COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

Who’s got 2 thumbs and a vaccine appointment at 3pm today? :+1: :+1: This guy!

Despite my part of Canada being a vaccine wasteland right now, my wife somehow managed to find me a dose. Not sure which vaccine it is, but I’d settle for sputnik at this point.

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https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1378741101620654080

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1378741102476337155

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1378754163908091905

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That’s a great thread, and I think this graph does a far better job of explaining how partial herd immunity doesn’t do much than I ever did:

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1378752681309732865

Implications of that graph are significant.

Seeing a lot more cases this week and it’s annoying.

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happy easter!

Yup. It’s more politics influencing public health choices.

It’s the story of most countries. New Zealand seems to be the only country above it all.

My 27 y.o. daughter in Montgomery Co., MD was finally able to schedule a first dose for later this week. At least she’ll be partially vaxxed when I’m there in three weeks (I’m fully vaxxed).

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I get dragged to church on Christmas Eve and Easter and the scene at the 9am outdoor only service was pretty ridiculous. The mask optional area had like 5% mask usage and the mask required area still had less 20% usage??? There were signs and different colored chairs and everything!

Also fucking lol at “like a restaurant”. You’re still suppose to wear a mask just not when eating or drinking. You’re not suppose to take a seat and immediately rip your mask off and gasp for fresh air.

Fits the idea of a quick hard hitting couple week lockdown could go a long way to reducing cases now along with the vaccinations.

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I mean, yeah, a hard lockdown for 4-6 weeks while we vaccinate would really knock down a 4th wave. However, the US manages to hospital capacity. Vaccines+easier to go outdoors means we have almost limitless hospital capacity. Combine it with vaccinating the vulnerable dampening deaths and I think we could get to 2x prior peak cases or higher before even the thought of tightening restrictions popped up in the bluest of states. USA is basically over COVID.

Well I’m doing my part

:ballot_box_with_check: flew first leg
:ballot_box_with_check: went out to eat (outside)
:ballot_box_with_check: walked at state park

Now back at airport. Should cause 10 fatalities, easy.

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Carefully.

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47, M, Edmonton AB. Just became eligible, have a pile of risk factors so went to the front of the line. Damaged lungs from lung cancer about 7 years ago, peripheral arterial disease, recent heart attack, and asthma.

Got the Pfizer. Cell reception unchanged.

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Disturbing trend I’m noticing with my family and some friends is they are relaxing a bunch after getting the first shot. A day or two after the first shot and they are getting together because they are “vaccinated.” Just being so close and everyone letting their guard down is frustrating.

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image

RIP Canada

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Sounds Lutheran?

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Meh. We had a 6 month lockdown in the Czech Republic and the third wave happened anyway…while we were vaccinating people.

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I am super interested to see how much of the spread is going to be due to variants vs lack of compliance with control measures. I don’t think it’s going to be a question that variants will have at least some sort of factor, but how much is an open question.

For Michigan for example, they’re getting slammed. But they also were/are opening up. What really caused the outbreak?

In six weeks basically anyone who wants to
be vaccinated can be in the US. I think knocking down cases one more time before
then would do wonders. Obviously academic it is never happening

That would not have been my first guess.

I haven’t seen much reporting on variants in Michigan.

I do think there is something to opening up after being one of the more closed places. Nothing but virgin immune systems.

Vancouver clearly appears to be P1.

So I’m in the some of both category and the more opening up is too early the more the variants will take root.

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