COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

I got a new iPhone recently with exposure notification and then I turned my Bluetooth off when I went to outdoor church on Christmas Eve with like 200 people.

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iā€™m getting a feeling xmas/nye break will be a super V-shape like thanksgiving. depressing when you realize that vaccine effects probably donā€™t even have a chance to drive the cases/deaths numbers down until well into february or much later.

read another scary article about africa experiencing a wave. of course developed nations will probably vaccinate themselves, and only themselves. but damn, thinking about vaccinating a whole other continent first in order to save lives is a mindfuck.

First day of lockdown here in Ontario. Also happens to be Boxing Day, which used to be the biggest shopping day of the year here before Black Friday became a thing.

Anyway, wife has gone downstairs to meet her cousin who is dropping off some holiday baking. On her way back to the apartment, she shares the elevator with a woman who says sheā€™s just come back from the mall and was surprised everything was closed. My wife, confused, says the lockdown has started and everything is closed except for the food stores and such. To which the other woman replies, ā€œOh, I know, I just figured because it was Boxing Day that some stores would be open.ā€ :man_facepalming:

i have it turned on. it hasnā€™t notified me at all. apparently you can poke around in your exposure data a little. sometime around dec 23 it started showing me 1 matched key. whatever that means.

Definitely the over

The very first people will be immune at the very end of January onwards.

To drive down cases/numbers we need 40/50/60% immune as herd immunity isnā€™t linear but rather most of the benefit is near the herd line.

Plus people are gonna yolo more this spring due to ā€œmost vulnerable are vaccinated so I am morally ok to yolo if I donā€™t care about myself getting itā€

Iā€™d set the line at Summer before the vaccine makes a huge enough dent and Iā€™m probably optimistic there

Deaths should go down sooner than that tho as hopefully most of the vulnerable as well as the front line workers who may get higher load should be vaccinated in the next 3 months, dropping the death rate.

If it really was 10 days ago, it probably wasnā€™t Moderna.

It didnā€™t get approved until 12/18.

Here in Washington we have an app. I havenā€™t installed it though. Main reason is that I think it has very little value for me (and me for it), since my exposure opportunities are limited to a once-a-week visit to the grocery store. I wear a mask and go on Monday mid-mornings so the store is pretty empty. Plus our case rates here are low relative to many other places around the country.

I would install the app if I got around more and/or if there were more cases (exactly how many I couldnā€™t say though).

I enabled it on my iPhone but it said not available in my area (Atlanta)

Kemp probably opted us out.

DC has an app that Iā€™ve installed. Iā€™m not sure how effective it is b/c have no idea what % of DC residents are using it (let alone all the folks from MD and VA who might come into DC but not download the DC app), but itā€™s a little extra piece of mind. Also, it makes me feel better that, if I do happen to get it, I might have a chance to warn others and break a transmission chain.

apparently matched key means you had someone close enough who later self-reported as a positive. the count went from 0 to 1 between dec 23rd 4-8pm. itā€™s not clear if i encountered them during that time or if they reported a positive around then.

Seems a bit weird not to just with brother-in-law here? Is that not the right term for wifeā€™s sisterā€™s husband?

WA state launched one a month ago or thereabouts. My wife and I signed up first day.

Brother in law seems to imply the brother of your spouse

Whereas this is his wifeā€™s sisterā€™s husband

Iā€™m not up to speed on the official terms but I can see using this terminology to be more clear

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I think spouse of your brother is just as legit.

I thought brother-in-law was the term for all of these:

Sibling of spouse
Spouse of sibling
Spouse of Spouseā€™s sibling

It probably is

Also for your sisterā€™s husband

But when it means 3 things itā€™s a bit clearer the way he said it even if not concise or official

Seems to imply some separation as wellā€¦3 degrees of separation rather than 2 degrees

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Think we are going to see some huge records next week. Lots of slow/no reporting due to holidays.

The ā€œlawā€ in ā€œin-lawā€ is canon law and the term refers to people who (under old law that is no longer valid) you would not be allowed to marry because you treat your spouseā€™s relatives as if they were your own. Thus, ā€œin-lawā€ refers to affinity with your spouseā€™s blood relatives. Your spouse is not related by blood to their siblingā€™s spouse, so that person would not be your in-law.

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I was always operating under Nichā€™s definition. No idea if it is unpopular or wrong.

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Iā€™ve sometimes thought about using BILIL, to denote the further separation from me.

Well you may need to take that up with the dictionary writers: