What I’m saying is that I was outside the bubble of all tout / projection / news bias and thought I saw some cheeky plays there. Those players certainly werent riding some recent hot wave but were still popular picks. We are so far past the point of sleeper picks being a thing.
yeah i can tell within 5 minutes who will be the most owned stacks and pitchers on any baseball slate. It used to be just the highest implied runs but now its like ‘oh royals are too cheap i’m sure they’ll be chalk’ then look at awesemo’s ownership projections and they are the most ‘over-owned’ team.
I would get zero joy from large field GPP’s. Oh, I didn’t have the Pirates exploding against Corbin Burnes today? Guess I’ll try to scrap and claw to min cash!
Love 10-20 entry private contests vs friends, though. Makes baseball and football season a blast.
True story I used to risk my entire bankroll on NFL Sundays split between about 5 different lineups in cash games (2014-2017). Would also throw those into GPPs and somehow crushed there too. That’s how bad everyone was. Specifically the 4th-5th lineup would be like my 2nd or 3rd favorite guys at every position which would lead to some super low ownerships that would scoop all kinds of top-heavy stuff. That is just never happening again.
A sleeper pick these days is like having Marcus Mariota in that game where Carr died on the first play.
Yesterday showdown game was actually pretty rare with a ton of random touchdowns. Pringles ended as the winning captain on DK
Pringle doesn’t seem crazy to me on DK I guess with PPR; WRs really have a ceiling in that format and are usually ones to target for scoops. I was all-in on Waller CPT in that BAL/LV and didn’t even sniff a high finish. Had to remind myself why I’m wasting more time on this and the answer is obv NFTs.
I think he was 0.8% cpt. Not crazy but def exceptionally low owned
Yeah I would have guessed sprinkling him at 1% CPT or something is about optimal. My theory from upthread is that the field generally isn’t wrong about this b/c wisdom of crowds. Sometimes they are but generally not.
Showdowns are always the funniest sweat. Goff final pass of the night, a garbage time 24 yard pass to a dude called Trinity Benson (his only catch of the game) changed the milly maker from a 10 way chop (each winning 127k) to a 236 way chop.
Those 10 entries went from 127k to a whooping 100 dollars each
Never seen this before but perhaps it’s common…. FD has a couple early baseball slates that lock at 6:10pm, but includes CWS/DET at 1:10pm (it was moved up preemptively from 7:10pm due to weather.)
I assume everything’s going to act logically - i.e., you can play CWS/DET guys but can’t swap them once it has started, and you can enter up until 6:10, but can’t play players from the early game if it already started - and there’s not some weird cheat code where you can swap CWS/DET players up until 6:10pm?
EDIT: Lock was moved up to 1:10pm on the contest…that seems a reasonable way to handle it, but also a little sketch to change lock time on a contest.
Can’t wait for Daniel Jones semi-chalk week
I hate fantasy football and can’t be bothered to make more than one lineup per week anymore. So I just make a “tournament” lineup and enter that into everything. Last week I had 177 (DK) with Daniel Jones.
I’ve been landing on mostly chalk which probably isn’t great but I can’t be bothered to do a ton of research on what touts are pushing people onto. In that sense, it feels like I’m strongly headed toward a fish optimal here this week with a combination of obvious value and players that went off last week. Who you got?
Problem is I love LJax + Andrews here but they revealed their ceilings last week so no one is going to forget about them. The BAL WRs have tough matchups across the board and LAC has been vulnerable to TE (Hollywood Brown is cheap and could still get there though). It’s not clear to me whether this is because good WR coverage is forcing balls to TEs or if their LB / S coverage is weak. Don’t think it matters though because Andrews is good and I don’t see a good reason to fade other than ownership.
One guy I used last week that I hate this week is Toney for NYG. He’s banged up and has a terrible potential matchup here against Jalen Ramsey, but he probably gets a model projection boost with Golladay officially out.
Running LJax means fading Mahomes/Reek/Kelce, so that pushes me toward what I expect to be total chalk in Darrel Williams hoping that he vultures those points. The “problem” with that is if you think of ownership in terms of sets and not individual players, LJax stack + Darrel should be comparatively higher joint ownership. I’d actually estimate that if I was running my 1337 ScRiPtz to generate a zillion lineups but I just don’t care now.
Looks like almost all of my players are > 15% owned so basically any other strategy would have been better than this one.
do you have hunt in flex? pivot to someone else if ur lineup is very chalky
No specifically faded Hunt and flex is filled. I should have a couple single digit guys, just way too many > 20% but maybe there just weren’t that many good options this week. I liked Devontae Booker but switched out of it. Not sure what % he is.
yeah only 10 games and some are mostly unplayable (ind-hou, den-lv). No high end RB looked great so i’m assuming ownership is super high on Hunt, K.Herbert, D.Williams, Booker all very cheap
Ekeler 23, Darrel 17, Taylor 25. Shocked on Taylor thought I was being slightly sneaky running him over Hunt.