Election 2022 Hopium Containment Thread

Every R senator who got elected in 2020 would have 6 years to wash away the bloodstains.

And if that really ended Trump, I think 6 yrs would probably do it. GOP just turns to DeSantis and pretends Trump never happened.

I mean Herschel Walker is like -300 to come out in favor of Robert E. Lee day, right?

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https://twitter.com/victorshi2020/status/1591960831784538112?s=46&t=SAE53kkeswxf6T3hWqMF_A

No clue what does to the math. Trying not to swear the minutiae. Certainly it is good.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1591967710782668800

:vince3:

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:vince:

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-150

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Everyone is welcome to thank me for this one. I take full credit.

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I agree. The only Republicans “done with Trump” are the ones that have access to the OpEd pages of the major newspapers and write for the Atlantic, etc. There’s hundreds of them, but millions of “attack Nancy with a hammer” Republicans. Once Donnie Dumb Dumb starts whipping them up its game over for the Done With Trump brigade.

These people thought that they are smart and were the ones using Trump. They think if they all say it at once “Trump is done. Trump lost us the election” that it is going to actually mean something to all the people with Trump flags outside their homes and on their pick up trucks.

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This mornings Hopium. This guy is of the MSW ilk, but he has been pretty good at predicting the vote counts.

He is not giving up on CA-41, AZ-6, and even CO-3. Based on Wasserman and others this seems like pure Hopium.

https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/1592149263353778176?s=46&t=e7RfKk4sthUDMSx-QGGd5Q

Looking at CA41, D had 48.7% with 74% reporting. No significant third party. To get to 50.1% it works out to about 53.9% of the last 26%.

I have no idea what vote is out there but at least it’s not a ridiculous number.

AZ-6 D is at 49.7% with 89% in

Works out to need about 54.5% of the remaining vote. Again not a huge number but I have no idea on the outstanding vote.

CO-3 has been discussed as nauseum

Plus no surprises in his “locks”. I’d think it’s possible one of those misses.

Hopium level about 10-15%.

If its truly just a 1-2 seat majority you could see it flip multiple times during the 2 years, not to mention every person has to be at every vote, pure chaos incoming.

If I’m remembering correctly, it’s a two year appointment unless they resign or die and the makeup of the chamber doesn’t matter.

The important thing to understand about Republicans is they’re much more motivated by hatred of Dems than they are of any forward-looking vision of their party.

Just like the never Trumpers largely fell in line, the always Trumpers will turn out for Desantis or whoever else. A GOP civil war will not have us skate through 2024, although it might cause some damage on the margins.

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Very true, they are much more unified by their racism and homophobia than they are divided by their suits vs. rednecks culture differences.

I do think we’re drawing live to a “will no one rid me of this troublesome governor” moment from Donnie Dumb Dumb if he feels threatened by Ronnie Dumb Dumb’s ambitions. DeSantis may bow out of the 2024 race simply to avoid getting beaten to death by Proud Boys.

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John King on CNN says Dems odds of holding the house are like drawing to an inside straight

I’ll take that

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Inside straight with one card left to come maybe, but yes, I’ll take that too.

FYP

ETA: (But not my pony)