I’m saying only 18.5% of the UK’s had it (post UK variant which is ~40% more transmissable) + 10% vaccinated means the US (on average) is 30% at best to have some form of immunity, immunity against old covid, for maybe 9 months, if that Uk variant doesn’t take hold, which it is everywhere else…
IMO - Just a race to vaccine and vaccine the right population, so deaths start to decrease cause transmission will still be rife.
“One, we came off of really high numbers from the holidays," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told CNN.
“Second, there is pretty good evidence that people are doing a better job of social distancing and mask wearing. Third, I think in a lot of communities, we’ve had so much infection that you have some level of population immunity. Not herd immunity, but enough population immunity that it is causing the virus to slow down.”
We don’t really know that.
UK can sample, US really has no clue so, yah, you are correct your side of the pond (but stats from elsewhere, maybe earlier in the pandemic and earlier in the vaccination programme might show 50% immunity is a tad optimistic
18.5% (max) large, regular sample size…
After vaccine (only over 60 yrs old vaccinated in UK)
I agree with that too. We don’t know for sure how many have had it other than now a significant portion of the population has.
All I’m saying is that at this point the people in my life who were covid deniers have pretty much all had it while the other people who have taken it seriously hardly any have had it.
We have essentially been living in a segregated society based on people’s covid views. Its very possible that your average group of people at a bar has something mimicking herd immunity while they are there at this point because so many of them have now had it that spread is 0% there now while it was rampant there just a few months ago. Something like that would greatly affect the stats.
Not really, tho. Still sort of tough to extrapolate to the entire country.
I’d suggest the UK might have a better indication of % with antibodies than a couple of other larger countries… that’s all
You realize the percentage of cases getting sequenced means jack shit in this context?
yah, please show me the link to the US measuring antiboies per capita? ITT we seem to be guessing but surely this is being measured?
In this context, measuring 0.3% of cases means you don’t really know the enemy… ergo, a drop in cases must be the weather, various North American social distancing traits not employed by ROW, might be done to no. of hrs from GMT… anything’s possible
Lots of people who don’t actively have antibodies almost certainly have had covid and immunity.
So US has sequenced more cases than every other country combined except for UK, and US also can’t sequence? OK
Yes, I thought that people who were infected often retain some level of immunity even when there are no present antibodies.
From previous discussions I think it is T cell immunity but others more qualified than I can probably comment on it.
0.3% is lower than 58.6%
Viewed another way, US must be worse at this than any other country as they’ve has more deaths - 0.5 miliion (let’s forget per capita as you seem to)
Like anyone ITT should be looking at US stats on covid and thinking, ‘umm, these guys know something none of ROW have caught on to’
Hopefully, Bidens 3x investment in surveillance as opposed to testing will pay fruits soon and there won’t be this US guessing game.
If only we had sequenced more maybe we would be doing as well as UK
We’re at 100k deaths on 66m population so you’re doing better, until mid March when you’ll wish you’d measured the rise of the variants a little closer… either that, or covid will mystically just disappear… becuase ‘partial herd immunity’ (four card flush) or vaccines kicking in (it’s a race)
I’m hoping Moderna and Pfizer complete those real life trials soon and shows us 95% real world effectiveness (not lab efficacy) is a thing bearing in mind a significant few mutations since they were designed during 48 hours in Feb 2020 - then we’ll be good
I’ll gladly bet the US has already seen it’s peak for daily deaths or cases for 2021 if you want.
This is incorrect. Exponential math doesn’t work that way
what odds might you be offering, bearing in mind the plummeting trends and my lonely position on the forecasts?
I’d do 2:1 on deaths. My 500 to your 250 if you want.
