Not that bad. We settle in at 30,000 cases per day with 0.1% ifr. Works out to 10k deaths per year.
I’m hoping that a variant that is nastier (younger demo?) is met with increased compliance. So maybe worse case is a spike to a 50k/year deaths.
Say starting about a year from now.
Do you think public health just too libertarian worldwide? This isn’t really a US public health take, none of the public health insurance experts are advocating a forced vaccination plan.
The US doesn’t even have a vaccine problem yet. We are going to have a vacccine demand issue, and it is part of the larger problem of not wanting to do the hard work needed to control the virus, but the problem with the US response to date is managing to hospital capacity and tolerating an absurd amount of community spread almost nowhere else in the world tolerates.
Vaccines best used to prevent outbreaks not to get from current case counts to low case counts.
I just assume this is escapist fantasy, there’s no way in hell the govt is going to start forcibly vaccinating people. We already have people threatening to murder Big Gretch and picketing outside peoples houses with assault rifles because of the US’s halfasssd lockdowns, these people are going to shoot up pharmacies if the US went full mandatory vaxx.
I’ve been feeling gloomy and am just a moron on the Internet, but I’m thinking 50k deaths per year, 30k cases a day forever. Zero lockdowns or any restrictions, just toss the bodies into the furnace to fuel the machine.
I mean, the deaths will go down once it stops being novel and becomes one of the many normal coronaviruses that go around every year.
I want vaccine passports to be on the table and I want that to be handled by government rather than private industry, regardless of libertarian arguments against it. If I advocate for forced vaccination, then people will know it’s pointless to try and change my mind on the much milder idea of vaccine passports.
For me it was worse on the first shot. I slept for 12 hours a night for three straight days. Still felt pretty bad the second shot but not as bad as the first.
The elderly are overwhelmingly getting vaccinated, so it won’t be anything close to that bad. And even the unvaccinated who recover from covid will get some level of immunity, even if it’s imperfect. Which should lead to less severe infections in the future for people who are re-infected.
I agree with you there. If we go the vaccine passport route I want it to be handled by the government.
Far, far better to distribute the vaccine in a shambolic, haphazard way that channels it into the arms of the predominantly white and wealthy folks who have the patience and the skill to navigate seven different online systems and the flexibility and wealth to drive an hour to get a shot in a different town or state, while the poor and the people of color who have borne the brunt of this epidemic lag behind in access to the vaccine. That’s just good allyship 101. And if you feel a twinge of conscience, just make up a racist caricature about how black people don’t even want the vaccine because of Tuskegee. Honor their untreated syphilis with unprevented COVID and always, always remember to check your privilege.
It’s still there, right where you left it.
https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1382194453289578497?s=20
Boy that seems like a pretty bold assertion.
USA#1
I don’t understand how the same thing could not have been accomplished simply with updated guidelines for clinicians.
https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1382194452492648451
everyone i know in their 30s got hit hard by that 2nd dose. older folks barely felt it
If you’re in the PMC or above. 
Not even mad tbh just jealous of the way everything seems to go so smoothly if you’re a certain income bracket.
I agree with you. We arent doing a great job with vaccine equity. It goes towards the US wanting to just roll out vaccines and not wanting to the hard work needed to control COVID. I dont think forced vaccination is the way to improve that.
I certainly didnt intend to say that “black people dont want the vaccine because of Tuskagee”, and definitely not as a defense of the inequities of the vaccine rollout, so I apologize if it came across that way. There are definitely individual minorities who are hesitant about the vaccine, in part because of US history, and Id rather get the them access to the vaccine and use outreach and education from trusted community members to try and get them vaccinated rather than try and do it with the threat of jail time.
Some of the moderate symptoms, some of the severe ones. The severe ones lasted about a day but a couple of the moderate ones hung around for a couple more.
Chapter 8 - Death and Vaxes (denial)