Your edits popping up on my screen in real time. Never noticed that before. 
No idea why they’d assume Warnock will be a huge dog in the runoff.
Ossoff trailed Perdue 1.8% points in the general, and won by 1.2% in the runoff–a 3 point shift in the Dems favor.
Warnock won by 2% in the runoff–it was a jungle primary so there’s no general to compare it to.
So, what drove turnout in the general so that Ossoff trailed by 1.8%? Republicans voting like crazy for Trump, and Dems voting against Trump. Take Trump out of the equation and a 1.8% loss turns into a 1.2% win.
This time Warnock had no help whatsoever. There were a scary number of Kemp/Warnock voters, and Warnock almost certainly helped Abrams, not the other way around. Walker, on the other hand, had Kemp. And he still lost by a point.
How in the word does Walker improve by 1 point, bucking the 2020 general-to-runoff trend to the tune of 4 points? There’s literally no factor that indicates that’s what is going to happen. Every factor indicates this is going to be worse for Walker than the 2020 trend, which is already stacked against him.
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538 had an article on it, and it’s because in 2/3 of the runoffs, the GOP improved relative to the Dem.
https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1590480379009695744
https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1590472386469859328
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Your pony placed. Congrats (we reward ponies itt).
From Houston
Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, considered a rising star among Texas Democrats, overcame a vigorous challenge from a well-funded Republican opponent Tuesday night and barely held on to her seat overseeing the state’s most populous urban county.
Hidalgo faced a steep fundraising disadvantage, attacks tying her to the county’s high number of homicides and a midterm environment generally unfavorable to Democrats to beat Republican Alexandra del Moral Mealer, a West Point graduate and ex-Army captain, to lead the county for another four years — and with a greater Democratic majority on the county’s governing board.
Mealer conceded the race Wednesday morning.
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Jesus, just flip some words around and it sounds like exactly what we say about Dems.
https://twitter.com/kilday_morgan/status/1590428841755172866?s=20&t=_Gbx7lPtnumSZfjcpAzl-g
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This is a more compelling reason than 538’s logic. Their only good point is that Trump mildly discouraged Republicans from voting.
The default counterpoint to the “runoffs help Republicans” axiom 538 relies upon is that college educated voters have flocked to Dems in the last decade, which will certainly reduce the impact of the runoff advantage for Republicans and possibly nullify it completely.
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I really hate to admit it but Tudor Dixon is pretty hot.
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oh god fox news is amazing right now, they’re like “hmmm the voters say 75% think the country is heading in the wrong direction and nearly 60% disapprove of biden…. doesnt make sense…….” and circling around the fact that one of those factors was roe v wade, hahahaha amazing
banner says “Red trickle?”
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Fuck yeah I completely missed that the Michigan legislature also flipped. I did not expect that. Sadly my district did not as the dem didn’t even put up a real campaign and the election denying anti abortion repub actually showed up at my house and was greeted by some covid infested children. It feels like this state house district could be competitive. Maybe I get involved next time?
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something hilarious is happening right now i cant articulate yet, this might be a bigger moment than people think
fox:
“we spent $400 million on these garbage candidates, meanwhile trump is sitting on a massive warchest in mar a lago, whered that money go? who knows”
best case scenario is trump never gets in trouble runs 2024 and infighting between him and desantis wings of the party results in a split vote that leads a barely coherent biden sailing into victory in 2024 lol