Agreed that this is where the logic breaks down, although recent headlines seem to indicate immunity from mild/asymptomatic cases could be well under 90%.
Anecdotes like a family of 5 vaccinated people all catching Covid are also concerning, but obviously those are just anecdotes.
Are these data since the beginning of the pandemic? If so, then the results would probably be ~90% of confirmed cases are unvaxxed even if the vaccines were 0% effective (since perhaps 90% of all Covid cases occurred prior to mass vaccination). But Iām on a cell phone without much connection so itās hard for me to study it carefully.
If itās a study of each geography over a fixed, recent time period, then it could be valid.
Also, if vaccinated cases tend to be disproportionately mild or asymptomatic, but can still spread the virus effectively, then we should account for the fact that they are less likely to be confirmed than unvaccinated cases.
So far the virus has shown us that the evolutionary pressure is toward higher titers, higher R, broader age range of severe infection. Unless something changes it will continue to evolve in the same direction
Mutation is random, the competitive environment (āselectionā) is not random. We have a large unvaxxed pool of younger people. That is the easiest place for the virus to replicate. Itās not hard to foresee the continued direction.
Once the youngsters get vaxxed, if there is still significant opportunity (lots of spread combined with lots of opportunities for selection) we might see it really go towards getting around the immune system. Remember, even if the US does a good job, we live in a global society with lots of mixing (which will only go up with time as the first world gets higher vaxxed rates). So vaxxed people from high vax backgrounds going to places of high spread will select for immune evading strains.
So yeah, eventually everyone gets it AND everyone gets multiple boosters before maybe we are done or at least at stalemate with this thing.
It is possible that eventually we get a divergent enough immune protection that it becomes very difficult for evading mutants.
But given the current state of things Iām pulling 2025 out of my butt. Till then itās a cycle of masks and boosters and lol society being able to deal with that so yeah reallly 2028 until it kills off all the morons.
(So really the selection on humanity is healthy/informed/rich vs unhealthy/misinformed/poor)
That is true when infection and lethality are closely associated in time (1918 flu).
This thing has lots of opportunity to spread without causing significant disease on a relative basis already. So far the faster spread has correlated with more disease (especially in healthier/younger people).
WOO HOO TEAM MODERNA
Amazing given that in 1736 āinoculationā by smallpox carried a 2 percent mortality rate, but was still definitely the scientifically correct decision.
Is there a dead pool that I can gambool my life savings on for this guy?
Would hope at some point we exit the cycle of masks and just make wearing masks inside a mandate for the duration (until WHO declares pandemic over) but lol sweet summer child.
No, theyāre from the point when states started tracking break-through cases. This varies by state (and some states arenāt included because they donāt report it at all), but for most of them, itās some time in January 2021 through some time in July 2021. The earliest is NJ, which starts 12/15/20. So you still have very different balances of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in each state and over time, but it seems like a reasonable first cut.
Yes, this is what I had in mind when I made the point that the unvaccinated could be more likely to be tested than the vaccinated, so the true proportion of vaccinated cases is relatively higher.
Come on down!
https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1425079135584534564?s=21
In a shocking twist, heās not a fat old white guy. Haha just kidding heās absolutely a fat old white guy.
Buh
Lets see what old Marc has to say about the vaccine and covid:
https://twitter.com/MarcBernierShow/status/1421072368529780740
https://twitter.com/MarcBernierShow/status/1417598690924142595
Some has to explain to me why they frequently spell
like this.