the TN legislature is unbelievably brain-wormed right now, the speaker only gives a shit about owning the libs, actually governing is not even in the top 10 priorities for the GOP
And, ya know, maybe a state that still hasnt outlawed child marriage is just pretty fucked up in general
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I wonder what ādivisive conceptsā they mean.
Sounds like a winning strategyā¦
You couldnāt invent a better opponent for Sherrod Brown.
Seems like the D keeps playing this game. Hi reward but hi risk.
politician might be the only job where you can still say shit like that and not be fired or suffer repercussions.
I saw this on Bluesky and did not believe it could be real
The Floyd County (Va.) Public Schools have suspended a One Division, One Book community reading of Katherine Applegateās Wishtree following complaints that the middle-grade novel depicts a monoecious red oak, a tree with reproductive parts that can pollinate and flower simultaneously. In the book, originally published in 2017, the tree claims an identity that is ābothā female and male and responds to diverse pronouns: āCall me she. Call me he. Anything will work.ā (Trees have four primary systems of reproduction.)
The schoolās reading program kicked off on March 4 and was already underway when parent Jodi Farmer, whose children attend a private Christian academy in neighboring Carroll County, took to Facebook to inform Floyd County residents about the reference to gender. Farmer challenged Wishtreeās nonbinary account of the oakās identity, calling the book āindoctrination at its finest.ā
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If Tester and Brown somehow hold it will be a miracle.
Likable 3-term incumbent Senators who won their third elections at the height of Trump and who fit well into their statesā mentality of who should be a Senator there would be a miracle?
Manchin would probably win again if he ran but heās a doofus who didnāt want to run last time and effed everything up anyway when he ran and won.
And what the fuck is wrong with NC democrats, they keep losing everything in a state thatās being flooded with college educated people against totally batshit insane GOP candidates.
In the last two presidential election years, the senate races were won by the same party as that stateās vote for president in 70 out of 71 cases.
Theyāre gerrymandered just as bad as Wisconsin is/was. Maybe worse.
Do you think Brown and Tester are popular politicians in their states? Neither of those two were on the ballot in the last two presidential elections. Tester won by 4 points in 2012 despite Montana voting for Romney and he won by 4 points in 2018 in prime Trump time. Brown won by 6 points in 2012 and by 7 in 2018 in prime Trump time with Ohio being a massively red state by 2018 (popular vote overall in Ohio in 2018 was 52.27% Republican to 47% Democrat). These are not typical candidates and you shouldnāt hold them to typical standards. It would be great to dial down some of your pessismism youāve relentlessly had since at least 2018 that has never panned out as you thought it would.
I think theyāre both significant favorites to be re-elected, because if you couldnāt bounce them in prime Trump, itās gonna be really hard to now. Their constituents know what they do for them based on being in the Senate for almost 20 years, and they also know what their opponents will not do for them by running on bat**** platforms. In Brownās case, heās a much heavier favorite to me, especially because his opponent is a clown. The primary hasnāt happened in Montana yet, but it will probably be House clown Matt Rosendale running against Tester, who lost to him in 2018, and his record is wow in the House.
EDITED TO ADD: Correction, it looks like Rosendale decided to run and dropped out after Trump endorsed someone else. The one theyāre behind is Tim Sheehy, with all the Senate class clowns and Trump backing him.
One last edit is adding this doozy of a screenshot of Sheehyās endorsements. This is not going to go well for him at all vs. Tester.
House clown Matt Rosendale isnāt running for any office in 2024 so it aināt gonna be him.
I just corrected the entry as you were writing that. Saw that after
Right. Weāre kind of in uncharted territory here.
I donāt think the 2018 (as you call it āprime Trump timeā) is a great comparison because it was a mid-term.
Iām just saying weāre going to need people to simultaneously vote Brown/Trump and Tester/Trump on the same ballot. (Either that or Biden is going to have to become legit competitive in Ohio and Montana)
Can they do it? I hope so.
Iād agree itās much more likely that Sherrod holds on because of his opponent and because Ohio isnāt quite as red as Montana, but I would stop short of calling either a favorite (and certainly not a significant one).
BTW, Iām not as pessimistic as you seem to think about 2024. If you asked me now, Biden wins a close one, but they lose the senate.
Very high variance though with over 7 months to go. A landslide either way is possible, though Democrats can do only so well in the senate because of the map. Even best case scenario, I canāt see them exceeding +2. Worst case is minus 8.
Itās more that Biden needs to be within a few points in both those states and have that same outcome. Weāre talking that Brown was a 12 point flip in 2018 vs. what went on the rest of the state. Testerās is harder to quantify, but based on his likely opponentās endorsements, unless everyoneās just had it with Tester thereās no way theyāre putting this guy in. I would not be surprised to see him win the state by more than he won the last election he was in. I think just based on how counter they run to the stateās leanings and how long theyāve been there that yes they are significant favorites, but we canāt know for sure until Novemberā¦
Just remember, Mitch is going to step down or die at some point after 2024 and his replacement will be a Democrat for a while (not sure what the special election rules are there and donāt feel like looking it up). He might have just enough of a f*** you at Trump if thereās a slim majority for the GOP that he could step down right after. Right now the only sure flip looks like Manchinās seat.