Dummies don’t know that the testing is how the microchips get implanted.
1 Like
We have seen all this before, but here is an official statement from the Aussie group.
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1440684596450902020?s=21
Sometimes I wonder if there are some that use anti-vax sentiments as a cover for simply being afraid of getting a shot.
Also, I had my first covid test on Monday. It was negative. But I’m positive (though not proven by a test) for a head cold. Seems like its been two years since I’ve had one. Not sure how I caught this one, except that I will admit, I am not perfect about my mask-wearing, and I guess it just takes the right slip-up to make you vulnerable.
I hate being sick so much. That alone was enough motivation to make getting vaxxed a no-brainer for me. I hate the snottyness, and that period when you’re not sure if your cold is getting better or getting worse. Plus, since we all just live in the moment, I often ask myself “am I ever going to feel well, again?” Even though I know the answer is yes, I also know I don’t feel great right now, and I hate that.
3 Likes
The plot thickens! I just got an email from the school saying that two of the three positive surveillance tests got follow-up PCR tests that came back negative (third kid declined to do a follow-up test), but they also got a report of a positive test from a fourth kid who wasn’t at school Monday.
The most likely explanation here is that all four kids are sick, right?
After a negative PCR test?
That’s why it’s a question, but I was under the vague impression that the false-positive rates for all of these tests were really low. And if one kid definitely has it, the prior probability for everyone else having it goes way up.
False positives for antibody tests should be much higher than PCR false negatives, I think.
1 Like
For those worried about the emergence of new variants, there’s no evidence they’re gaining a foothold in the US. Even though they’re being found, they’re being overwhelmingly outcompeted by Delta.
It’s almost all Delta, everywhere.
2 Likes
The devil you know, I guess…
I’d been meaning to ask.
What does “outcompeted” mean in terms of variants.
Surely the only competition is if people become immune. An effect which is fairly small until herd immunity is reached.
Wouldn’t each variant just basically run at their own exponential curve based on their own R?
1 Like
Outcompeting just means becoming the dominant strain, I would assume.
To expand on this. Two charts.
The one in your link.
This is based on % though, not total numbers, so it looks like all the other variants are going down, and they are, but relatively.
But over this same period in the US. Cases have gone up by almost 15 times.
So even if other variants are growing exponentially at a lower R, you would still get a chart that looks the same as the top one.
If there is a strain that propagates better in vaxxed people but not as fast in the unvaxxed it probably wont show up in the stats unless it was highly effective at infecting the vaxxed.
Right now R seems to be <<1 in vaxxed people, so a strain really needs to be different to succeed that way. It essentially gets blocked by Delta infections in the unvaxxed.
Are we sure the R is less than 1 for vaxxed people?
I dont I have seen doctors make the case that it probably is greater than 1 and I dont know if I see evidence that we can keep the R<1 without mitigation measures even with 100% vaxxed. Just curious what you are seeing or if you have numbers that drive you to that conclusion. Even the high vaxxed areas had pretty large waves when we reduced mitigation, think its reasonably likely we should be masking and mitigating until they can approve a nasal vax.
Gonna need a cite for that.
https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1422595200615133189
Sure. Posted it before, but here is one example. There are plenty of others if you search twitter. I think she’s a bit pessimistic, but I also havent really seen a clear cut case that R<1 for 100% vaxxed without mitigation. Even heavily vaxxed places saw massive spikes, Israel went to boosters, most places that went to normalcy had to pull back, etc
But use 98% vaxxed or w/e numbers is a “realistic” (its not) best case for vaxxed and I dont think she gets it below 1 (especially with no boosters given what we are seeing for transmission reduction data in the vaccinated). Hence her conclusion that we are wearing masks and mitigating indefinitely
If you have a Wapo sub this probably more concise, she has 100% vax R0 of 1.2
Blocked by delta in the unvaxxed how?
my brother in law got pozzed (rapid test today). I was at dinner with him at my mother’s house on Sunday. everyone in my house is fully vaxxed, he and my sister are but they have six-year-old twins who aren’t.
I didn’t sit next to him at dinner (actually I don’t even think I ate in the same room with him), what’s my play?
oh, and for extra fun I am leaving on a trip for work on Sunday night.