COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

It’s called a grift

Right - I’m complaining about NYC and LA.

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NIR ? It’s used in recycling sorting facilities to sort types of plastic.

I don’t see if it’s says what the technology is?

Why? Is it more harm if someone has to wait a little longer for their second dose, or more harm if 1000s more people die because it takes forever to get shots in arms?

Lasers man!

https://twitter.com/bachscore/status/1355932981748244486?s=21

  • The coronavirus gospel of ‘within six feet for more than 15 minutes’ wasn’t enough—and the NFL had the data to prove it*
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If you’re interested in this type of stuff, you might consider consulting statistics instead of random Tweets.

New York has actually administered more vaccines per capita than New Hampshire, although the figures are pretty close. California is lagging behind, but it’s certainly not the worst state (Alabama). CDC COVID Data Tracker

In many states, the bottleneck is clearly lack of supply rather than distribution capacity or lack of demand.

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That doesn’t mean there can’t still be slack in the system.

This seems to work non-paywalled somehow.

It counted people as having been exposed to the virus if they had unmasked, indoor interactions with an infected person for any length of time.

It also wasn’t simply time. It was distance, too. The virus, in some instances, traveled farther than six feet—especially in small, poorly ventilated areas. And masks, more than the duration of contact, seemed to matter a lot.

This seems pretty reasonable.

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That makes me feel better about it, at least. Hopefully the new vaccine will get approved and help replenish supply chains.

This is a long-term project where the goal is minimizing the time it takes to get the second shot for everyone. I’m willing to go a bit slower at the onset in order to get the logistics right. I don’t think rushing now means that we can reopen things safely sooner or that it will be my turn that much closer.

I’m patient and I don’t have a desire for instant gratification.

This may be true. But it doesn’t matter how many vaccines per capita you’ve distributed. You shouldn’t have fully staffed centers with lots of vaccine to give and no arms to jab it in.

Perhaps it is an isolated incident. But it’s still bad. And there are enough such anecdotes that I think is reasonable to conclude that there is a lot of suboptimal distribution going on.

I do agree though that we’ve turned the corner and the dominant bottleneck is now supply. But I don’t think that means we should neglect the lesser bottlenecks.

It’s not clear that pursuit of this specific goal will lead to the fewest COVID deaths.

The sooner we get people vaccinated the sooner this will be over - no matter when it ends, and the fewer people will die. IMO perfect is the enemy of good when it comes to getting as much vaccine into people’s arms as fast as possible.

I don’t think the goal should be simply minimizing COVID deaths.

Well, maybe not “simply”, but that’s clearly #1, imo.

What’s your #1 goal?

Yes bu you should compare with what schools are doing. The desks next to you. But two desks over? No way you can catch it. Unpossible

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Does this mean you prefer the UK strategy for delaying the second dose for 12 weeks?

Reduce spread. Will get the deaths down and minimize the mutants and reduce the number of folks w long effects.

Vax the most vulnerable. After that just as many as fast as you can.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/31/covid-coronavirus-updates/

Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the variants signal that “this virus is going to continue to mutate as long as it’s allowed to thrive in the world.”

“It’s important for us to really do what we can to contain this virus,” Inglesby said in an interview on “Fox News Sunday.”

Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and an adviser to Biden’s coronavirus task force, said it may be time to “call an audible” on vaccine distribution in response to the growing risk from variants. He called for prioritizing first vaccine doses ahead of a variant-fueled surge in cases

Osterholm said he expeΩcts to see a surge of cases in the next “six-to-14 weeks” from variants, such as the strain first found in Britain.

“If we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tells us we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” he said in an interview Sunday on NBC News’s “Meet the Press.”

“We still want to get two doses in everyone,” Osterholm added, but in advance of a surge, “we need to get as many one doses in as many people over 65 as we possibly can to reduce the serious illness and deaths that are going to occur over the weeks ahead.”

Scott Gottlieb, a former director of the Food and Drug Administration, warned that Miami and parts of Southern California are at the “highest risk” of becoming overrun by variants, specifically pointing to the variant first found in Britain.

“What we’re likely to see is regionalized epidemics with this new variant, and the two places in the country right now that are the biggest hot spots are Southern California and southern Florida, Miami. Those cities need to be very mindful of the spread of these variants,” Gottlieb said Sunday on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”

He said vaccinations could help curb that spread.

“As we immunize more of the population, and if people continue to wear masks and be vigilant in these parts of the country, we can keep this at bay," he said. “It’s not too late, but it’s a real risk to those regions of the country right now.”

Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned in a tweet that the virus could eventually evolve to a point where vaccines may not be protective.

“The Covid variants identified so far are an early warning that the virus could evolve to escape vaccine protection,” Frieden wrote. “The way to prevent that is to BOTH ramp up vaccinations and control spread.”