COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

I had this from Pfizer, thought it was unrelated. But on second thought it’s probably swollen lymph node.

I’m pretty sure the cdc is aware of a study that they did.

Note mask use became part of their definition of a high risk contact.

Why you’re being so aggressive towards me is befuddling. You’re out of your depth.

Gonna be a lot of this kind of thing over the next 60 days.

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1381666189722722309?s=20

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00875

This was referenced in the footnotes of CDC guidance and looked like at least somewhat of an attempt to try and assess risk using real world conditions. Looked like many of the footnotes were modeling related. This at least tried to examine in the real world with a longitudinal study.

Nothing in the CDC guidance really making me change anything with hand washing or wiping things tbh. It is fairly minimal effort and low risk isn’t zero risk. What to do with schools and businesses is a different story, but effort probably better spent on ventilation if we have to force rank where to spend time and treasure.

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Because I’m not your research assistant and this finding fits perfectly with my medical education.

I didn’t read everything referenced in the guidance, but based on what I linked neither would I.

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Yeah. I had some goofy pain on the back of my shoulder.

Thankfully, everything’s back to normal. Just need to get my sleep schedule back to normal. Pretty shitty three days though.

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Have sat on the sidelines on the smear debate.

Wading cautiously in

Washing your hands is a good idea. Early covid levels of washing and wiping is very very likely overkill. Don’t be fooled by hygiene porn. Carry your own wipes/sanitizer.

If you aren’t vaxxed and their is covid incidence in your locale, then unmasked 3 and 6 feet are both unsafe. Probably further. If you are masked both are probably relatively safe but don’t be stupid. Stay out of crowds and if you run into a store make it brief at low population times.

If you are vaxxed all are probably safe but wear your damn mask as long as their is community spread. Don’t give the morons an excuse not to wear theirs. Help keep incidence as low as possible. Starve the variants of bodies.

If you have a cold or flu then stay home but wear a damn mask if you must go out.

No reason to go second level here. Stick with the obvious.

That’s my PSA.

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Because I’m not intimately familiar with how the cdc would come to such a finding and it would require substantial legwork to go into it. I have no reason to not trust this finding.

That’s what I’ve been wondering this whole time.

No. Dose*time is an issue. Compliance is an issue. Most places eating is an issue. Many places ventilation is an issue.

Masks are a back-up plan when close contact is unavoidable. Apparently the definition of “unavoidable” is under debate.

To me it makes no sense without considering the community infection level.

<1 in 10,000 currently infected. Ok
More than 1 in 1,000? Not Ok.

In between is less obvious to me. Factors: Rising vs declining, teachers and olds are vaxxed. Presence of worrisome variants.

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Well, you’d think that multiple educated people telling you that this makes sense would be reassuring, instead you’re telling them to go away. How about you dig into the base of the CDCs report on smear transmission instead of misusing newspaper reports of their own studies and report back?

Iirc cdcs school recs come with community infection levels.

No one is listening anyways

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Johnny, it’s perfectly plausible that 3 feet is enough for kids but not adults. We have plenty of evidence that kids tend to be less contagious than adults. That doesn’t mean transmission at 6’ never occurs.

No, seriously. You’ve been rageposting for two solid weeks about the CDC’s smear transmission guidelines and I can’t even figure out what you’re mad about. afaict “It’s low-risk but you should still wash your hands and disinfect surfaces” seems pretty non-controversial and mostly in line with what everyone’s been saying for a year or so.

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Is this a matter where you are ever willing to respectfully disagree? I have no wish to debate you on the particulars, but I want to talk about the parameters for decision-making.

You seem to insist on absolute certainty as a standard. That seems impossible to reach. You might only feel safe if COVID goes the way of smallpox and I’m not sure everyone being as strict as you could ever accomplish that.

If you could be 100% certain that the risk of contracting COVID-19 from a contaminated surface was less than 1 in 10,000, would the loosening of CDC guidelines be justified? If so, what about if you were 99% certain? 95%? 90%? How low would you go? If not, what level of risk would justify less strict guidelines?

Why is Europe so bad at this? I assume I have no chance of going on my Italy trip in August, which really sucks because I have tens of hours of planning into this and I’ll incur a couple thousand dollars of change fees.

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I’d be surprised if EU isn’t open for vaccinated tourists by July.

Tricky part is bringing our kids.

We’re getting into epistemological territory here: The Problem of Induction (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)