No. If those 100 million people weren’t vaccinated, there is a certain number of them who would get seriously sick and/or die from
Covid over, say, a six month period. That number is probably significantly below 1%.
If we take that same group and vaccinate them, reduce that serious illness/death number (already under 1%) by 95%.
There’s almost certainly a larger variance between people who get the same vaccine than there is between the difference between the average effects of the two.
Yes, I would consider it annoying to be forced to wear masks for the indefinite future. For essential places that I am inside for a limited period of time (i.e. a grocery store or pharmacy or whatever) I don’t really care.
For places like a gym, indoor stadium, bowling alley where I am going to be inside for a long time and/or exercising I do care. Especially when the reasoning is ???. I wouldn’t be down for COVID restrictions forever even if we never developed a vaccine.
We wouldnt have to have indefinite restrictions. We could just lock down hard for 8-12 weeks and go for elimination then return to life mostly as normal with restrictions on travel.
You can really see the vaccine starting to reduce the number of cases in NYC from late March onwards. The 7-day average of new cases fell from 4,205 on March 26 to 1,163 on May 3.
Restrictions on travel are restrictions! And pretty serious ones!
Also there is never going to be a hard lockdown in the US and there is never even going to be the level of restrictions we saw last March/April so this just reads like a coma fantasy.
Yeah I dont think there are going to be either. The cost/benefit becomes less clear with vaccines, especially given the likely lack of government support to accompany it. Travel restrictions are a restriction on freedom, agreed. Those are both reasons we should be cautious about ending the mask mandate. Because public health doesnt really work like “well, its been a long time and we are tired so restrictions are ending”. That approach just kills a lot of people and cripples the economy. The bar in the US for more restrictions is high, but there is a level and Id prefer not to reach it. So given the outbreaks we are seeing worldwide, even in heavily vaccinated places, keeping a low cost NPI like masks in place seems prudent.
I think “we are tired of this and it’s not working so restrictions are ending” is a perfectly valid approach to be perfectly honest. If you don’t want to do that then the next approach is forced vaccination. Indefinite COVID restrictions is worse than both.
Also, the amount of deaths that COVID is ever going to be able to cause in the USA from this point forward is not enough to cripple the economy, see last year’s death numbers and current economy.