730k
Ok. How does that disprove my point that he hasnât worked up a concrete plan that he can start implementing day 1? Floating ideas is great and all but that isnât what Iâm talking about. Dicking around for months after he gets in office before doing anything meaningful is going to cost a lot of lives.
Also I never said Biden and his team arenât aware of the issues. I said they have no plan to address them as of today. At least not one they have publically discussed. That is true. If anything your article saying their plans are âin fluxâ is exactly what I am being critical of.
I did say I donât think Biden âgets itâ and what I meant by that is that he doesnât get that this isnât something he can workshop for a couple months after getting into office and then roll something out a few months from now. He should have spent the last two months doing that. The fact they publically admit they have no plan is exactly what I mean when I say he doesnât get it.
So 2 years at that pace. Itâs unacceptable although your county is doing better than most.
I mean, vaccine supply is a problem too. If J&J comes back good in a few days, thatâs a game changer. If not, we need to figure out how to force Moderna and Pfizer to scale up, because this shit isnât getting it done.
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As promised, I ignored updating my numbers through the holiday season.
The goodâwe at least diverged off the worst case Cuse asked me to project, right around Xmas. 28 day cfr is down in the 1.5% range.
The badâThe data is still wonky so Iâm unsure how this will hold. Very likely that the case data is being impacted by testing limits. National positivity is in the mid-teens.
The uglyâits still a fuck ton of disease and death with no downturn in sight, maybe a plateau. Even a linear increase should get us to 7DRA 4k/day by early Feb.
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From what Iâm reading, Bidenâs response doesnât seem to be at all as dysfunctional as youâre making it out to be.
What is his day 1 response. Explain it to me? We are a week away.
It might take 3-4 months to develop the sort of plan you want. It sounds like the Trump administration has not been doing much in this direction and may be concealing information to make it harder for the Biden transition team, perhaps intentionally to make Biden look bad.
Bidenâs aggravation is rooted in the rush to build the foundation for an extended inoculation effort, a complex undertaking that includes untangling all manner of bureaucratic obstacles â from staffing issues to technology problems and insurance coverage dilemmas â that the transition had expected to already be well underway, 11 people close to the transition told POLITICO.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/11/biden-coronavirus-vaccine-goal-problems-457245
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Another issue is getting the states to cooperate with the government.
Not gonna look good for Republican governors when they decide to work with a Democratic administration rather than against it.
So fire him and get a new Covid coordinator? Sounds like Biden agrees with me that things arenât where they need to be in that article. There is also this gem:
âThe vaccination effort has been further hampered by divisions within Bidenâs own team, most recently over the decision to keep Gen. Gustave Perna in his role as chief operating officer of Operation Warp Speed, the governmentâs vaccine accelerator.â
Biden is keeping the head of Trumpâs vaccine push. What the fuck.
Look I get Biden is inheriting a mess. I get this is a complicated issue. I donât expect him to be a miracle worker. But that Politico article should be a huge red flag. Half of it is devoted to infighting within Bidenâs Covid team. Of course Biden wants to fix it which is a step up from Trump. All Iâm saying is it isnât clear at all they have made any progress actually formulating a concrete plan to get 10x more shots in arms anytime soon. That is what we need to accomplish to actually be meaningfully done with Covid by 2022.
Iâm suggesting they might not have access to relevant information needed to formulate a good plan until the inauguration. How would you have them work around that constraint?
Biden will leverage his long time friendship with Covid to come to a sensible bipartisan agreement with the virus. Vaccination is too divisive.
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Iâve said it previously but I would have formed a task force with every governor/state willing to come to the table back in December. I would have listened to what the real world problems they are having on the ground are and had my experts formulate plans to solve them. They could have worked around Trumpâs blockade that way.
Iâm also not saying I have the answers for how to fix it. Iâm saying the clock is ticking and speed matters with this issue. Every day that goes by with this nightmare of a vaccine rollout is literally costing people their lives. It does sound like they are working on a plan but the fact they donât have one yet is worrying to me.
The administration did delay giving Bidenâs transition team necessary information to formulate strategies. Itâs unsurprising that theyâre behind.
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What if this is close to as fast as they can go pre-inauguration?
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If it is then I am wrong and they deserve a lot of credit. I hope I am wrong.
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Alright, thanks for the feedback. I snagged an appointment to get vaccinated this Friday. Not sure if itâs Moderna or Pfizer.
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Actually, I think this attack is misguided too. The distribution disaster is the current kink in the pipeline, so it urgently needs to be fixed, but the last mile stuff is really not that hard. I mean, we had 60 million people vote in person on a single day last year. Giving someone a shot is not harder than registering their vote. You can have 25 guys roll up in a refrigerated truck to a public park, whip out some card tables and bam, youâve got a vaccination center that can process 5-10k people a day. The distribution bottleneck is going to disappear as soon as thereâs an administration that gives a shit, leaving production as the fundamental problem.
Yeah, Iâm cautiously optimistic that weâll be experiencing a huge rampup in the next couple of months. Locally, Ohio State has announced that theyâll be using the Schottenstein Center for mass vaccinations starting next week, estimating 3k per day:
Iâd like to think that any major university or arena could do the same thing.
I donât see how the attack can be misguided when basically Biden himself admits he is frustrated they dont have a plan yet in the Politico article above.
As for the rest of your post I agree with it. Distribution should be doable with a competent plan from an administration who cares. The Biden admin definitely cares. But distribution is the first problem to solve. You can manufacture all the vaccine in the world and it wonât matter if you canât effectively distribute it. As of today we have a shockingly small percentage of vaccine produced a month ago in arms so distribution obviously is a problem.