Out on bail while appealing conviction, take office, self-pardon. Note ianal.
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lol, weāre all just as confused here as your average joe. Seems like he always wriggles out of these jams but this time itās not clear how.
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Iām actually seeing some kind of a plea rather than a pardon which results in him not running for office. I donāt think his heart is in it this time anyway. Heās only running as a shield from being convicted. I think if he knows he can get away with a plea (even a no-contest plea) to some lesser charge, which avoids jail, then heās taking it. At least that would make sense, which is a good argument for why he wonāt do it. I guess.
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well, heās running because heās a narcissist and it gives him attention and definitely also the part where you really canāt grift harder than running for potus.
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Also why would be plea. He didnāt do anything wrong.
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Evidence is overwhelming but still at least only 50/50 due to lol Florida jury nullification.
Just to nitpick, jury nullification would mean 12/12 jurors agreeing to completely ignore the evidence and declare him not guilty, which I think is unlikely even in lol Florida (although thereās the factor of Cannon ruling every piece of evidence inadmissible or something so they legitimately acquit as a result of what theyāre given). Hung jury due to one or two assholes is much more likely, and then thereās the question of whether the DOJ bothers to try again or just lets it drop at that point.
Anyone know any real independents in 2023?
With the possibility of him winning the election and pardoning himself, none still has to be the favourite.
1/12 to be hung is what I meant. I guess technically not the full definition of nullification but hung does mean not convicted which in MAGA world means INNOCENT and EXONERATED!!!
No. Any independents are plants designed to hurt one side. Most likely stealth for the right. No idea if a Cheney third party run could pull votes away from a MAGA nominee.
Practically these are binary elections. Vote appropriately.
Canāt they request a new judge, which is ruled on by a different judge? It would be insane if Canon is legit the judge for this trial after what happened before with her.
There have been various lawbro opinions about why/how sheāll either have to wind up recusing, or will get bitch-slapped into compliance by higher courts if she pulls any stupid shit, but as usual those need to be taken with like a 20lb grain of salt.
But he canāt pardon himself out of convictions on state charges. Assuming convictions in the two state cases are independent events and UP opinion is a good estimate of the probability of conviction, 0.30+0.29-(.30)(.29)= 0.50.
So 
I think thereās a decent chance she recuses just because she doesnāt need this shitshow in her life. The idea that sheās going to get a Supreme Court gig out of this is fantasy, Trump probably will not be President again, there probably wonāt be a vacancy if he is, and he doesnāt reward people who help him anyway.
Itās one thing to be a Trump slappy, another thing to stake your career on a quixotic attempt to defuse an open-and-shut indictment, for a guy who famously chucks all his allies under the bus at some point. I think sheās an underdog to voluntarily wash her hands of this, but not a big underdog.
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I think any rational judge would do this, and if she doesnāt do it (and I doubt she will because she has already issued an order in the case), it just means sheās in the bag for Trump.
Ironically, if she recuses herself, she does not need to, and if she doesnāt, then she does.
Why would it hurt her career at all? Republicans donāt care about them being good judges. They want them to tow the line and enforce rules for the rich and powerful. Her last go round helping Trump was so outrageous I donāt think anyone will ever consider her a serious judge anyways.
Only reason it might hurt her career is if Republicans badly want Trump to go down and she stands in the way. Other than that I think every Republican nominee from now on will want to nominate judges they know will go to war for them and ignore the actual law.
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Itās kind of like Fox News. If sheās smart, she will hedge her bets. Thereās a reasonable chance Trump isnāt going to survive this (the betting markets are a good leading indicator and heās fallen off there), and she wonāt want to tie herself to him too closely.