I suspect the same but I’m not as optimistic as you wrt the result. I’m pretty shook by the NYT article talking about how we won’t reach herd immunity anytime soon.
Its sort of more likely the well off places do make these adjustments, the less well-off places dont, and then we just kind of roll with it and lol adjustments. The schools in my town all have already redone ventilation. The schools in poorer communities got a fan in the window.
Widespread vaccination of adults is a game changer. Id have a hard time arguing schools should be closed in the fall barring real changes in vaccine efficacy (they should have been closed last fall and winter IMO with the plan of opening over the summer, but LOL at America doing that). We probably should hold off on a lot of extracurricular activities and keep other protective measures in place for the '21-'22 school year.
We also have to address how we make up for the lost learning from COVID. Would be nice if there was some plan and resources put into this, but more likely this generation just SOL and loses a year of learning and up to the families to make up the gap.
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Covid gonna be flying around the world bigly for the next two years. I assume there will probably be significant pockets of herd immunity in the US. Areas with low vax uptake will suffer, as is their decision. Just like with medicaid expansion.
The damage has kind of been done at this point now that vaccines are rolling out, we’re mostly argle-bargling about what we should have been doing months ago.
I think their Table S11 (you have to go to supplemental materials for this) actually demonstrates exactly how hard it is to control for these things. And before anyone gets defensive, this problem is as much an issue for the “schools can be opened safely” interpretation as it is for the opposite.
Here’s Table S11:
What’s striking is how much the individual discretionary risky activities line up with the number of school mitigation levels. Here’s a more readable summary:
It’s clear that there’s a strong correlation between individual risk-taking and the extent of mitigation measures. So it’s extraordinarily difficult to distinguish the effect of those individual risk-taking activities from the effect of the mitigation measures. They’ve included these particular variables, but there’s no way these variables capture the full extent of risk-taking activities that individuals are engaging in.
So while I agree with the general takeaway that mitigation measures have a causal effect on COVID transmission, I definitely am not willing to draw the line at 6 or 7 or 9 being a precise measure of how many or which mitigation measures get to a baseline level of risk.
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https://twitter.com/arstechnica/status/1389610341001216001?s=19
“Brazil rejects Sputnik V vaccine, says it’s tainted with replicating cold virus”
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Unreal the US still hasn’t managed OFS throughout the pandemic.
UK has had 3 lockdowns to date
Lockdown 1 - old covid - 25% school attendance from key worker kids - wide defintiion of key worker
Lockdown 2 - old covid - 50% school attendence from key worker kids - wide defintiion of key worker
Lockdown 3 - new covid - 25% school attendence from key worker kids - narrow defintiion of key worker
Rest of the year 100% OFS. Ditto Europe.
Old covid - all the evidence from these countries showed kids were 50% as good at speading
New covid - all the evidence showed these kids were about as good as an adult at spreading
Old covid - Parents of in school kids aint dying at a higher rate when compared to the population. Kids ain’t dying so why deprive them.
New covid - Parents of in school kids aint dying at a higher rate when compared to the population. Kids ain’t dying so why deprive them.
US - Can’t send them back to school when rates are increasing
Also US - Can’t send them back to school when rates are plummemting and anyone who wants the vaccine’s had it
UK have no intention of ever vaccinating under 12’s FWIW
This isnt completely accurate. Most/all US schools are open now, at least for kids younger than high school, and many US schools were open all year (with red states generally open sooner). But see that lockdown 1, lockdown 2, lockdown 3 part? Yeah, we didnt do that. Also mitigation widely varied.
Also we wont be to everyone who wants the vaccine has been vaccinated for another 4-6 weeks. By then school is out for the year. Barring real bad news on the vaccine escape front, schools are all going to be open in the fall.
Whats the idea behind not vaccinating U12 ever? Is that being done through the lens of that endemic virus article posted earlier, that ideally vaccines should prevent pathology but not virus spread? Seems pretty risky to not do that ever given we dont really know the long-term effects of the virus.
Im still waiting on round 2, but okay.
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2.4 million vaccines per day last week. Simply not true.
Your description of the situation is completely haphazard at best.
When the dust settles and we look back at which countries did a better job with the COVID-19 pandemic, what metrics do you think we should use to evaluate the results? Is death per capita the best way?
We wait 12 weeks between doses over here (and still OFS)
Vaccinated usually developing antibodies by day 14 after 1st dose as I’m sure ya know
Least fucked up kids could be one - harder to measure though
Short term - probably deaths per capita, based on excess deaths not dodgy catagorising of deaths
Long term - 10 years - I guess those countries that manage to ‘eradicate’ covid by way of high vaccination rates and population that continue with some distancing measures.
will rephrase to anyone over 16yr (or 18yr?.. dunno, we’re still on 40yr olds here) who wants it, can have it
I know. Your takes are nonsense.
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It’s time to bust out tax credits for corporations who start enforcing covid policies. Force the anti-vaxers to get weekly tests, like Wynn is doing.
Yeah that’s a dumb as dumb gets take by the poll aggregator.
It’s not how any of this works and we are still working through this and their are a lot of unknowns. Plus if you possess any empathy for humans your calculations are different.
Aggregate that poll boy.
You would be ok attending a backyard barbecue with 10 people. Occasional indoor trips for the bathroom or cooking.
- Unsafe
- OK with masks and vaccines required
- OK with masks required and you are vaccinated, others aren’t
- OK with you vaccinated, masks optional/uncommon
- OK with masks, you are not vaccinated
- YOLO
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Any kids attending???