The David and Goliath analysis is especially terrible because it could be an interesting gambling story but he took the wrong angle (i.e. David was actually the favorite).
Instead, the analysis should be that Goliath was so strong that he was a huge favorite over whoever they sent. So rather than send their best warrior who would put up a good fight but still almost certainly lose, they decided to gamble and went with David. If Goliath was able to close on David, he would be dead in seconds, but if he managed to get a lucky sling in, he could win. Basically the standard point that when you’re a big underdog in a winner take all situation, you want to do everything to increase variance as that maximizes your EV.
and now, the most poorly constructed sentence I have ever read:
And this was Thermistocles’ gamble. He would give up a small chance to win – a defensive battle in the open ocean; and risk having no chance to win – Xerxes follows proper strategy and bottles up the Greek fleet; to a much larger chance to win – Xerxes wants a quick and glorious victory and is willing to risk losing maneuverable superiority in close quarters.
I’ve honestly read it 6 times now and despite typing it out, I still have no idea what’s going on. If you are a grammar nit do NOT read this book.
I’m still trying to figure out why there is earnest and very specific speculation about David & Goliath in a history book. Perhaps later chapters will delve into Santa Claus’ big gamble having Rudolph run point.