COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

Wow, never could have guessed that Keeeed would turn out to be just outright anti-vaxx!

Oh, right, why get a booster to prevent getting covid when you can get covid to prevent getting covid!

This is literally what is presented to the FDA for approval.

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I think these are objectively true statements, but I donā€™t think your assessment of the magnitudes here is necessarily right. The booster may not lower the risk that much, but it still seems plausible (and likely?) that the reduction in risk due to the booster (even in your situation, as someone who is double-vaxed-plus-infection) is larger than the nonzero risks of the booster. Just because the booster risk happens to be nonzero and the reduction in risk as a result of getting the booster happens to be small doesnā€™t mean that the first is larger than the second or should outweigh it.

I think you should get boostered.

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OK I guess Iā€™m mixing up two simultaneous conversations here. I think people generally should get boosters for social responsibility reasons even if their risk from infection is low, but I agree that with a breakthrough infection 4 months ago the value of a booster is uncertain and I donā€™t care if you personally get one or not.

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Itā€™s not.

Youā€™re a fucking liar.

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Youā€™re not mixing up anything. This is classic online bullshit. You start off with some ridiculous statement (in this case defending that trash Atlantic article), then when various things are pointed out itā€™s always ā€œno itā€™s really just a bit differentā€ or thereā€™s this one detail you havenā€™t considered.

Trust me, Iā€™m a master of this game.

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Ascribing some unknowable (!!!) risk of dying to an injection youā€™ve handled just fine TWICE is anti-vaxx.

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Whatā€™s the basis for believing you are good about making assumptions about how diseases and vaccines work?

I mean, heā€™s putting it up against the risk of serious illness or death from omicron, so that hardly seems unfair.

Yeah itā€™s certainly possible that a booster is the right move for me. But the risks seem tiny in either direction so just doing nothing right now seems like a reasonable move. My doctor seemed to agree when I asked him about it a few months ago, heā€™s the one who said maybe weā€™ll do it when they start taking about second booster. But he says heā€™s always trying to keep up on this stuff and will let me know if we should do something else. Iā€™ll definitely talk to him about it with him when I see him again in February.

At least heā€™s honest about it. Credit to him for that. It allows people to objectively credit his other posts on the topic of vaccines. Far more insidious would be to just post a bunch of bullshit questioning the efficacy of vaccines in as misleading a way as possible. Thatā€™s the elite anti-vaxxer move.

Thatā€™s not what Iā€™m doing. Iā€™m saying my breakthrough infection is probably at least somewhat equivalent to a booster and so to me it makes sense to delay it until they start talking about the need for second boosters. Iā€™m not anti vaccine, as you said I got the vaccine twice and will likely get another shot in the future. Strange sort of anti vaxxer.

This didnā€™t age well.

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I donā€™t think thereā€™s been much research on the robustness of immunity from infection and how it interacts with vaccines. That sort of research would be exceedingly difficult to conduct as there would be so many confounding factors. It seems sensible to just ignore it and focus on vaccine trials. As such there really canā€™t be recommendations about how immunity from infection should impact vaccine decision making because there wonā€™t be any relevant studies to really back it up. Having said that, thereā€™s really no question that infection and recovery from covid does confer immunity and I donā€™t see why that shouldnā€™t be a factor in the timing of booster dosage. Iā€™d have done the same thing if I caught covid a few weeks after the first shot. Iā€™d be heavily inclined to delay the second shot, possibly for quite a while.

Things got a little off the rails but knock on wood we seem to have gotten the incivility out of our systems for now.

Iā€™m on team ā€œKeeed should get boosted and his risks from a booster shot are vastly lower than his risks from getting COVID againā€ but heā€™s made it very clear heā€™s not getting boosted based on his personal experience and not because he doesnā€™t want Bill Gates to track him so calling him an anti-vaxxer doesnā€™t seem accurate.

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You really have two choices if youā€™re waiting for some level of certainty.

  1. Assume previous infection doesnā€™t matter with respect to vaccines and boosters until proven otherwise.
  2. Assume that an infection is as good as a shot until proven otherwise.

Why should 2 be the default assumption, as you seem to think?

We have data that vaccination is more effective than past infection:

We also know that getting vaccinated after prior infection further improves immunity:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1468344299184087045

Sorry, but this is wrong. Most anti-vaxxers arenā€™t anti-vax because they think that there are bill gates nanochips in the shot or because aborted fetuses were used to make the vaccine. Theyā€™re anti-vax because of an incorrect and bullshit perception of the health risks of the vaccine. Whether thatā€™s ā€œfertilityā€ or some other unspecified general fear of the ā€œpossible side effects,ā€ that is the most common form of anti-vaxxer. Most anti-vaxxers are just like Keeed. Maybe we should use a less polarizing term like ā€œvaccine hesitant.ā€

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I donā€™t dispute either of these.

Item on Newsnight tonight showed Pfizer efficacy dropping to 60% after 25 weeks, then rising back up to 90% after a booster.

Weā€™ll all need all the boostering we can get because omicron infections are doubling every two days.