I’m watching the storm, not the predictions other than as a comparison. Every time a prediction doesn’t hold, it’s great news. On Saturday, St. Catherine and Kingston would have been obliterated by the path it was predicted to go on. Over 1.5 million of the over 2 million in Jamaica live in those areas. I still expect there to be severe flooding and wind damage if it continues west before it moves north, but it will be absolutely nothing like what was predicted on Saturday unless it has a massive change in track.
One of the key things over the last several years is there have been a ton of misses about the strength of hurricanes. The vast majority of them were wildly wrong, though they’ve gotten the strength of this one almost exactly correct in the predictions, including the timing of strength increases. In most cases over the last several years, even though they blew the strength, they got the path right within three days of landfall almost every time. What I think the models fail to adjust for is the strength and heat of water for a storm that has never happened before in an untouched water in a hurricane season (again, Katrina was this for the Gulf but this is hotter almost 90 degree water temperature). This thing is just powering through the supposed steering that’s supposed to happen, so I think they may botch track hopefully in a good way.
I don’t know how many people paid attention to this thing from the beginning, but I’ve been monitoring it since it was a tropical wave for almost 2 weeks. It was supposed to face extreme challenges to make it to the Caribbean but would explode into something bad if it made it there. It easily made it into the Caribbean and then just stalled as a tropical storm. I think that’s the one key thing that has totally changed the trajectory of this storm. This theoretically should have all been over for Jamaica by now, and I still don’t think the storm is going to be past them by the predicted time tomorrow almost 3 days late. West west west.
Definitely agree with some of this, but not entirely. 3 or 4 days ago, there was a ton of uncertainty with the forecast track (although a catastrophic scenario for Jamiaca appeared assured) due to the extremely slow speed (along other complicating factors). Now, the uncertainty is gone and you can see that looking at the convergence of the spaghetti models. It may shift some miles east or west as always as she comes ashore, but at this point the die has been cast.
I will remain optimistic until I can’t. This storm has defied expectations by at least 30 miles already. That’s a big deal for such a slow moving storm.
A few years ago another hurricane that looked to be on a devastating collision with Ja moved south by about 30 miles off its predicted track. That 30 miles spared the island from widespread catastrophic damage.
I’m hoping right along with you. And, while I’m far from an expert on the topology of Jamaica, there surely are better and worse landfall locations within the cone of certainty. Honestly the most realistic hopeful thing that is more or less up to chance is whether we get lucky and Melissa undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle at/near landfall.
I think if it hits Ja it will be a cat 5. The biggest population center is Montego Bay/St. James in the most current projected landfall. That’s the northern part of the island and I’m not that sure of its topography. I’m much more familiar with Kingston’s easy flooding and how it’s a series of steps downhill. Kingston 20 is at the top of the hill and Kingston 5 is near the flat. Water appears to have been turned off in St. Catherine as of today.
Landfall is always better where there’s the least amount of people, but if it makes any landfall in Ja there will be catastrophic flooding everywhere. Today has been described to me as eerie. I’m sensing the impatience to get it over with factor too. That makes me very nervous.
I cannot imagine having that kind of monster churning away out my back door and having to just groove on knowing it’s coming to fuck everything up DAYS later. That’s some psychological torture bullshit.
