COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

Competent dem governor? WA state?

He is also realistic, which is nice. Stretch goal
Of 15-20 percent of Americans vaccinated by about May 1st.

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1300 well-monitored trial participants…(source is further upthread so I won’t post again)

As the trial grew, it was clear that Oxford’s small manufacturing facility would not be able to keep up with demand. The team decided to outsource some of the manufacturing to Italy. But when the first batch was ready, there was a snag - the Europe-wide lockdown meant there were no flights to airlift it from Rome.

“Eventually we chartered a plane to bring 500 doses of vaccine because it was the only way we could get it here in time,” says Green.

This is a really important part of the story which ended up being highly significant months later.

The Italian manufacturers used a different technique to Oxford to check the concentration of the vaccine - effectively how many viral particles are floating in each dose. When the Oxford scientists used their method, it appeared that the Italian vaccine was double strength. What to do? Calls were made to the medical regulators. It was agreed that volunteers should be given a half measure of the vaccine, on the basis that it was likely to equate to something more like a regular dose. This was partly a safety issue - they preferred to give them too little rather than too much.

But after a week, the scientists became aware that something unusual was going on. The volunteers were getting none of the usual side-effects - such as sore arms or fever. About 1,300 volunteers had only received a half-dose of the vaccine, rather than a full one. The independent regulators said the trial should continue and that the half-dose group could remain in the study.

The Oxford team bristle at any suggestion that there was a mistake, error, call it what you will. Perhaps the most accurate characterisation is that the volunteers were inadvertently given a lower dose. In months to come, they would be the stellar group in terms of vaccine efficacy.

Can the vaccinated still transmit covid?

Unlike other vaccines being trialled, the Oxford team had been taking weekly swabs from all volunteers to check whether they were infected but showing no symptoms. If the vaccine could prevent silent transmission it could stop them from unwittingly passing on the virus. “That’s a big deal. Because that means the virus could be stopped in its tracks,” says Pollard.

Intriguingly, when the trial results came out, there were indications it may partly suppress transmission of the virus. But more evidence is needed.

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"Learn some history people …

  1. George Washington wasn’t a Founding Father

  2. George Washington was a leader of Antifa

So I am not at all interested in what that crazy radical liberal did."

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The hypothesis that the fast-spreading UK variant of the Covid-19 virus has a transmission advantage has been bolstered by an analysis that suggests it is linked to higher loads of the virus in respiratory samples.

The variant, named B117, was discovered during an investigation into why coronavirus cases in Kent continued to rise during the November lockdown. Scientists found it continued to spread during the restrictions while older variants declined.

Some of the lighthouse laboratories created in April to boost Covid-19 testing capacity in places such as London and Manchester were beginning to see evidence of the new variant in respiratory samples when the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium sounded the alarm about B117 and its transmission advantage.

Dr Michael Kidd, of the PHE Public Health Laboratory in Birmingham, and his team analysed a total of 641 samples based on tests from symptomatic patients and found evidence of B117 among other variants. About 35% of patients infected by B117 had high levels of the virus in their samples, compared with 10% of patients without the variant, they said in their still-to-be-peer reviewed study.

“It does seem as though the patients with this variant have higher viral loads – then the obvious thing is it is easier for them to spread it to other people,” Kidd said, cautioning that the data was preliminary and more evidence needed to be collected before firm conclusions could be drawn.

Scientists say they have high confidence that B117 has a transmission advantage – a modelling study by London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine researchers has estimated it is about 56% more transmissible than previous variants.

A plethora of factors could explain why it is more transmissible. If the variant is more infectious, then fewer virus particles are needed in the host to pass the pathogen on. The virus might also replicate faster in the airways, or make people infectious for longer, making them more likely to transmit the virus.

“Exactly how it [the variant] reaches a high viral load is another big question,” said Kidd, adding that laboratory-based confirmation is required to understand the biological basis of the transmission advantage.

“Like pieces in a jigsaw we need other evidence and I think the importance of this study is – although it’s preliminary and needs repeating – it does offer a sort of on the ground explanation of why this virus may have the ability to spread more easily – because patients are more infectious.”

Early data suggests the UK variant does not make people sicker or increase the likelihood of reinfection or death. But a higher rate of transmissibility without strict controls could still lead to more death.

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I would say that he has definitely been incorrectly categorized. People who are spending 8-12 hour workdays in close contact with others (food plant workers, factory workers etc) should be prioritized over a psychiatrist (I believe that is his profession) who is doing in person 1 on 1 meetings.

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Vaccination data from New York not looking great.

Turns out they already took care of the hospitals and today was basically open to anyone classified as a healthcare professional. So there’s no way I took an ER doc’s spot but it’s possible that (assuming they used all offered doses) I may have sniped one from a private practice physician or something. Not perfect, but not as bad as I thought.

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Seems that the US is on par with other countries in some areas.

6.6% of the Czech Republic population has already tested positive for covid, or 701,622 people.

That’s akin to 21,621,816 people in America. In the past that’d be a lot more than America but America is at 19,600,000. So maybe it’s not that worse.

1.6% of people who contracted covid19 in the CR have died. 1.7% in America.

That said, I suspect that a lot of those excess deaths in America are covid related. So far the CR hasn’t had issues with hospital capacity or inadequate resources (though they had some with manpower early on) whereas America still has issues with lack of resources.

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Didn’t expect this… dad just texted that he and mom got the Moderna shot in Florida today. Apparently DeSantis came for a photo op, and a few hundred in the community were able to get it. (Not sure how they signed up or how it was allocated, since there are thousands in the community). Second dose in 4 weeks.

Have not seen them live, indoors since March. Saw dad once, outside, for 9 holes of golf. Hopefully this thing is the real deal.

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I hope they all get Covid and die without infecting anyone else.

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Yeah it was a pretty questionable take on my part but I bet political hypocrisy was alive and well back then too.

I don’t think you took anyone’s spot in your group unless there is someone who showed up and was denied one. Any idea if that happened.

At least 21 days between the 2 doses but we’ll make it 3 months so we can give the impression more people are getting covered - meanwhile those in the first group, (80+, care home workers and medical staff with high risk factors), are risking another 2 months+ unnecessarily.

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Holiday backlog looks to be coming in strong today. 4k deaths is definitely possible.

Looks like they’re going for two full doses up to 12 weeks apart of the Oxford/AZ vaccine which everyone knows benefits from a half dose followed by a full dose.

Also they’ve failed to do the obvious and give the much higher efficacy Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to those most at risk, and the lower efficacy Oxford/AZ vaccine to lower risk groups.

Classic Hancock.

I’m having some very dark thoughts about what I’d like to see happen to most of the cabinet, but suffice to say it involves some scaffolding, a very sharp fast-moving blade and a bucket.

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It’s a fundamentally imperfect system, and you’re not going to make it any better or worse by getting or not getting the shot at approximately your turn. Don’t sweat being a few hundred places in line earlier than you “should.” Getting it helps everyone, not just you.

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67 thousand out of 8.5 million in 2 weeks?

Sweet, should only take 5 years at this rate

Is the lower efficacy percent due to (1) everybody receiving the vaccine is “less immunized” or (2) while a large percent of people receiving the vaccine are “fully immunized” a significant percentage are not immunized at all? Hope that question makes sense.

I don’t think this is “known”. They did observe it, but it was in a smaller group and that group had a unique characteristic (they were all under 55). I don’t know if they did subgroup analysis vs the under 55s who were in the other group. But even if they saw a difference there, defining subgroups after the fact is considered bad form for reasons which I don’t have the desire to expound upon.

To know this for sure, they would have to look at it in a prospective manner with a large enough number of people to demonstrate statistical significance. My guess (and it’s only a guess) is that they apparent advantage of half/full would likely disappear if they did this. It just doesn’t seem to make sense and I have not heard of other examples of immunity to anything else behaving in this way.

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