope and complexity of the negotiation dictate the effort you expend.

  2. IMO, the points you make in the email are better used as open ended questions during the negotiation. Refer to seem of the examples I provided earlier in the thread. They covey the same messages, but open ended questions begin to put the work on the other side as Riverman also mentioned.

Example: Pool bracelets:

Landlord writes to Cuse: Oh sure, we can throw in some pool bracelets for you.
Cuse responds: Oh that’s fantastic, how will that work?
Landlord: Well, we will give you two additional bracelets.
Cuse: Well, I’m pretty fly for an enlightened guy, what happens six months down line when I’m ready to party?
Landlord: (Sigh) We will just add you in the computer as cleared for unlimited guests.
Cuse: Oh, that seems pretty reasonable. Now, next topic, I noticed that bidets are the new it item, what progams do you have in place for furnishing upgrades? Rinse and Repeat.

  1. A nit, but while I don’t often beat on the table, I am also never “eager” or “love” the product when I can avoid it. This is a whole chapter in itself, but if you’ve ever traded in a vehicle, did you notice how the salesperson hems and haws and says things like, "how long has this dent been here or the paint looks kind of faded. Deliberate tactic to get you to lower your expectation of value, Turn the tables when you can. Again, you can spend way too much time on this but avoid words that convey buying signals when you can.
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If your landlord waits you out until the final week to make reasonable counters they’re clueless. Waiting to schedule movers is pretty risky, and I assume most people have the move lined up well before then. There’s usually a pretty significant amount of shit you have to do just to prepare for the move which can take weeks.

I have a ton of furniture for a condo and the red ink starts flowing way before the move date. I did all of the leather wrapping myself this time: two 7’ sofas, a 5’ loveseat and chair, a pair of vintage mid-century loungers, and a 1930’s art deco lounger. That alone took several days. I have a couple ridiculous pieces that required several moving companies take a look in person before agreeing to try it like a 12’ antique solid oak church pew that had to be maneuvered down a halfpace stairwell. Combined it all fills up a 30 x 10 storage unit completely and I started working on it a month in advance. Anyway, the point is be skeptical of anyone who thinks there’s still time to negotiate less than two weeks out. That person is an idiot, sociopath, or heir. Possibly all three.

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It seems like it would be crazy to me, but you are correct that the market is still hot. We just inherited a house and are rushing to get it sold quick because it seems like the housing market is out of touch with reality at the moment.

Of course, we will sell it and the housing market will continue to go up. My opinion on all markets large and small is just about the greatest contrarian indicator this side of Riverman.

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Maybe in the meantime you two can meet somewhere in the middle.

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