COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

Like Wichita’s side… if it was deaths it would have been too easy imo.

Probably already posted but

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So, through a strange quirk in the system, I was able to get vaccinated at Cal State LA today as an educator even though LA County Proper educators are not eligible because I live in Long Beach where, despite being in LA County, educators are in fact currently eligible and able to make appointments at facilities outside of Long Beach.

I brought all my paperwork to prove that I am in fact an educator, although an iffy one as a test prep instructor, but I genuinely qualify. However, none of my paperwork was checked except my ID. As long as you make an appointment on the My Turn site, you are sent through.

I provide this information because I know there a number of others here who are in the EDUCATION field who will correctly select LONG BEACH even though that’s not really a county because even though many of you live elsewhere throughout the L.A. area you all teach a class or two in Long Beach which means you are eligible.

No appointments available now but I assume at some point they will drop the load for next week which I don’t believe has been done beyond Sunday. I could be wrong.

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Australia’s vaccine order is mostly a guarantee to buy the locally produced AstraZenica vaccine which they supposedly will then give to the Pacific Island nations followed by Indonesia. It is not like they will keep more than they need themselves.

Can you put “and now the 5g is amazing” on the back?

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Word on the street is that if you say you live in Oakland you can get vaccinated and there aren’t any checks

Not sure what to make of this. Don’t think it’s particularly compelling evidence.

It’s not an RCT. It’s very much in a sample of people that are not representative of the general population of Israel (all HCWs), much less the USA or the world. It’s also only 75% effective overall.

This is very cool. Contains some scenarios around how fast we reach herd if we tighten, remain the same, or relax social distancing.

We get to herd faster if we YOLO because do the increase in infection acquired immunity. It come at the steep cost of an extra couple of hundred thousand dead (though I don’t know how they factor vaccinating the vulnerable first).

Seems much more realistic than the Johns Hopkins guy in WSJ oped.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1362880620343484416?s=21

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If it is true that you can often get covid from shorter interactions with two or more infected people even if each individual interaction is not long enough that would help explain why cases are going down faster than expected
. If immune people go from zero pct to fifty pct an single lengthy interactions chances of giving you covid goes down by about half. But the chances you get infected by a double interaction goes down by three quarters. A triple interaction by about seven eighths.

This would only be true if you need exposure from different carriers to be infected, which is almost certainly not the case. If the variable is number of contact minutes with an infected person, then your expected number of contact minutes should equal total contact minutes times percentage of infected. Multi contact infection scenarios would actually drop off exponentially as expected infected contact minutes falls below the critical value.

But also, there aren’t that many infected people out there at any given point in time (max 1% maybe), so it’s hard to believe that single-source infections aren’t dominant anyways.

Agree. Most of the pandemic is driven by super-spreaders infecting a high number of people.

Why are people talking about herd immunity for something that you can get multiple times?

Also, any ideas when COVID will be over? Asking for a friend.

Getting it twice seems to be pretty rare.

See Manaus, Brazil (Old covid vs Brazilian variant)

I recall someone saying their family member was a nurse and got it multiple times (in after 3rd hand anecdote). I am not a doctor/scientist or knowledgeable on the Vids.

There’s a lot of hedging on statements related to possible reinfection in Manaus. I wouldn’t go about stating it as fact.

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Yes. It’s still extremely rare.

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Me and moms got our 2nd shots yesterday. I was worried about her reading some of the reactions to the 2nd shot. 1st shot I felt nothing but a bit of a sore arm, mom was pretty achy/fatigued.

2nd shot mom is fine. Basically same thing, achy fatigued. I on the other hand got wrecked. fever/chills, headache, and pretty achy. I assume my immune system just has a much stronger response to it?

Feel ok now, just a lil achy/fatigued. Also weirdly not hungry. Haven’t eaten all day which is weird.

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