Election 2022 Hopium Containment Thread

There are definitely some right-wing Americans living here. Don’t normally see them around because they’re being miserable alone complaining about things for a living.

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https://twitter.com/merica/status/1591510696139034624

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Hopium-wise, does this correspond to “the raw, straight from the boat”?

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Masto’s gonna win wow didn’t see that one. now is it close enough that’s it ends up a total cluster****

Give Rs a reason to not go hard for Walker.

Trump is going to throw a fit. We will find what fraction are ride or die with Trump. It will be not insignificant.

Warnok walks to 51.

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https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1591258903286669312

Konrake’s R House estimate is down to 219.

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+/- how many?

219 +/- 4, so 1/3 of the range is 215-217.

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1591572930575495169?s=46&t=sMXVzHvz9JQ0sAAMUmOXlw

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I am obviously hoping for D House with the outside chance of codifying Roe at least, but if it’s going to be an R House with 219… five bags of :popcorn:

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I don’t expect D’s to be able to codify Roe if they retain the House, no matter how hard they try.

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Trying to will help them. I’m sure a few Republicans would vote for it in swing districts as well. NY Republicans voting against will mean they lose their seat next election.

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Do the Republicans have a greater than 1% chance of Nevada Senate? It seems inevitable that the Dems will win it.

I don’t think codifying Roe can be put in a reconciliation bill, so it will take 60 votes in the Senate. Pass a bill in the House early on so it can go die in the Senate. Pass another bill late in the term to remind people. Don’t keep holding votes the way Republicans kept banging out those Obamacare repeals.

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Which 8 senators will Republicans allow to vote for it? Maine and Alaska will probably abstain, but that will hurt them in the next cycle. Who else would want to abstain or vote for it for future electionability?

Having Rs filibuster codifying Roe would be a win. This part may be dumb from an overall strategy to get full abortion rights back, but they could also just pass rape and incest exceptions as standalones and see if the Rs would filibuster that too.

Probably right but to be fair you are on record as not wanting to codify Roe.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1591587718202806272

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https://twitter.com/DavidLJarman/status/1591589437372522496

Yeah there’s supposed to be a big Clark County dump that could seal it.