It’s more that Biden needs to be within a few points in both those states and have that same outcome. We’re talking that Brown was a 12 point flip in 2018 vs. what went on the rest of the state. Tester’s is harder to quantify, but based on his likely opponent’s endorsements, unless everyone’s just had it with Tester there’s no way they’re putting this guy in. I would not be surprised to see him win the state by more than he won the last election he was in. I think just based on how counter they run to the state’s leanings and how long they’ve been there that yes they are significant favorites, but we can’t know for sure until November…
Just remember, Mitch is going to step down or die at some point after 2024 and his replacement will be a Democrat for a while (not sure what the special election rules are there and don’t feel like looking it up). He might have just enough of a f*** you at Trump if there’s a slim majority for the GOP that he could step down right after. Right now the only sure flip looks like Manchin’s seat.