Fall LC thread

Holy shit that’s a deep cut

Am I remembering correctly that a chief complaint about Gladwell was that he fudges statistics and case studies to make points that don’t actually manifest from the referenced data? The fact that he uses statistics and case studies has done a lot to validate his perspective to mass audiences while leaving much to be desired from those who specialize in the act itself of research. This is somewhat to be expected given that neither Gladwell nor Lewis are scientists. They’re journalists.

In that regard, I agree that they’re both intelligent. To me, their intelligence largely manifests in their storytelling ability. Both excel at disseminating and reframing complex concepts and clusters of information into a compelling narrative. But both are also journalists, not scientists.

A person could almost be forgiven for thinking they’re the same kind of journalist, too, but there’s a key difference to me.

Take, for example, Moneyball. Lewis said hey, aren’t baseball statistics fun?! And he made them fun, but that’s because the story was never about the actual numbers, nor does he turn to them to ever validate his story. His storytelling relies on a concept called “narrative fidelity,” wherein the numbers could be 100% bogus, but readers don’t care because the story feels true.

Gladwell, at least in my perception, might seem similar, because his storytelling style compels us to accept his stories as true. In some instances, we as readers might not even realize we’re massaging the data if we look into it because now we have an emotional attachment to the story being true.

The difference, though, is that Gladwell is pointing to his statistics as the point. Yes, isn’t this narrative fun and interesting, and now that he’s got your attention, just so you know, everything he said is true because of the data it relies on.

It’s one thing to be like here are a bunch of numbers to support the narrative, but if you look into them and I’ve made any errors, I accept that, because the numbers were never the point. The story, the events, the people, the reporting, those are all true regardless of whether he got the numbers wrong.

Gladwell is offering a very different kind of book where you have to accept the numbers as the premises his entire narrative is built on, and if those don’t hold up, it’s hard not to feel like the entire book was a giant waste of time. Indeed, it’s not even that he gets the numbers wrong, it’s that he uses them to generate different and sometimes completely unrelated claims. The reader feels like a rebel, like we’re digging deep underneath the surface no one else ever looks beyond. Maybe that’s enough for a lot of people.

So to me, the comparison is Michael Lewis is Michael Crichton for nonfiction narratives (Jurassic Park era). No one is attacking the dude for using cutting edge science to posit what would happen if we cloned dinosaurs just because that science has now been shown to maaaaaaaaybe not work the way he thought, but then Crichton never said and from this, we can know all of these things about the world and what would really happen if we cloned dinosaurs. He was just telling a cool story. Ray Bradury’s Martian Chronicles is a great book, as is Andy Weir’s The Martian, even though both utilize science that we can happily discard now as false.

Malcolm Gladwell is Michael Crichton for nonfiction narratives from State of Fear onward, where suddenly he’s a climate change denier. He makes all of these claims as though what he’s saying is predictable or falsifiable because he based them on hard numbers, while in the same breath saying don’t question or judge him for any bad science, he’s just a journalist.

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Malcolm Gladwell is a Joe Paterno truther and PSU kiddie rape apologist. That pretty much ends the conversation.

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Oh?

It’s ironic that I found out about this stance on the Bill Simmons podcast, as my opinion of each of them has followed the same slow decline over the years and in both cases I’m left wondering if they started sucking more or I started sucking less.

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Could it be we are just humans with blind spots and are often wrong about things.

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image

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We’ve all got blind spots. Big ones. Telling ourselves that we don’t is stupid and incredibly dangerous.

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I need to think about this a little more but this might be a great analogy.

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I’m the only person I’ve ever met that doesn’t have obvious blind spots.

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I legit laughed a little when I read this. Good post lol. That being said I know you’re being sarcastic, but unfortunately most people don’t think about the fact that they have blind spots nearly enough. Most of us are super worried about risks that we understand really well and totally ignore risks that are sitting in our blind spots that are often much larger.

For example I’m obese. I used to be morbidly obese. I’ve lost a lot of weight mainly because my body started loudly announcing to me that if I didn’t the price I would pay would be considerable. That risk lived in one of my blind spots until it became so pressing it was literally on top of me. I’m sure there are other large threats that I’m ignoring right now, and I’d give a lot to know what those are honestly.

None of us are immune, and thinking that we are is comforting but insanely dangerous. It’s not the stuff you worry about constantly that’s going to get you… it’s the stuff you have no idea about.

So every chance I get I talk about blind spots. Because people need to be reminded. As often as possible.

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I agree with you. I think anyone has an inescapable humility if they’ve dug into their own beliefs until they get down to the fundamental premises they accept as persuasive for reasons that are in part well-reasoned, but in other parts just come down to personal preference. Like I can’t decide that I believe the moon is made out of cheese. It’s a conviction that emerges from everything I’ve learned and experienced up to this point.

I think a lot of people just don’t care to dig deep into their own perspective, let alone anyone else’s. I know a few people who are much smarter than me, but they’re not reflective and intellectually curious, so it’s easy for me to often feel like they’re idiots. But they aren’t. It’s just that a lot people have zero interest or capacity to think as a philosopher, but that’s cool, because similarly, I have zero interest or capacity for advanced calculus.

What are some of your blind spots?

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If he knew they wouldn’t be blind spots.

I can’t tell if this is a joke :frowning:

You know what your blind spots are when driving, for example. Perhaps we’re using the term differently.

Also a huge lol at Nunn lecturing me about blind spots. Talk about your glass houses.

Then again most people with huge unaddressed blind spots think that they don’t have any (or apparently don’t even know that such a thing exists)… that’s how they got to be huge and unaddressed.

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Yeah I think so. A blind spot you can’t see is like my friend who always gets cranky in restaurants. Although I think he might be aware of it by now.

My guess is it’s because he has a mild stutter and he hates when waiters complete the order for him. So he’s already pre-stressed before he sits down. Then if one thing goes wrong he’s pissed.

Dude has no problem though walking into boardrooms and giving presentations to C-level people at Disney.

Which I think ultimately might be the problem - he’s like “I’m a VP of a medium sized company and you’re looking down on me while taking my order.”

But that’s pure pop psychology. I don’t really know.

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Yeah that’s exactly what I mean when I say blind spot. It’s something that exists that for whatever reason you simply can’t see. Your friend is probably great at walking into pre prepared conversations where he’s had time to think about his lines in advance… but restaurants are hard to prepare for.

I hate ordering in drive thru’s for similar reasons. Somehow I always butcher the order. But I know that it’s a me problem and not the person taking my orders fault. Meanwhile I sell/negotiate/arrange stuff for a living and am super super smooth on the phone when I’m going through the motions of something that I understand every step of at a very deep level.

Your friend is probably suffering from some mild imposter syndrome/insecurity that makes him think that people are looking down on him a lot. I identify with that because I definitely was like that before I had any success… but it dropped a lot since I found some. Now I’m super comfortable having a laugh at my own failures and give myself permission to make minor mistakes without beating myself up too badly… as long as the mistake doesn’t expose me to long tail risks lol. Poker taught me that rare mistakes for 200bb are a huge liability to your overall winrate so my tolerance level for those kinds of things is very low.

Spontaneity is hard lol.

If I had to guess at what my close friends would say is my blind spot - #1 would be that I’m always unhappy about my weight and I should just learn to live with it.

But I just can’t do it. I’ve been relatively skinnny for a few years and it was awesome.

Also if I don’t lose weight from where I’m at now - I’m going to be one of those 60-year-old dudes wearing compression socks and looking like I’ve got about 5 years left before they have to cut off one of my feet.

#2 is probably that I have porn star level looks standards and I’m offering mall cop level physique in return. Which is 100% fair. I wish I could help it but I got screwed up by porn when I was young or something.

But then again my friends might say something completely different.

Imposter syndrome is tough. It can be its own kind of blind spot.

I still catch myself assuming: If Dunning Kreuger victims are easily identified by an enormous arrogance in the face of overwhelming ignorance, the only way to have any kind of confidence in your intelligence is to foster a crippling intellectual insecurity.

That is self-destructive on a whole other level lol

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I wouldn’t say that. I would say that if you haven’t been through that big eye-opening moment yet where you realize you know absolutely nothing about a particular subject - then you probably don’t.

But once you’ve been through that, and you start to actually learn stuff from true experts and claw your way out of the hole - then you can feel a lot safer accurately assessing your level of competence.

Like I’m pretty sure if any of us actually spent one day as a political strategist for a top senator or something - we’d realize we know absolutely nothing about what actually goes on - or the level of depth they look at things. Doesn’t mean they can’t be wrong - but they’re probably wrong for like some 9th-level reason we can’t even fathom - not the obvious one.

Basically I’d bet money when it comes to actual political strategy, we’re like some low-info Trumpfan who thinks those dumb scientists don’t even realize CO2 is only .2 parts per million in the atmosphere.

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See cuck libs! Not just browns!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/10/15/eileen-connors-british-family-ice-vacation-detention/