COVID-19: Chapter 8 - Ongoing source of viral information, and a little fun

The kids will save us.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1389399821182771210

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https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1389572731612565510?s=19

OK, the paper you’re currently mindlessly shitting on says exactly the opposite, but whatever, I’m done with this.

In other news, the new COVID is probably going endemic, which was always the most likely outcome, I think. gjge, everyone.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741

If frequent boosting of immunity by ongoing virus circulation is required to maintain protection from pathology, then it may be best for the vaccine to mimic natural immunity insofar as preventing pathology without blocking ongoing virus circulation

This seems like a new thought, or perhaps Im just too dumb to have understood this before.

Biden won 26 states (including DC).

22 of them are above the best Trump state.

First red state is South Dakota in 23rd place.

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Just realized that Michael Lewis has a new book out on the Pandemic. Pretty excited.

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I advocate all children respond in a similar manner.

I would say to Tucker, but let us be serious that coward is approaching NOBODY in public to negatively comment to them, even small children.

Because you didn’t go about it very well my dude. You were baselessly accusing the cdc of bias iirc.

oooff harsh judgement from the thread captain. Sorry Johnny, try again!

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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1389542826464088071?s=19

You went off about 3 v 6 feet with masks on guideline about schools, again, iirc. You can feel free to correct that if you want, I don’t find this particularly interesting

This is a pretty extreme misinterpretation of the paper you posted! The authors’ conclusion was that the association between increased COVID risk and schooling disappeared entirely around 7 mitigation measures. At some level of caution above that, school is actually protective against COVID, perhaps because a well-controlled environment is safer than whatever ad hoc child care arrangements people make without a safe place to send their kids. Against that benchmark, how did schools do in the real world? 6.7 mitigations, or 95.7%. To put it another way, if the only thing in the world that mattered was minimizing COVID infections, the average school is very close to the point where you’re indifferent to keeping it open or closing it.

But in fact, public schooling is perhaps the most vital social service for working families. Unless you place a pathologically low-value on the well-being of children, it was almost certainly the right call for most of the schools that actually did open to be open.

The real tragedy of our actual response is in these maps:

The authors helpfully aligned the colors so that blue means safe and closed and red means unsafe and open. With the honorable exception of New England, there’s a really strong negative correlation between schools being safe and schools being open. The schools that have no business being open are open and the schools that have no business being closed are closed. The Polarization of Everything has somehow divided people into the camps of “Take no measures against COVID to prove how much we value schools and are tough!” vs “Close schools forever to show how serious we are about COVID!” People are blinded to the centrist wisdom of treating both schools and COVID control as vitally important priorities to safeguard.

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And that assertion wasn’t backed by much. You asked why you got blowback for the stuff you said. That’s why.

Umm, can we consult the will of the people first?

Should CaffeineNeeded expound on this in detail?
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It is, in fact, 100% accurate.

The rest of your post is nonsense. No one is surprised that it is possible to keep schools open in some way. That was always the objection to the previous studies brought up, most notably ITT was that Wisconsin pre-school study. The question always was what would happen in the real world if you opened schools. Turns out the answer was spread covid at all grade levels.

Follow a series largely based on working as an em physician in rural Canada. The system there is pretty fascinating.

Keep reading! The average open school seems to be pretty safe, but there are a lot of schools that are completely YOLO that are driving the overall effect size. There’s also this perverse selection bias where the least safe schools are all open, while schools run by more cautious people were more likely to be closed. In other words, the marginal school is very likely neutral at worst, or maybe even safer than the alternatives.

This chart is probably a better one to think about:

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Your snapshot is for the subset of schools featuring full-time in person schooling, and there is an increased risk of COVID for adults in households with a child in full-time school. But right next to that (ignored by you) is the same picture for adults in households with a child in part-time in-person school:

where it’s much less obvious that there’s a higher risk for adults living with a kid in part-time school. Considering that 46% of their respondents with a child in school reported that they had a child in part-time school, it seems reasonable to say that part-time school (and other mitigation measures) are achievable/achieved for a large portion of schools in the country.

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Yes. If schools take adequate precautions (which they aren’t, on average), they will spread COVID at a rate that mirrors the community and teachers get sick at about the same rate office workers do.

This is miles away from the “kids won’t spread it” hot takes we’ve been hearing for months ITT.

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