COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

There really is no rationality whatsoever. My mom has now mentioned about 20 times that my (right-wing) cousin who also lives in LA flew back for Xmas. Clearly someone actually loves his parents. Never mind that my other cousin with some sense did not.

She’s also decided she’s absolutely heartsick that my Dad (divorced since I was 5) will be spending Christmas alone - even though my Dad usually spends Christmas alone, is fine with it, and definitely wants nothing to do with a big party this year.

And she’s decided she needs daily updates that I’m ok from Costa Rica even though she knows I went through much more dangerous places a couple years ago. LA is more dangerous than Costa Rica.

And for the coup de grace she just informed me that Christmas Eve will be a “Big Party!” this year. This after about 30 discussions between us where she assured me she understands the risks and is taking it very very seriously.

I honestly can’t figure out if she’s being deliberately passive aggressive or just completely irrational.

Oh yeah and my sister - who has an auto-immune disease, is now hosting her deplorable MIL as usual for Christmas. Absolutely zero telling her no or making her stay in a motel.

Based on all the stories itt I think I lucked out and got a top 5% family because my parents and grandparents were 100% on board with not doing any Christmas or NYE gatherings. I didn’t even have to bring it up or convince them. My parents and I had a fire in the backyard a few day ago and we exchanged gifts, that’s it

5 Likes

So in the period tested 2 out of about 1300 nurses that already had antibodies later tested positive.

That was very roughly 10% of the antibody negative infections rate. (223 out of 11k)

Neither of the 2 had symptoms.

About half of the 223 had symptoms.

They were followed for 6 months.

The fact that the incidence was 2 people make the stats down their tricky. Clear the rate is much less but that neither had symptoms doesn’t say a lot to me.

I still don’t believe I’ve seen any reports of second infections resulting in significant illness.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545

Just a normal December day in a pandemic no one cares about! Christmas reckoning is going to be depressing.

4 Likes

My Dad and his gf are talking some risks around the edges but nothing like what you are describing. Not happy they are having an outdoor Xmas dinner in Arizona with another couple tomorrow. But no big gatherings. Of course there could be stuff we don’t know about.

My FIL’s gf has a daughter-in-law that has very strict rules around seeing her 2 year old so they toe the line very well.

Definitely weird seeing former poker players act like 95% ~= 100%

1 Like

In the Moderna trial (didn’t look at Pfizer), the vaccine was 100% effective at preventing severe COVID.

1 Like

It’s the math, even if there could asymptomatic spread it’s likely to be very limited.

Herd via vaccination works because of two reasons- community incidence and the folks you interact with aren’t carriers.

Nothing is 100% unless extinction occurs.

You’ve got control of the grandchildren. I don’t think you have to worry about any long term grudge.

2 Likes

I say lean into this big time. Mail them a piece of a grandkid every time they piss you off.

25 Likes

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-florida-covid-secrecy-numbers-ss-prem-20201224-54chmifzc5ehdje7ps7igcbvb4-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Roberson is allegedly the one that gave “she who must not be named” the direct order to change data.

i wasn’t going to weigh in on my family situation, but this appears to be one of the buttons. grudges happen anyway. stay vigilant.

deplorable dad had been sliding downhill pretty quickly for six months now that he’s living all alone. he has mostly ignored me for last few years, because i don’t have kids. he used to be able to see his oldest grandkids (hs seniors now), but he ruined that relationship decades ago and cannot move to make amends. it’s close to four years since he has spent any time with them. after posting a very thinly veiled threat on fb, he was rightly shown a protective order by a sheriff and told to surrender his guns. he’s likely not going to be able to see his other grandson (toddler) either because of this and the pandemic and not being in driving distance. honestly i can’t even imagine having to protect your kids from their elderly grandparent… because of grudges.

anyways, week three of me and him not having any desire to call each other. i am assuming he’s down a conspiracy rabbit hole every day and probably getting worse. yet it’s still christmas eve… which we don’t even celebrate.

2 Likes

pfizer has demonstrated 95% effectiveness 4 weeks from the first vaccination (1 week after the second vaccination)

Person B was the unvaccinated individual

I cannot stress this enough. The idea that there would be efficient asymptomatic spread of a respiratory virus through people who have been successfully vaccinated flies against everything we know about fundamental things about germ theory.

We don’t have definitive proof this because it wasn’t studied and it doesn’t really need studying.

well then I have no idea what you mean.

you don’t need a negative test to get a vaccine, therefore, if you were asymtomatic and were vaccinated, how long after you were vaccinated would you stop transmitting the virus?

It would be the same as whatever it’d be if you had it. Different sources put 10 to 14 days, my hospital makes me do 21 for patients who are admitted. The vaccine wouldn’t change anything.

if it slows asymptomatic spread, we could still get there. E.g. say that it’s 95% effective at stopping illness but only 70% effective at stopping transmission, with enough people vaccinated you should still get to herd immunity.