COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

This, and an earlier one like it posted by CN.

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This is too good to hide behind a link

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Saw that earlier, and while Iā€™m deeply skeptical of stories like that, they sure sound like a physician.

the only remaining question is are we invading new zealand before australia, or immediately after.

I wish sheā€™d had a seizure reaction to a placebo.

Yeah, thatā€™s kind of where I thought he was going with the story. But then I would have thought it was fake for sure.

iā€™ve definitely seen placebo treated psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (yes, PNES is the abbreviation - try to say it as a word) with saline, but Iā€™m not a fan of that. I just give them benzos.

iā€™m just glad theyā€™re vaccinated.

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yeah, and itā€™s really awful. While this woman is clearly being a manipulative piece of shit, most PNES are people with seizure disorders under some sort of stress. They donā€™t really control it, and they honestly are shaking uncontrollably the vast majority of time.

LikeClockwork odds of getting COVID -950 BOOSTED to -1500.

the numbers are made up, ya dingdongs. I know some of you calculated the real percentages lol

I suffered from something similar to this in college. The neurologist didnā€™t have to give me a placebo, just putting a name to the ā€œticā€ made it go away. The GP I went to first was worried enough to order an MRI.

What I mean is the variation in the genome is essentially random. Mutations occur. Some species do better in the short term with little mutation and have extensive error correction mechanisms during replication and generates variety by recombination (sex, people).RNA Viruses do better in the short term by having much less error correction and geenerate mutants at a high rate.

Then once a new genome arises, it succeeds (propagates) or fails based on its fitness for its environment, plus impact of competition, plus some random chance elements (more spreading Covid mutant forms in a host but that host dies before transmitting it).

So evolution isnā€™t just the end result. Itā€™s not like a biochemical pathway that has been optimized by selection for a specific function like making lipids.

Iā€™m using a very specific definition of process. Evolution is a scoreboard is the best simplest definition Iā€™ve ever heard. Evolution doesnā€™t happen, rather itā€™s what had happened in the past. Based on past patterns we can make predictions of the direction of evolution (eg immune escape) but we donā€™t really know all the factors. We could get more deadly Covid or we could get less morbidity strain dominant.

At the end it comes down to probabilities.

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1466871028026589184

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This is awesome.

The first real world data showing the coronavirus variant Omicron may evade some of our immunity has been reported by scientists in South Africa.

Scientists have detected a surge in the number of people catching Covid multiple times.

It is a rapid analysis and not definitive, but fits with concern about the mutations the variant possesses.

It is also not clear what this means for the protection given by vaccines.

The study, which has not been formally reviewed by other scientists, estimates Omicron could be twice as likely to cause a re-infection than earlier variants.

Prof Juliet Pulliam, from Stellenbosch University and one of the researchers, said: ā€œThese findings suggest that Omicronā€™s selection advantage is at least partially driven by an increased ability to infect previously infected individuals.ā€

However, it is still only one piece of the puzzle.

There are questions about how much waning immunity is a factor and the extent to which any variant would be able to take off now.

In addition, this was a rapid analysis and more data will come with time. The high burden of HIV, which suppresses the immune system, in the country also makes it harder to interpret the findings for the rest of the world.

Omicronā€™s R number estimated at greater than 6

Holy shit.

ā€œWe know currently that the virus is transmissible. According to the scientists, the R value is 6.3, I think.ā€
Think we should wait a bit on this one.

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If this is actually true does this effectively mean we are all getting it at some point? No way to suppress it?

Only if you also assume that omicron reduces vaccine efficacy against infection to 0 percent which seemsā€¦ unlikely.

The article states that delta is 5 so itā€™s not as bad as first seems.

Does that mean itā€™s expected to out compete delta?