Nah these things usually hit a peak and decline pretty quickly. We could see a long tail or another wave, who knows.
1 Like
Yeah, all of the traveling and large gatherings between Thanksgiving and New Years were a dream for COVID.
Luckily Super Bowl didnāt seem to have a major impact, largely because most people donāt travel for that. I would also hypothesize that the people who went to Super Bowl parties were also doing other things that created exposure, so Super Bowl parties werenāt a big source of incremental risk.
1 Like
Denmark, most prolific genomic sequencer in the world.
Denmark cases of UK variant as a percentage of total positive cases
7 Jan '21 - 3.7% (<4%)
14 Feb '21 - 45%
I suspect similar is happening in the US, only difference being that US covid surveillance is in its infancy and Denmark has been in national lockdown since early Jan '21.
Big falls in Denmark cases but big increases behind the scenesā¦
I sure fucking hope so. We need some good news - the Limbaugh effect wore off this morning for me.
Probably closer to 95%. But the best news about the vaccine is that almost no one who has received it has gotten seriously ill with COVID.
1 Like
just got scheduled for the Moderna vaccine for next Friday. hard not to feel guilty, but at the same time excited.
7 Likes
Well it makes sense that a large chunk of the vulnerable people have gotten it. The last big spike probably needs to come from a bunch of wfh office drones (like a lot of us) saying fuck it and licking doorknobs, or a new mutation that can infect people who already got it very sick. Or maybe there are still enough essential workers and anti-mask morons out there to make one more spike.
As Trolley mentioned, there does seem to be a spike and all effect anywhere you look. IE - Manaus - which might be as close to a naked mole rat colony as weāre going to get - considering very few can work from home or really isolate. So a crash now doesnāt mean this thing doesnāt have one last spike in it.
1 Like
The most obvious answer to the drop off is that Covid immunity has probably been acquired by maybe half of the US by now either through getting it or getting vaccinated. Most of the people engaging in risky behavior are immune. Of the people who have taken precautions, relaxing precautions just prior to getting vaccinated doesnāt make a lot of sense.
It isnāt herd immunity or close but the virus is probably having a pretty hard time spreading at bars and restaurants right now for those reasons. That wasnāt true last fall/early winter.
1 Like
The problem with this theory is where they can measure it and have been vaccinating as long as US, they state that no real effect will be felt for several months.
Do you think US has vaccinated say 10% of the vulnerable population yet? My guess is US doesnāt really know who and what age has been vaccinated. Needing 80% vaccinated to hit the herd seems a little way off to prematurely put a predictable drop in cases (which lag infection) down to 10% vaccinated (IMO) - no real immunity until 3 weeks after first dose = vaccination lag too
I hear the US has reported ~1,170 deaths (0.003%) post first dose, obviously nowt to do with the vaccine but those stats still built in too
You didnāt have like a shirt or piece of clothing you could tie around your face?
Honestly I kind of think it might be this too. Respiratory viruses in general like this (even the ones that become endemic) do seem to have always followed a similar path.
Probablyā¦ Itās all a matter of chance and how much viral load your an absorb how quickly. Being in there for 20-30 seconds is certainly magnitudes lower risk then being in there for 15 minutes. But, I mean, if someone had literally just sneezed a minute prior and then you walked inā¦ But yourāe probably fine.
Maybe make your own sarnies til you get the jab - at least until Jnrās had it in his arm for 3 weeks, IMO
Should we have the moment of silence now or should we wait forā¦you know
you should be fine
1 Like
I maintain, as I have for many many months now, that there is some confounding environmental factor we arenāt fully appreciating. Behavior hasnāt changed all that much between massive exponential growth (October/November) to turning the corner (December) to precipitous downfall (January/February). Weāve seen this same pattern all over the world, in places with extreme outbreaks and minor outbreaks alike.
The graphs look nearly identical in the USA (~10% of the population confirmed positive, cumulatively), Canada (~3% of the population confirmed positive), and Japan (~0.25% of the population confirmed positive).
Partial herd immunity definitely plays a part, surely. How strict we are about masks and social distancing is huge, but I think itās huge over time, rather than making a huge immediate impact. It determines whether 10% of the country has cumulatively pozzed, or <1%āit is the difference between us and Japan. But I feel that thereās some extraneous factor, Iām guessing related to the environment and our vulnerability to the disease with changing weather, that must of massive importance driving these surges and retreats.
Disclaimer: the above is unfounded conjecture.
2 Likes
Iām saying it is a combo with the vast majority being people who had covid.