It is definitely not an off-the-reservation suggestion that maybe it escaped from the Wuhan lab. It was all very well when they were making confident pronouncements like âoh yeah it originated in this wet marketâ and âprobably from a pangolinâ, but now things have reverted back to pure ASCII shrug emoji we should reconsider.
The lab is not merely in Wuhan, itâs just around the corner from the wet market where the outbreak was first detected (edit: not as close as I thought, itâs about 10 miles away). Under the supposition that it escaped from the lab, chances are extremely high that it would first be detected in that area. Under the theory itâs a natural outbreak, itâs a moderately remarkable coincidence. Wuhan has something like 2.8% of the population of the top-50 cities in China, all of which have over 2 million people. Itâs also 1,000 miles away from the presumed source of the virus, meaning the caves in Yunnan province. What are the chances a naturally occurring outbreak would be detected not merely in Wuhan, but in close proximity to the only BSL-4 lab in China, where they are known to study coronaviruses? One in several hundred, maybe?
In a vacuum, a novel coronavirus outbreak is much likelier to have originated naturally than in a lab mishap. Several hundred times likelier? Not so sure about that.
Hard to predict how Covid and variants will evolve â scientist
Prof Peter Openshaw, a member of the governmentâs New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), says it is difficult to predict what will happen next with the evolution of coronavirus and new variants.
He tells BBC Radio 4âs Today programme: âWhat we really find hard to anticipate is in what way itâs going to evolve over the next few months, and particularly over the next winter, and how secure weâre going to be in terms of the level of immunity thatâs been built up not only through vaccination, but also through natural infection in different parts of the world.â
Asked whether the worst-case scenario could potentially involve vaccinated people becoming ill from Covid-19 again due to the variants, Prof Openshaw says the evidence scientists had showed vaccines or immunity from previous infection was âvery efficient at protecting against severe diseaseâ.
However, he says there is âsome concernâ certain variants could be able to âreplicate and pass from person to person" in those who have been vaccinated with the original vaccines developed to combat the strain first identified in Wuhan.
He adds: âSo we need to move with all speed with the next generation of vaccines, which are now based on what is now proven technology but are using the new sequences of the viruses that are emerging, which are of concern.â
4 covid vaccine reaction complaints (all mild) today. Going to take that as a good thing. Also saw one of the covid toes for the first time, think that blacks out my bingo card. Annoying thing is that I canât even talk about my craziest covid scenarios, would violate hipaa.
Iâll even spot them âeveryone else is doing it (exploiting workers) so if I tried to do anything different Iâd get destroyedâ. Thatâs true enough even though it isnât fully true.
But motherfucker if everyone in the industries costs go up youâll be able to either keep prices the same and push more volume or raise prices and keep volume the same. Restaurant lobby types who resist higher labor costs for all are huge assholes.
Raise the price of a plate 2 bucks and suddenly the labor costs will make sense again.
God damn so many people I know are apprehensive about or straight up not getting the vaccine because âreasons.â
One girl was genuinely asking me yesterday how it was safe when daily mail is reporting deaths after getting the vaccine and the msm is âquiet about it.â I looked at the daily mail one and the source is complete garbage.
It does look like thereâs been one or two mysterious deaths after getting vax that almost certainly had nothing to do with the vax itself.
Iâve had a few of these conversations lately and the only thing I can come up with is saying âlook, the possible long term effects of getting covid are unknown and what we do know is kind of scary. Half a million people (and likely way more) are dead in the USA. Your odds are much much higher of dying or having complications from covid than from a bad vaccine reaction. Please get vaccinated.â
Iâm not sure how well itâs working but I think I mightve convinced one of them.
It still hasnât been approved here afaik, so itâd only be people in the trials. I donât know how many that is, but Iâd estimate 10-20k tops, and probably very few side effects.
The UK has adminstered 33m doses of vaccine to 30m people and we only use 2 (AZ and Pfizer). Iâd guestimate 70% are the Oxford University AZ vaccine. UK doing up to 844k doses a day and we only have the Daily Mail reporting the one severe outcome since Dec 2020.
Thereâs no logic. Itâs dumb. But I have a hard time explaining why without being condescending or irritated. Itâs especially hard to get people to think about things in a statistical way when they see something some moron posted in a facebook group about how so and so died after getting the vaccine.
I tried to tell one of them that there are a lot of bots and trolls on fb whose main job is to spread vaccine misinformation. For some reason that was more fantastical to them than the fact there is somehow a global conspiracy thatâs been hiding vaccination reactions/deaths.
But it is tinfoil hat shit. Sure, you donât need to trust our government. I didnât trust a lot of what was coming out of the CDC under the trump administration (and rightly so). You donât need to trust pharmaceutical companies. What we have is GLOBAL data showing this is safe and effective. You just need to trust this data. It would take a massive, global conspiracy to hide bad vaxx reactions on a scale that would be unprecedented in human history. And why? What would be the motive? For a few companies to be enriched by sales of a vaccine that either doesnât work or is dangerous?
It doesnât take a lot of critical thinking to come to the conclusion that the logical thing is to trust the data and the science. This thing has been out for what, 6 months now? We havenât had widespread reports of bad reactions and/or deaths by now. Unless this thing gives you cancer in 25 years, for all intents and purposes it is safe and itâs absolutely tin foily to question it.
I have tried to use analogies like yours. It goes over their heads. We are talking extremely low info people compared to the ones here. In fact, even one of my friends that got the vaxx (That I warned repeatedly about how full effects take a few weeks) is in vegas less than 8 days after receiving his first pfizer dose. Just lol.
Itâs a losing battle but I think I got at least 1 person to go get it today. So I am happy.
It is, but I canât place my finger on how exactly. Both my sisters are complete opposite sides of the political spectrum, and both not getting it for the exact same reason - concerns about fertility or something.
Can confirm that multiple people I know are somehow âon the fenceâ about getting the vaccine. This surprises me greatly. Absolutely not Trumpers. Couple getting close to anti-vax ideas, others just worried we havenât tested anough.
Perhaps not surprisingly, these folks (a couple of them anyway) have been among those MOST worried about covid and most likely to adopt strict protocols.