Predictit has Trump at 18% to be convicted by the Senate and 9% not to be President by the end of 2019. This is the biggest trial of my faith in markets since Bitcoin.
This is a political process, not a legal proceeding. Controlling the narrative is essential and there’s an argument to be made that keeping this scope narrow will help with that.
Yeah, one of the reasons it seems to be sticking this time, as opposed to the Mueller report, is that this is much easier for the unwashed masses to follow. Even the busiest congresscritter has time to read a 5-page transcript/memo/report thingy, and it’s easy for the media to break down.
I don’t mind them sticking with this, because it’s enough.
Agree It feels like on 99% of issues the GOP manages to win the messaging war because they have simple solutions to complex problems that can be reduced to chantable soundbites.
Immigration? Build the wall.
Climate change? Hoax.
Taxes? Tea Party.
This is one chance where the dems were handed a relatively simple story. You don’t need Charlie Day breaking out the string to show obstruction or whatever. He asked a foreign leader to dig up dirt on a political rival. “Do me a favor…” That’s all you need. Put him on the defensive trying to deflect with nuanced “well actually”'s. That is not his strong point.
It is showbiz. What could go wrong with giving a reality TV star a spotlight in a yugely watched courtroom drama where the consequential jurors are all Republican senators beholden to the voters who will surely not let some phone call sway their opinion of Trump? Trump’s only skill is media manipulation, let’s see how it turns out. My projection: not well.
The Dems get one chance to thoroughly investigate and impeach Trump. Limiting themselves to only one charge is a grave error in my opinion. When Al Capone can’t be found guilty for murder and racketeering you can still try him for his taxes. If Trump beats the Ukraine charge then that’s it. There won’t be another impeachment for collusion, obstruction, emoluments, corruption etc.
If a reality TV star gets elected and his AG takes the position that he can literally do whatever the fuck he wants unless he is impeached, well then his opposition has no choice but to sit quietly and let him do whatever the fuck he wants for four years. Up to and including pulling every dirty trick possible to win the next election.
I am SenorKeed and I am very smart. I am also a massive troll who openly admires Tucker Carlson for his trolling ability.
Of course I never said any of this. I’m saying I don’t think impeachment will work out well for Democrats if this phone call is all they have. It will backfire. It will help Trump get re-elected. I like Democrats who do things that don’t help Trump get re-elected!
I’m not sure if they only get one chance. There is some merit to the idea of taking a single idea and running it into the ground, then shifting gears and moving onto the next issue and hammering at that.
My issue with Pelosi is that she still wants to treat impeachment like it’s a legal process rather than a political process. Hyper-partisanship is the new paradigm and impeachment needs to be viewed as a political weapon in that context. The old bipartisanship longed for by centrist weenies is dead.
The Founding Fathers put an impeachment rifle on the wall for Congress to use. Take the damn shot.
The charges are substantially worse too. I mean, obviously it’s terrible for a candidate to wink at foreign interference in an election and then use his presidential powers to cover it up. No doubt. But it’s much worse for the president to run U.S. diplomacy to undermine free elections. It’s also harder to run the government in a cover-up friendly way, so things are leaking much faster and the cover-up won’t work as well.