Jerk off of a boss didn’t provide the registration code to allow my colleagues and I to register for a vaccine appointment. Said we were gonna get it Saturday morning and we didn’t.
93,000 teachers already registered. Tomorrow, people over 60 get to register. Good to know that I’ll end up waiting until June for my first shot. God this country is so fucked.
Actually, the 1 - 1/R0 term is the mirror image of the (1 - % immune) term you’re questioning.
No, it’s not.
When % immune equals the herd immunity percentage, new infections = past infections * R0 * (1 - (1 - /R0)) = past * R0 * (1/R0) = stable infection rate
Again, no, this equation is not exponential.
and then declining after that as % immune increases. In the basic model, for a given level of active infections, population immunity is a linear reduction in the number of new cases.
You have not shown this. I don’t see a reason to continue this discussion further.
Also remember the R0 in the equation for herd immunity is the natural R0 with normal life. Everything is open, no masking.
The higher the natural R0, the higher percent immune required to see the effect.
R0 is essentially a constant in the formal sense.
The US definition of herd immunity is that the hospitals don’t overflow without restrictions. I feel pretty confident the vaccines will get us to US definition of herd immunity.
This post isn’t wrong I suppose, but it made me angry nonetheless.
The truth hurts.
We might already be there. Even if restrictions are lifted a lot of people will mask up and distance anyway. Lifting of restrictions is definitely not going to lead to 100% DGAF, and even with restrictions, we’re probably at about 50% DGAF in most places right now.
Felt like we should just change the current one. It’s absolute perfection and this thread doesn’t move that fast anymore.
Jabs, Chills, and Variants
I was angry when I wrote it, so, understandable. Angry at the easing of indoor restrictions everywhere when this is the easiest decision ever to remain cautious for a short period longer.
We’re heading into allergy season. I’d put my money on that
Pills, Thrills and Bellyaches
Somehow still a great album after all these years for reasons nobody will ever be able to explain.
Yeah, the news seems really good on the vaccine front. Anyone who wants a vaccine is gonna get one in April:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1366026420389105666
It’s legit.
I’m going to believe this when I see it. I really hope I see it, but can all these pharmacies just triple their pace at a moment’s notice? Biden keeps mentioning that its not just about supply, but also about having the people to get vaccines into arms, and I believe him.
Seems like everyone is saying they have the capacity to do x/day and just need more product.
the study was a bit small, and they pulled the placebo group in the middle. they probably fudged the numbers to be 91% or whatever, but it had the same protection against serious cases as other vaccines.
Register with your county health department too. At least in the NOVA counties everyone I know who had done both got appointments through the county before the state.
On this day in 2020, the Czech Republic confirmed its first covid cases. Back then, we were told specific information about each person. We were told where they got it, what region they live in, their age, and if it was community spread.
One year later and those days have long since gone.
Some stats (accurate as of February 28th):
Total cases: 1,240,501
Percent of Czech population who has or had covid: 11.6%
Total deaths: 20,469
Death rate: 1.7%
Total healed: 10,706,22
% Healed: 86.3%
Active cases: 146,960 (12% of total cases)
Percent of Czech population with active covid infection: 1.4%
Total PCR tests: 5,372,614
% Positive PCR Tests: 23.1%
Total Antigen Tests (started November 2nd, 2020): 2,694,526
% Positive Antigen Tests: Unreleased