Impeachment Watch by The Numbers

I appreciate the work nunnehi

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You said whoever was #118 would go down in history. You are probably the only person in this very politically aware forum that knows who #118 is. In the minute it’s taken since I scrolled by your post I’ve already forgotten their name.

Like, it’s a good thing that more people are being dragged kicking and screaming into agreeing that we should at least ask the questions about impeachment - but the breathless updates about each one is really dumb. And, as everyone predicted, #118 was absolutely meaningless in terms of influencing Pelosi.

What’s the next magic number? Surely she can’t go against a 3/5 majority right?

Here you are being disingenuous again. I said the person would get media notice. The guy who was 118 was interviewed on MSNBC. This guy had never ever been interviewed nationally before. He has been noted on several major news sites as being the guy over the ledge. In no way have I said he’s a move the needle on Pelosi. History will note this guy if something happens, but he’s noteworthy to the media now for his 15 seconds of fame that he never had before.

As for your comment about magic number, your assumption should be that she doesn’t have one. If it somehow stays stuck at 118, then that was probably a number Pelosi gave them to reach. The clock has been stopped because of the tragedies, which benefits both slow walking Democrats and Trump. A story I read today said that Nadler expects to move on filing impeachment articles (if he does) by late fall. He isn’t trying to time it with the election. His caveat is that the American people have to be in support of impeachment in order for them to do it, but he thinks the hearings (Sep/Oct) will get them there. I’m dubious about that if the media doesn’t give it enough attention, which is quite possible.

Finally, this thread is here because a lot of Democrats have come out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry since July 18th (33 if memory serves). It’s newsworthy whether you think it is or not, sorry. I’m only as ‘breathless’ as how many people actually go on the record.

The 118 also allows other Dems to get on board without being the tipping point. By the time Congress starts up again in September, that number could be 130-140 or whatever.

“As a note on the Democrats coming out in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry, the next few are going to be really important. Some are very scared probably, because the person who gets them to an official 118 will be a history marker and won’t be forgotten.”

Those are your words in the trump thread.

Cuse followed up on this with me that day, and here was my response to him:

If you were a reporter, I would think you deliberately butcher context and meaning.

If you want me to clarify what I mean, pick at my argument, but stop assuming what you think I mean is what I mean. You’ve basically never been right on that.

I mean, so far the evidence you’ve given that the media would not forget him and it would be a huge story is that he got interviewed on MSNBC… And where on MSNBC? In a major prime time slot with Maddow or Hayes? Nope, at ~10:35 pm EST with Ali Velshi filling in for Lawrence O’Donnell.

And, to your point that he would not be forgotten, that lasted all of five minutes… Ali forgot his name at the end of the interview, stumbled, and had to look down and read it.

And as far as I know, he wasn’t interviewed anywhere else. Could be wrong about that, though. I didn’t look too hard.

He was mentioned in a ton of articles as being the one who crossed 118. Lawrence is the second highest rated show on MSNBC on a daily basis, so putting Lawrence down isn’t really appropriate in regard to ratings. The guy should have been slicker and not put out his vote on a Friday but even with that he would have had higher ratings with Ali than Chris Hayes.

You’re kind of proving the point that a nobody got asked on because it was thought he was significant. I thought it was pretty hilarious that Ali totally screwed up the end of that interview (called him Congresswoman, too), but the guy deserved it for calling him Olly. Not a single other person has been singled out in a news article (outside of Ted Deutch who might be the real 118) and certainly none of the random people have been brought on for interviews when they came out in support.

Use this search in google and see if what I’m saying is more supported or if what you’re saying is more supported: salud carbajal 118 member of congress in support of impeachment

In that search there are articles related to this ‘moment’ from: Washington Post, CNN, Reuters, Huffpost, USA Today, US News, NBC News, ABC News, and Fox News

It goes on and on and on, but that’s plenty to support my claim.

I don’t think him being mentioned in passing in a bunch of articles = a history marker who won’t be forgotten.

To put it another way, in two years nobody will remember him as 118. Not even most political reporters will remember him. Heck if you polled CNN and MSNBC anchors right now I bet under 25% would know who 118 was by name. Ali forgot his name IN the interview…

Man you hate taking an L, damn dude. That guy would never get an article if it weren’t for what he did. You know what that’s called? A footnote in history, you know, a historical marker. Jeez, take an L.

Gerry Connolly of Virginia is now the 119th Democratic member of Congress to go on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table Al Green’s impeachment resolution. The hard floor is now 130.

He cited both the Mueller report and Trump’s behavior after the El Paso and Dayton tragedies as leading him to his decision.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler has officially come out on the record in support of officially starting an impeachment inquiry. He’s the 120th Democratic member of Congress to come out in support. He voted Nay on tabling Al Green’s impeachment resolution.

He’s quite obviously been in favor of starting an official impeachment inquiry since the Mueller report came out, but even I’m a bit surprised he was willing to go on the record this early (his people said he’s been saying this for weeks, so he’s probably more deserving of somewhere in the 80s than 120).

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This one’s actually somewhat of a big deal. Wouldn’t be surprised if Nadler triggers another 10+ to go public in the coming days.

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David Price of North Carolina is the 121st Democratic member of Congress to come out on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. He voted Yay to table the Al Green impeachment resolution. That makes the hard floor 131 in favor of staring an official impeachment inquiry.

Who are the other ten?

The other 10 are the ones who voted Nay on tabling the Al Green impeachment resolution, but haven’t come out on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry. Karen Bass and Frank Pallone are both on another list as being on the record, but CNN and NBC have not confirmed their names.

Probably close to 70 percent of the people who have come out on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry since Mueller were people who voted Yay to table Al Green’s impeachment resolution.

131 is 55.7% of the caucus and 60% of 218 (a House majority).

I think it starts to really matter and apply pressure to Pelosi when it gets to ~160. That’s just over two thirds of the caucus.

Here’s what Nadler said a week or so ago:

“This is formal impeachment proceedings,” Nadler said of his panel’s investigation in an August interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett.

At this point it’s academic, and when they get back they’re planning on doing a lot of hearings. I said it above, but he’s planning on making a decision about Articles of Impeachment in the late fall (might be as late as December, but probably won’t be later). He’s expecting the major court decisions to come out in October, and if they go the way they’re supposed to it will be a wall of dominoes falling of witnesses that have refused to testify.

If McGahn is forced to testify, everyone else will because they’re all depending on McGahn not being forced to testify. Congress is tying their whole case to him in the courts. It’s unthinkable that the courts would say the White House Counsel is immune from testimony, but it’s 2019 in 'murica, so it’s a dumb sweat.

Adam Schiff said that while they’re planning on interviewing all those witnesses when they win in court, that they will not be a deciding factor on whether to purse Articles of Impeachment in case the court decisions don’t go their way. He was very strong in saying that if those people don’t testify that’s Obstruction of Congress, and an Article of Impeachment. Everyone’s coming around to the idea that it doesn’t matter what the Senate does, and they want to do this ‘quickly’.

No it’s not, not in the eyes of 90% of the public. Not in the eyes of the media. The narrative matters, and the I-word is a very big deal.

I agree with you, but that’s what he said. I still expect them to do some kind of random vote when they come back to satisfy someone, but they are actually investigating referred Articles of Impeachment already.

To put a finer point on it, for Nixon there was a full vote in the House to have the Judiciary Committee open an official impeachment inquiry. If the Judiciary Committee already says it’s conducting a formal impeachment investigation it’s just bypassed the ceremonial step. I still think that ceremonial step needs to happen so we can easily see who needs to be voted out for not upholding their Constitutional duty.