I was just listening to armchair expert and they were saying Melbourne has zero cases. How is this possible? I can see having very low rates but zero seems hard to believe in a city that size.
You know what will really help these people? A weeks worth of minimum wage pay!
USA! USA! USA!
2 Likes
More than 30 countries have banned UK arrivals because of concerns at the spread of a new variant of coronavirus.
Meanwhile, coronavirus cases in the UK rose by 35,928 on Sunday - nearly double the number recorded seven days previously.
1 Like
Yeah the LA Times also published an article about how to safely shop for groceries. One of the suggestions was to try to only shop once every two weeks instead of every week. Between my wife and I we probably go every other day, which I guess is our biggest leak right now. I wear an N95 and am in-and-out, but still.
I think you may be overstating the probability of this happening and its severity.
- Itâs easy to think about viruses like HIV and influenza and think that since this is a virus, it can just as easily escape vaccines, but coronaviruses are a wholly different class compared to those two. The spike proteins sticking out of the capsid are fundamental both to what they are and how they infect. Influenza and HIV arenât as tightly bound to a mechanism like that. This is a pretty tight constraint on the exploration space available to evolution, that it has to leave a functional spike, and it has to have a spike. So, while itâs not impossible that a spike mutation both helps the virus escape one or more of these vaccines while still leaving it functional, there will always be a spike protein to target.
- The mutation rate of these viruses is very slow compared with many viruses, and with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the rate at which we can update the vaccines is quite fast. The miracle of the mRNA vaccine approach is that all that needs to be changed in response to a mutation is that mRNA, and changing the mRNA is both easy (outside of edge cases like long stretches of the same nucleotide in a row, synthesizing any one mRNA is no more difficult than synthesizing another) and obvious (we donât have to design something novel to compensate for the mutation; we literally just use the mutated sequence as the new mRNA).
So, the answer to what we we do is, we sequence the new virus (a trivial process that can be done inside of a day or two, depending on the technology), and we use that to update the vaccines. They will have to be tested, but that should be faster the next time around, and travel restrictions, soft lockdowns, and masks can be used to buy us time.
On the flip side, these vaccines are so effective that I think weâre drawing live to virtual eradication. Like, another coronavirus disease coming along is basically certain, but the particulars of MERS and SARS-CoV-1 are basically gone for good (due more to their properties than a vaccine, but theyâre still gone). I think our most likely outcomes fall somewhere between that and annual routine vaccinations, not annual instances of panic-buying toilet paper and lockdowns.
12 Likes
Did a Costco run in Orange County yesterday. It was busy but not insane given the time of year. Everyone masked. I think Im just gonna drop off presents and go on Xmas. Bros 50th B-day is Dec 30. Sorry bro. Have to deal with my car lease ending Jan 23rd, including some minor paperwork and repairs.
I wasnt trying to put a probability on it, so no worries there. Glad to hear the optimistic take on the end game. Dont feel great about USA #1 dealing with the âbuy more timeâ part of it, but if outcomes like âthis mutates faster than our ability to roll out a vaccination programâ or âdue to mutations 95% effective vaccine now 65% effective vaccineâ arent really on the table then I will just go back to cocooning and waiting for 2022 to arrive.
Christmas definitely weird. Having a small gathering of 7 masked up and covid testing before attending being mandatory. Normally itâs a gathering of 30+
My amazing sisterâs willing to make a round trip to have her awesome bro safely visit some family in Philly. Wouldnât go if I had to travel on a long haul bus.
1 Like
No grocery delivery in LA?
Itâs definitely available. We started shopping for ourselves again around June. I was getting increasingly uncomfortable with the idea of paying someone to take the risk for me. And, selfishly, the primary reason we shop so much is to get produce, which Iâd really rather choose myself.
I donât know, Iâm rarely within 6 feet of someone for more than a few seconds and am wearing a real NIOSH N95, so it still doesnât feel that dangerous. At first we were scared of smear transmission, then it seemed like that wasnât that big of a deal, so now Iâm wondering if I should go back to being worried about it.
3 Likes
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1340313659034267649
https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1340377410806689792
1 Like
Cuomo has asked airlines to require pre-boarding tests for passengers coming from UK to NY area airports. British Airways has agreed. Delta and Virgin Atlantic considering.
Should be doing this for every flight.
Shit I took a PCR test 2 days before flying thinking that it was already mandatory and I havenât shown it to anyone but my mother.
So Kent, UK may be the new Wuhan in the new ENGLAND VIRUS. Seems the new variant is gaIning traction ITT, albeit 3 days after I broke it and nameless posters banged on about it being NBD / shitty source etc.
The variant doubles transmission rates to 6-7 days from the usual 10 days if matters are really raging. This only becomes a problem when itâs in your country I guess, other than the obvious drop in efficacy I suspect the vaccines will share and report within next 2 weeks (probably a minor drop - I hope Iâm wrong).
I would watch Californiaâs transmission doubling time with interest - seems to be going quick there and whilst itâs easy to state âmust have been a lax populationâ the reason the UK noticied the variant was because cases were still increasing and rapido during national lockdown (all of November)
1 Like
Amazon Fresh? Walmart is pretty good for grocery pickup too.
Instacart and others who just have people shop for you are bad unless youâre particularly vulnerable, but I think the first-party delivery services avoid product ever going out to the shelves so theyâre less risky.
Pretty good article on the meatpackers
Churchill bud, Iâm struggling here. I want to help you, but what in the world are you talking about? Please post your actual sources instead of your interpretation of them, because you clearly do not understand what youâre reading.
6 Likes
Credit to churchill for creating a scarier form of the virus!
4 Likes